As season 2017 begins to draw to a close, punters are getting a clearer picture of which sides are legitimate finals threats. The ESPN AFL Power Rankings show the top three spots seem fairly settled, but there's an interesting battle looming for fourth.
For the sixth straight week, we've had a different team in fourth place in the rankings, with Sydney Swans, Richmond, Adelaide Crows, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs and Port Adelaide all having occupied the spot in the past month and a half of footy. And that says there's a 'double chance' up for grabs and any side from Port (fourth on the ladder) to West Coast (ninth) are still in with a shot with four sides on nine wins and two sides not far behind on eight.
There were no huge movers either up or down this week: Richmond fell two spots while the Dogs also took another hit after both sides threw up insipid performances at the weekend. It's fair to say the Pies are done for 2017 -- as are the Suns and the Blues -- but the Hawks and Bombers kept their slim hopes alive with a draw and a win respectively.
Speaking of draws, not only have we witnessed two in two weeks -- a rarity in itself -- but both have included Greater Western Sydney Giants, who, prior to Round 15, had never played in a tied match.
1. Greater Western Sydney
Last week: 1 (no change)
Round 16: drew with Hawthorn
Last week it was Geelong's Tom Hawkins who fluffed a chance to bury the Giants; this week it was the siren that prevented Hawthorn's Ryan Burton from doing the same. To think the Giants have managed to secure four points from their past two matches (when they could easily have come away with none) shows that luck does play some part in football. Despite the two draws, the Giants are outright second on the ladder, with best-22 players returning every week. This week's clash with Sydney looms as one of the matches of the round.
Next: Sydney (Spotless Stadium, Saturday 7:25pm local)
2. Geelong
Last week: 2 (no change)
Round 16: defeated Brisbane by 85 points
Travelling interstate two weeks in a row didn't seem to bother the Cats, who came away with six of a possible eight points. Geelong were ruthless in their match against the Lions, winning by 85 points in a season where spots in the top eight will no doubt be decided by percentage. Come September, 85-point beltings could mean the difference between finishing second and third, fourth and fifth -- or playing at home or on the road. Looking ahead, the Cats have some tough games, including this week's doozy against the stubborn Hawks.
Next: Hawthorn (MCG, Saturday 1:45pm local)
3. Adelaide
Last week: 3 (no change)
Round 16: defeated Western Bulldogs by 59 points
We're not sure the Doggies are much chop at the moment, but a 10-goal win to the Crows under Friday night lights is impressive no matter which way you look at it. Adelaide choked their opponents, allowing the Dogs just one goal after halftime -- an impressive stat given most of the attention this year has been on the Crows' forwards. The Crows are an odd case, though, as it seems that only winning big will keep the scepticism away. They managed to do that on Friday, and as a result they remain in first place on the ladder. This week, they play an undermanned Dees in Darwin in what is the perfect opportunity to consolidate their standing.
Next: Melbourne (TIO Stadium, Saturday 7:10pm local)
4. Sydney
Last week: 5 (up 1)
Round 16: defeated Gold Coast by 67 points
Here come the Swans. After being winless from six matches and ranked as low as No. 17 in the Power Rankings, Sydney have amazingly won more games than they've lost in 2017. Their slow start is likely to prevent the Swans from snagging a top-four spot, but they're in top-four form -- hence their ranking this week. This week's match-up is tantalising to say the least, with two of the league's hottest teams going at it in the Sydney derby. A loss would not be disastrous for the Swans, but they are sitting just eighth on the ladder and four points would be handy in their attempt to claim an eighth straight finals berth given there are a handful of teams ready to pounce.
Next: GWS (Spotless Stadium, Saturday 7:25pm local)
5. Melbourne
Last week: 6 (up 1)
Round 16: defeated Carlton by 8 points
Missing their two co-captains and without key players such as Jack Watts, Christian Salem and Dom Tyson, the Dees will no doubt be happy to just bank the four points and move on. Melbourne were in an arm wrestle all day against a Blues side that is far better than its 16th placing on the ladder suggests, and the result could have been totally different had Carlton not had two players missing for the second half. As it stands, the Dees are fifth -- on both the ladder and in the rankings -- but they have a tough ask this week when they play Adelaide in Darwin.
