MELBOURNE, Australia -- Despite Pirelli's hopes that the combination of the ultra-soft, super-soft and soft compound tyres would result in a tight choice between a one- and two-stop strategy this weekend, Sunday's race is likely to be a nailed on one-stop. The added risk of making an extra pit stop and the 60km/h speed limit through the pit lane means there is little incentive to stop twice, even if the theoretical race time was marginally quicker.
Based on Friday practice data, the ultra-soft tyre was 0.3s per lap faster than the super-soft in race trim (and 0.6-0.7s faster in quali trim) while the soft was only 0.4s slower than the ultra-soft. Pirelli believes that will tempt the teams to opt for the soft compound over the super-soft for their second stint in the hope of less degradation, but with the super-soft only degrading at 0.01s per lap on Friday, teams may still stick with a combination of ultra-soft and super-soft across their two stints. What's more cooler temperatures on Sunday compared to Friday should suit the ultra-soft and super-soft, which are both at their best in lower temperatures than the soft compound.
The Red Bull cars are the only two in the top ten that will start the race on the super-soft, which should allow them to continue to around lap 34 before making a pit stop. The rest of the top ten is likely to pit from lap 20 onwards to exchange their ultra-softs for either super-softs or softs. It's unlikely the Red Bull strategy will provide the opportunity to overcut the Mercedes and Ferraris ahead (Red Bull's race pace in Friday practice was 0.2s per lap slower than Mercedes and 0.1s slower than Ferrari) but it will allow Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo to attack on a faster, softer tyre at the end of the race when the track is fully rubbered in.
Based on historical data, there is a 60 percent chance of a Safety Car at some point during the race, which is the only reason a team might opt for a two-stop strategy