The FIDE Candidates 2024 is heating up, with just two rounds to go there's a three-way tie in the Open Candidates and a two-player battle in the Women's Candidates. Here we break down the scenarios possible, with a special focus on the five Indians participating in the tournament:
Open Candidates
A reminder of what the table looks like:
FIDE Candidates Tournament (Open):
Nepomniachtchi, Nakamura, Gukesh (7.5)
Caruana (7)
Praggnanandhaa (6)
Vidit (5)
Firouzja (4.5)
Abasov (3)
D Gukesh - 1st (7.5 points)
Joint leader after 12 rounds, Dommaraju Gukesh has been on quite the roll this tournament, notching up big wins in clutch moments - like grinding out the win against Nijat Abasov in round 11 when an opportunity opened up to go joint lead. He's now tied on 7.5 with much more fancied senior opponents Ian Nepomniachtchi and Hikaru Nakamura atop the table.
Who does he face next?
Round 13 - Alireza Firouzja
On paper, this is a winnable game, with Firouzja second-from-bottom on the points table. But it has to be noted that Gukesh did lose to Firouzja in round 7 here - giving the French GM his first win of the tournament.
This time, though, Gukesh will be playing with white, and will still consider this his best bet for one point.
Round 14 - Hikaru Nakamura
That's because in the last round, he faces fellow leader Nakamura. In round 6, he'd drawn Nakamura with white, and he'll have to be on the top of his game to equal, or better, that result with black pieces.
Is this good for Gukesh?
Yes.
That's because Nakamura faces a massively tough run-in, facing off against both his fellow leaders in the last two rounds. Assuming Nepomniachtchi-Nakamura ends in a draw in round 13, and if Gukesh can win the winnable game against Firouzja, then a draw in this last match would be gold.
Oh, and Nepomniachtchi has an equally tough run-in. He takes on Nakamura and Fabiano Caruana in 13 and 14: Caruana is just 0.5 behind the trio of leaders and will be going all out at the end. Nepomniachtchi had drawn both his earlier matches against the two USA GMs.
This puts Gukesh in a distinctly advantageous position: with a possible total of 9 points versus his fellow leaders' 8.5 each (if it works out as stated above).
R Praggnanandhaa - 5th (6 points)
Praggnanandhaa is 1.5 points behind the leaders and that virtually rules him out of the competition even if a major collapse happens above him.
Who does he face next?
Round 13 - Fabiano Caruana
Praggnanandhaa can, though, still affect the title race materially. That's cos he takes on fourth place Caruana in round 13, and the Indian GM will play with white pieces. A draw or loss here could keep Caruana off the leaders' backs. Their earlier match had ended in a draw.
Round 14 - Nijat Abasov
With Abasov struggling, Praggnanandhaa has the chance to close the tournament out on a high note.
Where does this leave Praggnanandhaa?
In the best-case scenario where he takes two wins, his tally increases to 8. This will only be material if all three of the leaders take only a draw each - but considering the amount of cross-play between them this is simply not possible. (for example, Nakamura plays Nepo and Gukesh - any combination of results there will lead to Pragg being eliminated)
Vidit Gujrathi - 6th (5 points)
Vidit has entertained fans this tournament with his gung-ho result-forcing style, but it's not been enough to trouble the players at the top. He next faces off against the two players below him - Abasov and Firouzja. Even with two wins, his tally of seven will not be enough to impact the title race.
Women's Candidates
A reminder of what the table looks like:
Tan (8)
Lei (7.5)
Goryachkina, Lagno, Humpy (6)
Vaishali (5.5)
Muzychuk, Salimova (4.5)
Koneru Humpy - 3rd (6 points)
Humpy's had a reasonable tournament but she only has an outside chance of forcing her way into the conversation at the top between Tan Zhongyi and Lei Tingjie if she wins both her remaining matches and Tan doesn't take a point, and Lei takes only a draw
Who does she face next?
Round 13 - Anna Muzychuk
With Muzychuk struggling at the bottom of the table, Humpy will feel this is a winnable match, but the two did draw their earlier match in round 7.
Round 14 - Lei Tingjie
A last match against Lei gives Humpy the opportunity to close the gap (only if Lei has either lost or drawn in round 13 against Vaishali) but it's an uphill task. In their previous meeting in round 6, Lei won with black pieces.
What makes it all the more unlikely is the fact that outright leader Tan Zhonyi faces the bottom two players Salimova and Muzychuk in her last two matches. Even a draw against either will put her out of reach of Humpy.
Vaishali R - 6th (5.5 points)
Vaishali, like Vidit, is out of contention. Even two wins in two will give her only 7.5 points, half a point less than the current leader. She also has two tough encounters coming up - against second placed Lei and joint third Lagno.
Her challenge now will be to keep up her winning streak - which has seen her win three in a row at the backend of the tournament.
What happens if there's a tie at the top at the end of round 14?
Since this is a very real possibility, we have to consider the series of tiebreakers that may ensue:
If two players are tied, they will play two rapid chess games.
If more than two are tied, they will play a single round robin rapid chess tournament.
If two players are still tied in the rapid tiebreaker, they will play two blitz chess games
If more than two players are still tied in the rapid tiebreaker, they will play a single round-robin blitz chess tournament.
What's the difference between classic, rapid and blitz?
Classic has a time control of 120 minutes for the first 40 moves, then 30 minutes for the rest of the game (plus 30-second increment per move starting from move 41)
Rapid is a 15-minute game (plus 10 seconds per move)
Blitz is a 3-minute game (plus 2 seconds per move)
The Full Schedule
OPEN CATEGORY
WOMEN'S CATEGORY