Next: Adelaide (TIO Stadium, Saturday 7:10pm local)
6. Richmond
Last week: 4 (down 2)
Round 16: lost to St Kilda by 67 points
If I were Damien Hardwick, I'd grab the tapes from Saturday night, stick 'em in the bin and then light the bin on fire. Whatever they dished up on Saturday night was something else, and while having a giggle at Richmond's expense is one of Australia's favourite past-times even we know that match was the exception to the rule. The Tigers have a very winnable game this week, when Brisbane come to town, but, as we know from two weeks ago, the Lions don't mind playing at Etihad Stadium.
Next: Brisbane (Etihad Stadium, Saturday 1:10pm local)
7. Port Adelaide
Last week: 7 (no change)
Round 16: defeated West Coast by 32 points
The criticism of Port going into Round 16 was that they were yet to have beaten a top-eight side. And the Eagles had fallen out of the eight by the time they took to the ground to play Port, due to other results, so the Power still (technically) haven't beaten a top-eight team. Having said that, they're stiff not to rise a spot on the back of their victory as a 32-point win over the Eagles at Domain Stadium is no easy feat. It is, however, fair to say the Power are still unproven against flag-worthy opponents; we'll get an idea of their September bona fides when they play the Dees, Saints and Crows in the next month.
Next: North Melbourne (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:40pm local)
8. St Kilda
Last week: 9 (up 1)
Round 16: defeated Richmond by 67 points
To say the Saints had an electrifying start against the Tigers would almost be an understatement. Having kicked 14 goals to Richmond's one by halftime, St Kilda took their foot off the accelerator in the second half to 'cruise' to a 67-point victory. We're unsure if this match said more about the Saints or the Tigers, but what is certain is that the percentage boost will do the Saints' finals hopes no harm whatsoever. With matches against the Swans, Port Adelaide, West Coast and Melbourne in the next five weeks, St Kilda still have their work cut out for them, as they sit just one game ahead of the chasing pack.
Next: Essendon (Etihad Stadium, Saturday 7:50pm local)
9. West Coast Eagles
Last week: 8 (down 1)
Round 16: lost to Port Adelaide by 32 points
Can the 'flat track bully' moniker remain if West Coast can't even win at home? The effort displayed by Adam Simpson's men against Port Adelaide was nothing short of embarrassing -- a sentiment shared by the 15,000 or so fans who decided to leave Domain Stadium early on Sunday afternoon. The loss means the Eagles slip out of the eight and into the chasing pack; with a percentage now under 100, they may find it hard to get back in without a large win or two. This week's match against Freo looks extremely winnable on paper, but the derby always brings out the best of both these teams regardless of ladder positions. This is a danger game.
Next: Fremantle (Domain Stadium, Sunday 2:40pm local)
10. Hawthorn
Last week: 11 (up 1)
Round 16: drew with GWS
If the siren had sounded a second later, the Hawks would have snatched a famous victory on Saturday; but they had to settle for a draw with the flag favourites after Ryan Burton's quick thinking to belt the ball over the goal line came a split-second too late. Remarkably, the Hawks are still a chance to play finals in 2017, and there may be genuine cause for concern for the rest of the competition if they can find a way to beat Geelong this week. Stalwart and three-time premiership captain Luke Hodge has also said he will retire at the end of the year, an announcement which will no doubt fire up the Hawks on Saturday.
Next: Geelong (MCG, Saturday 1:45pm local)
11. Essendon
Last week: 12 (up 1)
Round 16: defeated Collingwood by 37 points
Aren't the Bombers a curious case? They looked like a genuine finals threat less than a month ago, but awful final quarters against the Swans and Lions have almost cost them their season. The finals remain a challenge even with the win over the Pies on Saturday, but Essendon's remaining matches might fill fans with some degree of confidence. Games against the Roos, out-of-form Dogs, Blues, Suns and Dockers are all to come in 2017.
Next: St Kilda (Etihad Stadium, Friday 7:50pm local)
12. Western Bulldogs
Last week: 10 (down 2)
Round 16: lost to Adelaide by 59 points
Behold, the premiership hangover. There's an air of Hawthorn in 2009 about the Dogs -- who are now 11th on the ladder and even lower in the Power Rankings table after they pulled out what coach Luke Beveridge described as "one of the worst losses" in his tenure. Premiership stars look disinterested and the lack of genuine key forward talent is telling, but it's weird considering this was also the case in 2016. The Dogs are now at crisis point and must win this week against the Blues at the 'G, though, as other teams have found out, that's not as easy as it sounds.
