Friday, August 18
Adelaide Crows vs. Sydney Swans, Adelaide Oval at 7:50pm (AEST)
Crows: B Luke Brown, Daniel Talia, Jake Lever, HB Jake Kelly, Alex Keath, Rory Laird, C David Mackay, Rory Sloane, Brodie Smith, HF Charlie Cameron, Taylor Walker, Riley Knight, F Tom Lynch, Josh Jenkins, Eddie Betts, FOL Sam Jacobs, Brad Crouch, Matt Crouch, I/C Hugh Greenwood, Rory Atkins, Richard Douglas, Mitch McGovern, EMG Paul Seedsman, Kyle Cheney, Wayne Milera
Swans: B Dane Rampe, Heath Grundy, Nick Smith, HB Zak Jones, Lewis Melican, Jarrad McVeigh, C Jake Lloyd, Josh P. Kennedy, Isaac Heeney, HF George Hewett, Lance Franklin, Gary Rohan, F Dean Towers, Kurt Tippett, Sam Reid, FOL Callum Sinclair, Luke Parker, Dan Hannebery, I/C Will Hayward, Kieren Jack, Callum Mills, Tom Papley, EMG Aliir Aliir, Jordan Dawson, Nic Newman
TAB verdict: The punters are tipping Sydney to cause an upset in what shapes as the match of the season. All the stats suggest that the punters could be the money, with the Swans winning five of their past six against the Crows as well as claiming victory in three of their four matches at Adelaide Oval. With a top four position on the line, expect the Swans to be too good ($2.25).
TAB odds: Adelaide $1.65 v Sydney $2.25
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Saturday, August 19
Western Bulldogs vs. Port Adelaide, Mars Stadium at 1:45pm
Dogs: B Shane Biggs, Zaine Cordy, Dale Morris, HB Robert Murphy, Lewis Young, Matthew Suckling, C Lachie Hunter, Marcus Bontempelli, Bailey Dale, HF Jason Johannisen, Jake Stringer, Liam Picken, F Luke Dahlhaus, Travis Cloke, Tory Dickson FOL Jordan Roughead, Tom Liberatore, Jack Macrae, I/C Toby McLean, Josh Dunkley, Bailey Williams, Caleb Daniel, EMG Mitch Wallis, Fletcher Roberts, Mitch Honeychurch
Port: B Riley Bonner, Tom Clurey, Dan Houston, HB Darcy Byrne-Jones, Tom Jonas, Hamish Hartlett, C Justin Westhoff, Ollie Wines, Jared Polec, HF Sam Gray, Todd Marshall, Robbie Gray, F Aidyn Johnson, Charlie Dixon, Chad Wingard, FOL Paddy Ryder, Brad Ebert, Travis Boak, I/C Jake Neade, Sam Powell-Pepper, Karl Amon, Dougal Howard, EMG Jackson Trengove, Matthew White, Jarman Impey
TAB verdict: The bookies can't split them with $1.90 on offer for both sides with the Power just edging the Dogs in terms of money from punters. With snow predicted in Ballarat's inaugural AFL match, it should be a close match so take the $2.50 for the game to be decided by less than 15 points or less.
TAB odds: Western Bulldogs $1.90 v Port Adelaide $1.90
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Collingwood vs. Geelong, MCG at 2.10pm
Pies: B Brayden Maynard, Lynden Dunn, Matthew Scharenberg, HB Jeremy Howe, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp, C Steele Sidebottom, Taylor Adams, Tim Broomhead, HF Josh Daicos, Darcy Moore, Callum Brown, F Jamie Elliott, Ben Reid, Jarryd Blair, FOL Mason Cox, James Aish, Adam Treloar, I/C Tom Phillips, Josh Thomas, Will Hoskin-Elliott, Josh Smith, EMG Lachlan Keeffe, Kayle Kirby, Jackson Ramsay
Cats: B Tom Stewart, Tom Lonergan, Jake Kolodjashnij, HB Jed Bews, Lachie Henderson, Andrew Mackie, C Zach Tuohy, Patrick Dangerfield, Steven Motlop, HF Jordan Murdoch, Wylie Buzza, Sam Menegola, F Daniel Menzel, Harry Taylor, James Parsons, FOL Zac Smith, Scott Selwood, Mitch Duncan, I/C Cameron Guthrie, Zach Guthrie, Sam Simpson, Jackson Thurlow, EMG Jordan Cunico, Darcy Lang, Brandan Parfitt
TAB verdict: The underdog has won this match in five of the past six encounters, including the last three by Collingwood. The Mapgies have been $4, $5.75 and $2.90 the last three times they have played Geelong and they have won comfortably on all three occasions, by 29, 24 and 48 points. With Geelong still missing key players, look for the trend to continue and a Collingwood victory by 20-39 points ($8).
