Each week of the 2024 AFL season, ESPN.com.au's Jake Michaels looks at six talking points.
This week's Six Points features a bold claim about Charlie Curnow, criticism of a veteran coach, why the Swans are going to be tough to stop, and the ruck who deserves far more credit than he receives.
1. Charlie Curnow's best already makes him a top five key forward since 2000
The hesitation to give Carlton spearhead Charlie Curnow the credit he rightly deserves is truly baffling to me. He might only be 27 years of age, but Curnow has already established himself as a generational player, and, in terms of his peak, is one of the five best key forwards of the last quarter century.
Now let me clarify something. I'm not talking total career, rather the output at the peak of one's powers. Whose best is the best?
Once again, Curnow's name sits atop the Coleman Medal leaderboard, having kicked 27 goals from nine games. Few would back against him running away with the award for what would be the third straight season. For context, just six players in league history have won back-to-back-to-back Coleman Medals. Lance Franklin never did it. Tony Lockett never did it. Jason Dunstall never did it. Peter Hudson never did it.
Since the start of 2022, Curnow has kicked 172 goals. Jeremy Cameron has the next most in that time, 34 goals behind. In that period, Curnow has the second-most score involvements in the league, easily the most contested marks inside forward 50, and has left little doubt in anyone's mind as to who the current best key forward in the competition is.
I'm happy to call the last two-and-a-bit years Curnow's apex, even though he's highly likely to continue improving. So using that as the benchmark, the only key forwards that have 100%, no doubt hit a higher peak than Curnow since 2000 are Franklin, Brendan Fevola, and Matthew Lloyd. That's it. Curnow vs. anyone else is at least an argument, which means he's already in an incredibly stacked group vying for that fourth spot. I'm tipping even his greatest skeptics will concede defeat if he wins that third Coleman Medal later this year.
So who else is in the mix? Tom Hawkins and Jack Riewoldt are lauded for their longevity and durability, not so much their peaks. Matthew Pavlich, Nick Riewoldt, and even Taylor Walker were, and are, all great goalkickers, but none of them ever managed an 80-goal season. Josh Kennedy is someone who did -- twice -- but was his best better than what we've seen from Curnow? Maybe, but it's certainly not definitive. Some will argue the versatile Cameron has enjoyed a better peak, but that peak might have also been over the last two or so years, and, as mentioned above, Curnow has him well and truly covered.
Now the only reservation I have with Curnow is that he needs to perform in the big spots, particularly finals. Last year's effort was underwhelming, but it's still such a small sample size that it would be a little unfair to penalise him. If he continues to struggle in the pressure moments against the best sides, that will certainly impact where he ranks in comparison to his modern day contemporaries, but if he rises to the challenge, we need to be prepared for him to continue overtaking these icons.
2. Chris Scott's comments make him look like a sore loser
Chris Scott is entitled to his opinion. In fact, I think we should be encouraging all coaches -- and players, for that matter -- to speak openly and candidly about all kinds of issues in the sport.
But timing is everything in life and Scott's ultra critical shot at the umpires, and umpiring in general, following Geelong's six-point loss to Port Adelaide last Friday night just didn't sit right with me. All it did was make him appear to be whinging after a tough loss.
Worth a watch: Chris Scott goes in-depth talking about umpiring, rules, interpretations, and everything in between.
— 7AFL (@7AFL) May 10, 2024
"Golden rule for a coach who's lost the game: Do not talk about the umpires. I've spent about five minutes on it!" 😅 pic.twitter.com/g8MdcUCqId
If Scott really does have any issue with the state of umpiring, why not raise it after Round 1 or 2 ... or 3 or 4? The Cats won all of those games, of course, but coaches still undertake post-game press conferences after wins and there was ample opportunity for Scott to raise his concerns.
Any criticism of umpiring -- be it from fans, coaches, or players -- is taken with a grain of salt after a loss. It would have been far more impactful if he had delivered that five-minute rant after a win. With that said, the AFL's new umpires' boss, Stephen McBurney, met with Scott in Geelong on Monday afternoon to discuss those concerns in person. Make of that what you will.
There's a very high chance Scott will have a role at AFL House when his coaching career is over, let's hope his timing and messaging improves before then.
3. Sydney is clearly the team to beat in 2024
The season is young, granted, but the premiership is already looking like Sydney's to lose. The Swans topped my May AFL tiers and looked impressive once again this past weekend, crushing Fremantle by 48 points at Optus Stadium.
So why should the rest of the competition be terrified of John Longmire's squad?
