San Diego Handicap
Saturday, July 19, Del Mar
The Low-Down: The San Diego Handicap will give us a good look at some of the major players for this years Pacific Classic. SURF CAT heads a field of 10 this year. SURF CAT is looking to poke his head above the $1 million earnings mark. He currently stands at $955,420. SURF CAT gets a new rider with the departure of Alex Solis and the new passenger in David Flores. WELL ARMED returns to the States after a third-place finish in the Dubai World Cup, where he set the pace and then watched Curlin run away and hide. 'ARMED' does his running on the lead and he will make the field come and catch him. MOSTACOLLI MORT and REBELLION are both entering this race off impressive victories. 'MOSTACOLLI' turned in his career-best performance when dusting off a field of optional claimers that included fellow competitor TALL TEXAN. REBELLION took down the Ack Ack on June 7 by taking advantage of a friendly pace setup. Though REBELLION is not a proven horse around two turns, trainer Graham Motion has decided to take a shot. MR NAPPER TANDY, MAGNUM, GLOBAL HUNTER and RACKETEER are all looking to redeem themselves following below-par efforts. And lastly, we have YOU GOT ME ROCKING, a Churchill Downs export now in the hands of Mike Mitchell. On paper, this gray appears to have little chance. But paper form can be very misleading at times -- more on that below.
Our Eyes: Let's take it up from inside to outside. MOSTACOLLI MORT is in the best form of his career. He has never taken on this kind of competition, but his win last time suggests this is the moment for Canani to see how much class he has. His last two drills were both on the breezy side. SURF CAT got a feel for the Del Mar Polytrack on Tuesday with an early a.m. move. He looked fine and was not set down by any means. In his last race, the Californian, he looked recently retired HEATSEEKER in the eye for a few furlongs before being unable to match that runner late. My guess is that trainer Bruce Headley was not fond of where Solis positioned SURF CAT in the Californian, because Solis is removed in favor of David Flores. I expect to see SURF CAT back in a more familiar and comfortable stalking position. This guy wants a target. The connections for WELL ARMED get to find out how much the trip to Dubai took out of their big son of Tiznow. You never know until the horse runs that next race. If this guy is feeling good, he is likely to be very tough to catch, because it looks like he'll be out rolling on the lead by himself. He is a major player. TALL TEXAN looked well in his lone drill over the Poly on Monday. He worked in company with a nice grass horse called Tiz West. He has to make up significant ground on MOSTACOLLI MORT, whom he was soundly beaten by in his last start. To be fair, he does figure to improve off that last race because it was his first career attempt around two turns. YOU GOT ME ROCKING has sported the most impressive work tab of the group I have watched train. His final drill at Hollywood Park was fantastic. He hit the wire in 1:00.60 for five panels and continued to stride out strongly -- 1:12.60, 1:25.80 -- getting the mile in 1:38.20. This is the Mitchell tip-off. He lets his horses run out, and when they do it this strongly, it's a big "green light" that the horse is doing great. I'm sure that is why the connections have decided to take a shot in here.
The Bottom Line: The two logical and deserving favorites are SURF CAT and WELL ARMED. WELL ARMED gets the "horse-to-beat" tag because he appears to be the lone speed. As I commented earlier, there is always that question of how much the Dubai trip took out of him. SURF CAT should appreciate getting back to his stalking style, and I don't think Flores will have any difficulties in his first time aboard the horse. From the value picture, I have to take a long look at the Mitchell gray, YOU GOT ME ROCKING. On paper, he is overmatched. Ignoring the paper and acting on what I have seen in the morning hours, I have to think he has a big chance. With that in mind, let's attack the race like this: win/place wager on YOU GOT ME ROCKING. Key him in the first and second slots in the exacta/trifecta with MOSTACOLLI MORT, SURF CAT and WELL ARMED.
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