TAB odds: Collingwood $2.60 v Geelong $1.50
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GWS Giants vs. West Coast Eagles, Spotless Stadium at 4.35pm
Giants: B Nick Haynes, Phil Davis, Nathan Wilson, HB Adam Tomlinson, Aidan Corr, Heath Shaw, C Lachie Whitfield, Callan Ward, Tom Scully, HF Toby Greene, Rory Lobb, Devon Smith, F Jeremy Cameron, Jonathon Patton, Matt de Boer, FOL Shane Mumford, Stephen Coniglio, Jacob Hopper, I/C Zac Williams, Dylan Shiel, Brett Deledio, Josh Kelly, EMG Matthew Kennedy, Harrison Himmelberg, Harry Perryman
Eagles: B Shannon Hurn, Eric Mackenzie, Tom Barrass, HB Brad Sheppard, Jeremy McGovern, Liam Duggan, C Mark Hutchings, Matt Priddis, Andrew Gaff, HF Jack Redden, Jack Darling, Elliot Yeo, F Jamie Cripps, Josh J. Kennedy, Drew Petrie, FOL Nathan Vardy, Sam Mitchell, Luke Shuey, I/C Dom Sheed, Lewis Jetta, Luke Partington, Josh Hill, EMG Tom Lamb, Sharrod Wellingham, Jackson Nelson
TAB verdict: West Coast has the best record as underdog this season, winning three out of four matches. The Giants, however, appear to be finding form at the right stage of the season. Back the Eagles to put up a fight, cover their line and get within 29 points ($1.90).
TAB odds: GWS $1.20 v West Coast $4.60
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Gold Coast Suns vs. Essendon, MetriconStadium at 7.25pm
Suns: B Jarrod Harbrow, Steven May, Trent McKenzie, HB Jesse Joyce, Jack Leslie, Adam Saad, C Pearce Hanley, Aaron Hall, Matt Rosa, HF Brayden Fiorini, Jack Martin, Callum Ah Chee, F Darcy Macpherson, Peter Wright, Ben Ainsworth, FOL Keegan Brooksby, Touk Miller, David Swallow, I/C Jesse Lonergan, Mitch Hallahan, Josh Schoenfeld, Max Spencer, EMG Mackenzie Willis, Michael Rischitelli, Brad Scheer
Dons: B Andrew McGrath, Michael Hartley, James Kelly, HB Brendon Goddard, Patrick Ambrose, Conor McKenna, C Zach Merrett, Craig Bird, Dyson Heppell, HF Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Cale Hooker, Martin Gleeson, F Jayden Laverde, Joe Daniher, James Stewart, FOL Tom Bellchambers, David Zaharakis, Darcy Parish, I/C Mark Baguley, Josh Green, Joshua Begley, David Myers, EMG Ben Howlett, Shaun McKernan, Matt Dea
TAB verdict: The only thing that could sway to towards a Gold Coast victory here is the Bombers' interstate record, in which they have won one of their past 18 matches. TAB customers are discounting that record so far, with double of the money on the Bombers than the Suns. Essendon to win by 1-39 points ($2.30).
TAB odds: Gold Coast $3.55 v Essendon $1.30
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Carlton vs. Hawthorn, Domain Stadium at 7:25pm
Blues: B Tom Williamson, Liam Jones, Lachie Plowman, HB Kade Simpson, Jacob Weitering, Sam Docherty, C Blaine Boekhorst, Marc Murphy, Jarrod Pickett, HF Matthew Wright, Charlie Curnow, Dale Thomas, F Sam Petrevski-Seton, Levi Casboult, Jed Lamb FOL Matthew Kreuzer, Bryce Gibbs, Zac Fisher, I/C Ciaran Byrne, Sam Kerridge, Jack Silvagni, Billie Smedts, EMG Dennis Armfield, Kristian Jaksch, Nick Graham
Hawks: B Shaun Burgoyne, Kaiden Brand, Blake Hardwick, HB Ryan Burton, James Sicily, Jack Gunston, C Isaac Smith, Tom Mitchell, Liam Shiels, HF Ryan Schoenmakers, Tim O'Brien, Ricky Henderson, F Luke Breust, Jarryd Roughead, Jaeger O'Meara, FOL Ben McEvoy, Will Langford, Luke Hodge, I/C Daniel Howe, Taylor Duryea, Paul Puopolo, Billy Hartung, EMG Conor Glass, Teia Miles, Marc Pittonet
TAB verdict: Carlton has led in the last quarter and lost in six games this season. Hawthorn should be too good on Saturday night but if you're looking for value, back Carlton to be leading at each break before losing ($18).