Well, the 8-1 Swans are the best attacking and defensive team in the competition. That's not hyperbole. Through Round 9, they rank first for points scored (101 per game) and first for points conceded (67 per game). Not a bad place to be.
Sydney is also nailing all five of Champion Data's main premierships standards, the categories in which the past 10 premiers have all finished the season ranked in the top six. They are: points against, points against from turnover, opposition points scored from the forward half, ball movement from defensive 50 to forward 50, and inside 50 differential.
But the most impressive part of Sydney's campaign to date is that they've achieved all of this success despite not being close to full strength. Notably, both club captain Callum Mills and veteran Luke Parker are yet to lace them up this season. They're only going to improve and that should frighten the rest of the league.
4. A draft lottery is still not the answer for the AFL
It's been almost a year to the day since I penned my thoughts on whether the AFL should adopt an NBA-style draft lottery. As the discussion once again ramps up, in the wake of the most recent NBA Draft, I'm doubling down on that take. Let's keep it out of our game!
For those who are unfamiliar with the concept, draft lotteries have been used in various United States-based sports leagues in an effort to discourage tanking. Instead of the team with the worst record securing the first pick of a draft, a percentage of the teams with the worst records go into a Keno-style lottery, each with varying degrees of chance to land that top pick.
In theory, it sounds great. But in practice, those desperately needing draft assistance can often miss out. In the NBA, if you're the worst team in the league, there's an 86% chance you won't get the No. 1 pick. The math will also tell you you're a 52% chance to not get a top five selection. On the flip side, a team that was battling for the playoffs until the final day of the regular season could end up with pick No. 1.
And that's exactly what happened this year, with Atlanta Hawks snaring the top pick, despite having just a 3% chance. Meanwhile, the team with the worst record in the league, Detroit Pistons, missed out on a top five pick. Can you imagine the outrage if the Cats scored the No. 1 pick last year and were able to draft Harley Reid, while the Eagles had to settle for pick No. 6!?
Following the Atlanta Hawks scoring the number one pick in the NBA draft lottery, the ESPN Footy Podcast discuss whether something similar should be adopted in the AFL.
Given there's 12 fewer teams in the AFL, if such a concept was introduced it would potentially only apply to the bottom four or six teams, rather than the 14 the NBA runs with.
The problem I can potentially see is the exact one the AFL would be trying to avoid. By adopting this method in an effort to reduce tanking, you may find you invite more of it. A case study would be a team sitting in 15th position heading into the final fortnight. If it can increase its chances of securing the top pick by 5-10% by finishing a rung or two lower on the ladder, why would they try and win?
It's a giant 'steer clear' from me.
5. Can we stop only laying flowers at the feet of Max Gawn and acknowledge Tristan Xerri!?
If Tristan Xerri played for a side sitting in the top eight, there'd be dozens in footy media arguing he deserves to be included in the early All-Australian discussions.
Instead, the North Melbourne ruck remains rather anonymous. Any idea what number he wears? Exactly. Anyway, hopefully I can change your perception of him and convince you he's having the most underrated and unappreciated season of any player in the league.
Through nine games, Xerri ranks third among rucks for Champion Data's Rating Points, first for tackles, equal-second for clearances, third for contested possessions, fourth for hitouts, and ninth for disposals.
FACT: Five times this season Xerri has led his team in contested possessions. Easily the most among rucks.
I'm not saying Xerri has been better than Gawn to start the year -- he's not -- but the gulf between the two is nowhere near what many would believe or fanfare would suggest. To that end, if the two players switched sides this weekend, I wouldn't expect to see much difference in terms of team success, or lack thereof.
So, let's see how the two compare in some key categories.
6. The AFL should have at least considered postponing Fremantle's game against Sydney
It would have been a nightmare for the broadcaster, and a downer for those with tickets, but last Friday night's game between Fremantle and Sydney at Optus Stadium in Perth should have been postponed until later in the year. If not that, the idea should have at least been considered.
Earlier in the day, tragic news broke that former Docker Cam McCarthy had been found dead. It felt like a total oversight from the AFL to not even inquire about the possibility of either delaying or cancelling the game, as Fremantle coach Justin Longmuir mentioned in his press conference.
When Crows coach Phil Walsh was tragically killed in 2015, the league opted to cancel the upcoming game between Adelaide and Geelong. Granted, the circumstances weren't totally comparable, given Walsh was still with the team, but having to play just hours after learning of such tragedy is a horrible position for players to be put in. You really feel the AFL could have done more here, but it is a dangerous precedent.