Women's March Madness 2024: Predicting every Sweet 16 game

Sixteen teams advanced to the regional semifinals in Albany and Portland. And the Sweet 16 is packed with potential.

All four No. 1 seeds reached the round of 16. Defending champion LSU is back, as is No. 1 overall seed South Carolina, which is 34-0 and chasing a perfect season.

Individual star power abounds as well. Caitlin Clark, who broke the NCAA Division I record for most points in a single season in the second round, and Iowa remain in the hunt to book a return trip to the national semifinals. JuJu Watkins, the front-runner for national freshman of the year, has led USC to its first Sweet 16 since 1994.

The Trojans are one of five Pac-12 teams in the Sweet 16 as the conference continues its push to go out on a high note in its last March Madness before the Pac-12 as we know it ceases to exist.

And Duke, at No. 7 the lowest seed left, is hoping to continue its run but will have to get past UConn and Paige Bueckers, who were upset in this round a year ago.

Which teams will make the Elite Eight? ESPN's Charlie Creme, Alexa Philippou and Michael Voepel preview every regional semifinal and join Andrea Adelson in predicting who advances.

No. 3 seed LSU Tigers vs. No. 2 seed UCLA Bruins

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET, ABC (Region 2 in Albany)

Why LSU will win: Part of the Tigers' strength this season is proved by how closely they played SEC rival and No. 1 overall seed South Carolina. The Tigers lost the regular-season matchup with the Gamecocks 76-70 on Jan. 25, and the SEC tournament final 79-72 on March 10.

The Tigers didn't have a particularly convincing NCAA tournament first-round win over Rice (70-60). And observers voiced concern about the second round's free throw shooting disparity with Middle Tennessee: The Tigers were 26-of-37 from the line, while the Blue Raiders were 6-of-9.

But the bottom line is that LSU has the rebounding ability, led by Angel Reese, to win the board battle in most games. The Tigers also average almost 10 points per game more than the Bruins. So as long as LSU is able to run its offense relatively well, it might be tough for UCLA to decisively win any major aspect of the game.

Why UCLA will win: The Bruins lost to rival USC in the Pac-12 tournament semifinals, and then got a scare from Creighton in the second round of the NCAA tournament. Now that they are in the Sweet 16, we might see the best of UCLA. The Bruins lost here in Albany in the regional semifinal five years ago; that was to a UConn team not that far from its home. Last season, UCLA also lost in the Sweet 16 on the East Coast: to South Carolina in Greenville, South Carolina.

This season's Bruins spent a lot of time at No. 2 in the Associated Press poll and have all the bases covered with talent. UCLA has six players averaging between 14.9 and 8.9 points. All but one of them -- center Lauren Betts -- have made at least 20 3-pointers this season. It's fair to say that UCLA is the best program that hasn't made the women's Final Four in the NCAA era. A win over the defending champion Tigers won't get it there but would be a big step.

What's the X factor: It could be free throws. The Tigers lead Division I in free throws made (709) and attempted (950). Compare that to UCLA, which is 421-of-563 from the line for the season. -- Voepel

Which team will advance?

Adelson: UCLA 77, LSU 76
Creme: UCLA 72, LSU 71
Pelton: LSU 80, UCLA 73
Philippou: UCLA 75, LSU, 72
Voepel: LSU 81, UCLA 77

No. 5 seed Colorado Buffaloes vs. No. 1 seed Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC (Region 2 in Albany)

Why Iowa will win: The Hawkeyes had to be patient in letting West Virginia's fouls catch up with it in Monday's second-round win. The Mountaineers' defensive strategy was to try to harass Iowa into enough turnovers to take control of the game, but the Hawkeyes didn't let it happen. Still, the game went down to the wire, so Colorado might try some of the same tactics.

That said, Iowa still has a lot of offensive threats even beyond superstar Caitlin Clark, who leads Division I in scoring, assists and 3-pointers. Kate Martin, Gabbie Marshall and Sydney Affolter can all hit big 3-point shots. Hannah Stuelke was quiet during the early-round games -- she missed most of Iowa's NCAA opener with migraine issues -- but this game could be huge for her. As for Clark, the Sweet 16 and beyond last season was when she really put her game into another gear. If she can do the same this year, the Hawkeyes can advance to the Elite Eight.

Why Colorado will win: The Buffaloes' early-round victories were against Drake, which relies on good 3-point shooting, and Kansas State, which isn't as high scoring and bases its offense around a center. Colorado handled both those teams well, beating the Bulldogs by 14 and the Wildcats by 13. Iowa is Division I's most potent offense, but the Buffs have proved they can slow down good teams.

If Colorado -- which averages 75.4 PPG to Iowa's 92.0 PPG -- can set the tone defensively, that tilts the game in the Buffs' favor. Like West Virginia, Colorado has a super-quick guard in Jaylyn Sherrod. Unlike the Mountaineers, the Buffs have more skilled interior players, such as Quay Miller and Aaronette Vonleh. The Hawkeyes beat the Buffs 87-77 last season in the Sweet 16, but Colorado could turn the tables this time.

What's the X factor: Iowa's 3-point shooting. The Hawkeyes average a Division I-best 11.1 3-pointers per game. And when they start raining 3s, they can go on spurts that change the whole dynamic of the game. -- Voepel

Which team will advance?

Adelson: Iowa 75, Colorado 70
Creme: Iowa 78, Colorado 72
Pelton: Iowa 90, Colorado 82
Philippou: Iowa 82, Colorado 74
Voepel: Iowa 84, Colorado 79

No. 5 seed Baylor Bears vs. No. 1 seed USC Trojans

Saturday, 5:30 p.m. ET, ESPN (Region 3 in Portland)

Why USC will win: Having lost just one game across February and March, the Trojans have been playing their best basketball at the right time. Freshman phenom JuJu Watkins is doing her thing and boasts the third-most points of all time by a freshman with 861. But others around her have stepped up too -- particularly McKenzie Forbes on the offensive end, who just strung together three consecutive 20-plus-point games for the first time in her career. When those two are hitting shots and the rest of the Trojans -- whether Kayla Padilla, Kaitlyn Davis, Clarice Akunwafo or someone else -- excel in their roles, Lindsay Gottlieb's squad is tough to beat.