TAB odds: Carlton $3.55 v Hawthorn $1.30
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Sunday, August 13
Melbourne vs. Brisbane, MCG at 1.10pm
Demons: B Michael Hibberd, Oscar McDonald, Neville Jetta, HB Jordan Lewis, Tom McDonald, Jayden Hunt, C Dom Tyson, Nathan Jones, Clayton Oliver, HF Alex Neal-Bullen, Jesse Hogan, Christian Petracca, F Jeff Garlett, Cameron Pedersen, James Harmes, FOL Max Gawn, Bernie Vince, Jake Melksham, I/C Angus Brayshaw, Billy Stretch, Mitch Hannan, Sam Weideman, Ben Kennedy, Josh Wagner, Corey Maynard (Three to be omitted)
Lions: B Daniel McStay, Harris Andrews, Daniel Rich, HB Darcy Gardiner, Josh Walker, Sam Mayes, C Hugh McCluggage, Dayne Zorko, Ryan Bastinac, HF Lewis Taylor, Michael Close, Claye Beams, F Ryan Lester, Eric Hipwood, Jake Barrett, FOL Stefan Martin, Tom Rockliff, Dayne Beams, I/C Ben Keays, Nick Robertson, Sam Skinner, Tom Cutler, Alex Witherden, Rhys Mathieson, Jacob Allison (Three to be omitted)
TAB verdict: There has been support for the improving Lions to put a spanner in the Demons' finals chances. Brisbane has been the best backed team and with that in mind, the 38.5 head start for the Lions at $1.95 looks very attractive.
TAB odds: Melbourne $1.15 v Brisbane $5.50
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St Kilda vs. North Melbourne, Etihad Stadium at 3:20pm
Saints: B Jarryn Geary, Nathan J. Brown, Dylan Roberton, HB Jack Newnes, Jake Carlisle, Jimmy Webster, C Shane Savage, Luke Dunstan, Blake Acres, HF Jack Billings, Nick Riewoldt, Jack Sinclair, F Jade Gresham, Josh Bruce, Tim Membrey, FOL Billy Longer, Sebastian Ross, Jack Steven, I/C Tom Hickey, Jack Steele, Jack Lonie, Sam Gilbert, Koby Stevens, Brandon White, Maverick Weller (Three to be omitted)
Kangaroos: B Sam Durdin, Robbie Tarrant, Daniel Nielson, HB Shaun Atley, Scott D. Thompson, Ryan Clarke, C Declan Mountford, Trent Dumont, Sam Gibson, HF Luke McDonald, Braydon Preuss, Kayne Turner, F Shaun Higgins, Ben Brown, Jy Simpkin, FOL Todd Goldstein, Andrew Swallow, Ben Cunnington, I/C Jed Anderson, Jack Ziebell, Nathan Hrovat, Aaron Mullett, Ben McKay, Taylor Garner, Cameron Zurhaar (Three to be omitted)
TAB verdict: 86% of the money has been for the Saints to win in Nick Riewoldt's last home match. St Kilda has kicked more behinds than goals in 12 matches this season, the most in the competition. Their inaccuracy will ensure a big win isn't possible so expect the Saints to win by 1-39 points ($2.20).
TAB odds: St Kilda $1.40 v North Melbourne $3
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Fremantle vs. Richmond, Domain Stadium at 4.40pm (AEST)
Freo: B Ryan Nyhuis, Joel Hamling, Luke Ryan, HB Ethan Hughes, Michael Johnson, Darcy Tucker, C Lachie Weller, Nat Fyfe, Bradley Hill, HF Hayden Crozier, Matt Taberner, Harley Bennell, F Hayden Ballantyne, Cam McCarthy, Brennan Cox, FOL Sean Darcy, Stephen Hill, David Mundy, I/C Nick Suban, Griffin Logue, Cameron Sutcliffe, Joshua Deluca, Shane Kersten, Danyle Pearce, Tommy Sheridan (Three to be omitted)
Tigers: B Nathan Broad, Alex Rance, Dylan Grimes, HB Brandon Ellis, David Astbury, Nick Vlastuin, C Kamdyn McIntosh, Trent Cotchin, Shaun Grigg, HF Kane Lambert, Shane Edwards, Ivan Soldo, F Dan Butler, Jack Riewoldt, Daniel Rioli FOL Toby Nankervis, Dustin Martin, Dion Prestia, I/C Ben Lennon, Bachar Houli, Jacob Townsend, Corey Ellis, Oleg Markov, Jason Castagna, Jack Graham (Three to be omitted)
TAB verdict: If you are behind in your footy tipping but within striking distance of the leader, the Dockers could be a good roughie to go for this week. Richmond has only defeated a Ross Lyon coached team in three out of 16 matches. Fremantle to get the four points ($3.35).
TAB odds: Fremantle $3.35 v Richmond $1.33