Baseball's best playoff race kicked into high gear in July -- and it all started with "the incident."
On July 19, the Seattle Mariners were 47-48 and in fourth place in the American League West -- 10 games behind the division-leading Texas Rangers. According to FanGraphs, their odds of winning the division stood at 2.5%.
The Mariners had lost 6-3 at home to the Minnesota Twins that night -- a game it looked like they'd win. The Twins scored the go-ahead run in the eighth inning on a passed ball with two outs and then added two more on a home run in the top of the ninth. In the bottom of that inning, Jarred Kelenic struck out looking with two runners on base after a nine-pitch at-bat against Jhoan Duran that included fouling off fastballs of 103 and 104 mph. He returned to the dugout, kicked the Gatorade cooler in frustration and broke his left foot.
Kelenic met with reporters the next day in the Mariners' dugout, his eyes red, pausing to wipe away the tears streaming down his face -- tears that appeared to symbolize a Mariners season that began with big dreams but was starting to slip away.
It feels like an unlikely demarcation event and no doubt it's coincidental, but the Mariners took off after that, going 29-9 since. George Kirby kicked it off later that day by pitching seven scoreless innings in a 5-0 win over the Twins. Seattle had two separate eight-game winning streaks in August as Julio Rodriguez flipped the ignition key and turned on his booster rockets for a historic five four-hit games in August. A friend now sends me regular texts with the Mariners' updated win-loss record since "the incident," as they've climbed over the Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays in the wild-card race and into the division race.
On Sunday, the Mariners beat the Kansas City Royals while the Cleveland Guardians beat the Rangers in 13 innings, culminating an improbable 10-game stretch in which the Mariners went 9-1 while the Rangers went 1-9. The Mariners, incredibly, moved into sole possession of first place in the division, the latest date they've been in first since 2001.
As we kick off the final month of the regular season, it's no surprise that we're ranking the AL West race as the most exciting playoff race to watch in September, a three-team battle between the Mariners, Rangers and Houston Astros, with the Mariners hoping to join a very short list of teams that overcame a 10-game deficit in the second half to win a division title. Meanwhile, the National League wild-card race is a multiteam mêlée, the AL East could see two teams win 100 games, and the AL wild-card race has the Blue Jays breathing down the necks of the AL West teams. There will be plenty of out-of-town scoreboard watching in September.
Let's rank the must-see factors for all eight playoff races.