Next: Carlton (MCG, Sunday 3:20pm local)
13. Fremantle
Last week: 13 (no change)
Round 16: defeated North Melbourne by 4 points
The Dockers really shouldn't have been troubled by a North Melbourne side ranked 18th in the Power Rankings heading into Round 16, and they were far too good in the early parts against the Roos. Save for some magic from debutant Ryan Nyhuis, however, they could have flown back west empty-handed. As it went, North's Todd Goldstein missed a sitter and it's happy days for the Dockers. Also, Nat Fyfe's form is improving week by week, while the Dockers might have found a long-term Sandi replacement in Sean Darcy, who won the hit-outs 34-32.
Next: West Coast (Domain Stadium, Sunday 2:40pm local)
14. Carlton
Last week: 15 (up 1)
Round 16: lost to Melbourne by 8 points
If, pre-match, you'd told Carlton fans they'd be two players down on the bench before halftime and one of those players would be Patrick Cripps, they mightn't have bothered turning up. If you'd asked a Carlton fan to take a stab at how many points their team would lose by, we guarantee none would have said eight (it would have been just two if not for Jordan Lewis' after-the-siren job). Ultimately, the Blues almost stole a win from a team intent on making the top four, with the kids all playing a major role. Charlie Curnow could be anything, while David Cuningham and Harrison Macreadie are two impressive youngsters flying under the radar.
Next: Western Bulldogs (MCG, Sunday 3:20pm local)
15. Gold Coast Suns
Last week: 14 (down 1)
Round 16: lost to Sydney by 67 points
If we earlier deemed Essendon to be a 'curious case', then Gold Coast are just as perplexing. Leading Sydney at quartertime, the Suns did not kick a goal in the second or third quarters in eventually going down by 67 points. The club seems to be in limbo, playing decent footy one week and serving up tripe the next. In a positive, Jarryd Lyons is one of the feel-good stories from the 2016 trade period -- he is fast becoming an important cog for the Suns -- while they play Pies at home this week in what is very much a winnable game. They need to hit the draft hard again this offseason.
Next: Collingwood (Metricon Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm local)
16. Collingwood
Last week: 16 (no change)
Round 16: lost to Essendon by 37 points
A 37-point loss to Essendon is surely the final nail in Collingwood's 2017 coffin. There wasn't much to take out of the Pies' performance, except that some of skill errors from senior players were truly awful. After coach Nathan Buckley boldly declared he would have to make finals to save his job, one can only expect the external noise and pressure to increase from here on in -- an unwanted distraction for players and fans alike. The club (much like Gold Coast above) is in limbo, and judging by the reaction on social media, it's tearing it apart from the inside.
Next: Gold Coast (Metricon Stadium, Saturday 4:35pm local)
17. North Melbourne
Last week: 18 (up 1)
Round 16: lost to Fremantle by 4 points
North Melbourne's slow start on Sunday potentially cost them the four points against Freo. It could also be said that Todd Goldstein missing from 20 metres out directly in front played some part, but, ultimately, it's a team game and the Roos were asleep at the wheel early. An early draft pick looks assured for North this year, and the best thing coach Brad Scott can do is play the kids in the meantime. On a separate note, is Ben Brown a sneaky chance for the Coleman? If not this year, perhaps next? He's five goals off the pace playing for the 17th-placed side.
Next: Port Adelaide (Adelaide Oval, Saturday 1:40pm local)
18. Brisbane
Last week: 17 (down 1)
Round 15: lost to Geelong by 85 points
After an encouraging month of footy, it was disappointing to see Brisbane throw up such a poor performance at home against the Cats (who were travelling for the second straight week). The Lions managed to hang on for just over a quarter of footy before the floodgates opened, but, having said that, there were again positive signs. Dayne Zorko is a star (36 touches and four majors), while Eric Hipwood made the most of limited opportunities with his two goals. The Lions, kind of like the Blues, are building a list of good young talent but it might just be some time before this tree bears fruit.
Next: Richmond (Etihad Stadium, Sunday 1:10pm local)