Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks have a chance to eliminate the No. 1-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night in Dallas. It has been an epic series, with close games and back-and-forth action as neither team has been able to hold momentum for long.
Here are the best bets I'm looking at for this game.
Luka Doncic UNDER 47.5 points, rebounds, and assists. Even though he's coming off a huge game with 31 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists, Doncic has gone under this line in four out of five games in this series. He's dealing with a myriad of injuries, but that's not going to stop him. Doncic has done an excellent job this series of leveraging his court vision to consistently get his teammates involved. That's why the Mavericks are in a position to win this series, and I expect Dallas' supporting cast to continue stepping up in a big way.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 45.5 points, rebounds, and assists. The Thunder are on the brink of elimination, and while the Mavericks' supporting cast has stepped up, the opposite has happened for Oklahoma City. Gilgeous-Alexander's teammates, such as Jalen Williams and Josh Giddey, have struggled under the bright lights. As a result, SGA has had to take on an even bigger role. He has cleared this line in four out of five games in this series. With a win-or-go-home game on the line, expect SGA to play major minutes and rack up stats.
Kyrie Irving OVER 19.5 points. Before this series, many -- including myself -- expected that the Mavericks would need both Doncic and Irving to have monster performances to defeat the Thunder. Surprisingly, that hasn't been the case, with Irving averaging only 14.4 points per game. He has only cleared this line in two of the five games in this series. However, for the Mavericks to win this game, they'll need to be firing on all cylinders. I expect Irving to rise to the occasion offensively.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Dallas MavericksWest Semifinals - Game 6
8 p.m. American Airlines Center, Dallas
Records (Against the Spread)
Thunder: 57-25 (46-35-1)
Mavericks: 50-32 (49-33-0)
Line: Mavericks (-3.5) Total: 208.5
Money Line: Thunder (+150), Mavericks (-180)
BPI Projection: Mavericks by 2.3, straight up 58%, 212.6 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Olivier Sarr, (OUT - Achilles)
Mavericks: Luka Doncic, (GTD - Knee); Olivier-Maxence Prosper, (OUT - Ankle); Maxi Kleber, (OUT - Shoulder); Greg Brown III, (OUT - Personal)