<
>

W2W4 at French Open: No reason to think Rafael Nadal or Maria Sharapova will struggle, right?

The Sunday start embraced in recent years by the French Open is an awkward strategy at best. Deep down, even the tournament promoters seem to understand that whatever the promotional or marketing advantages of the ploy, the departure from the traditional Monday start is anathema to the top players.

As a result, the tournament starts tepidly, without the participation of the defending champions or even their top rivals. Who wants to lose a Novak Djokovic, Garbine Muguruza or Alexander Zverev before the "real" tournament has even started?

But mercifully, Monday is upon us, and the matchups are solid. Here are the ones we'll be most closely watching:

No. 1 Rafael Nadal vs. Simone Bolelli (Nadal leads 5-0)

The fitting for the King of Clay's new French Open crown (which would be his 11th) begins in earnest against a 32-year-old who hasn't won a set (or even forced a tiebreaker) against Nadal since the very first one they played, way back on the fast indoor surface in Rotterdam in 2009. But this is a compelling matchup because of the implicit contrast in styles.

Bolelli is a smooth, free-swinging righty with a one-handed backhand and plenty of the flair and creativity often associated with Italian players. He's not as radical a stylist as his countryman Fabio Fognini, who has enjoyed significant success against Nadal, but Bolelli is not your standard issue baseliner, either. The tennis heroes of his youth were Stefan Edberg and Patrick Rafter, so you know he isn't afraid to press the attack. Bolelli has a natural shotmaker's willingness to roll the dice, which very few players have.

It's absurd to expect Nadal to experience opening-day jitters when he has won 10 titles at Roland Garros, but players who can depart from the clay script (which is to grind and grind some more) make him a little edgy. Bolelli's ranking may be low, but it's mainly because he's just recovering from major knee surgery and rehab. He'll be fresh.

Prediction: Nadal's consistency will allow him to pull away comfortably.

No. 29 Maria Sharapova vs. Richel Hogenkamp (Sharapova leads 1-0)

This looms as a significant tournament for two-time French Open champion Sharapova. She has a soft start against a qualifier, but the pressure will be on from the first ball hit because Sharapova has struggled with consistency. She hasn't won a significant title since her return from a 15-month doping suspension. As former French Open champion Mary Pierce told ESPN recently, "You know Maria just doesn't seem the same. There's just something missing and you can't really put a finger on what it is."

Sharapova demolished Hogenkamp 6-3, 6-1 the only other time they played, but that was on Wimbledon grass. Hogenkamp, a 26-year-old Dutch player, is most at home on clay. She has competed mostly on the ITF circuit (her career-high WTA ranking was 94 in August 2017) and in other sub-tour events, but her record at this time last year is noteworthy: Starting with the Tunis $60,000 clay event, she went 14-1, a streak that included a win at Saint Gaudens on clay and four wins starting from qualifying at Roland Garros -- including a first-round upset of two-time French Open semifinalist Jelena Jankovic.

The French Open is where Sharapova has enjoyed her greatest success, but at 31, and with a history of injuries, time is beginning to run short. Her recent results suggest she may be finding her game in the nick of time. She bounced back from a disappointing loss to Kiki Bertens in the quarterfinals of Madrid with a solid run in Rome that ended with a loss in the semis to Simona Halep, the woman Sharapova defeated for the title at Roland Garros in 2014.

Prediction: Hogenkamp makes a match of it, but Sharapova wins in three.

No. 9 John Isner vs. Noah Rubin (first meeting)

Rubin, a 22-year-old from Long Island, New York, was elated to earn a wild card into the main draw of the French Open. But the first-round pairings left a slightly bittersweet taste in his mouth, and not because the 6-foot-10 Isner is more than a foot taller. It's more that nobody likes to play a fellow countryman in the first round of a major, especially not one who's seeded -- and part of a U.S. fleet that routinely has trouble making a collective dent in the French Open draw.

Isner has been the most successful American player at the French Open in recent years. He's hit the fourth-round wall twice, losing to Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych on those occasions. Isner is 33 years old now, recently married and still flush with the satisfaction he felt when he finally won a Masters 1000 title in April in Miami. He'll be swinging freely, trying to make the most of that atomic serve as well as the precious extra time the slow, high-bounce clay allows for his return and groundstrokes.

Rubin, just 5-foot-9, is extremely quick and capable of great focus. He's armed with outstanding counterpunching ability. He's worked himself into clay-court shape and has proudly adopted the natural-born grinder's frame of mind. The problem for Rubin is that his opponent just won't go there. Isner will make sure points end quickly -- one way or the other, with an eye to maneuvering Rubin into tiebreakers.

Prediction: Rubin will hold his own, but how do you deal with that serve if you never saw it before? Isner in four.

Upset special

Look for Laura Siegemund to surprise No. 15 CoCo Vandeweghe. The 30-year-old German is in comeback mode (knee) after missing seven months last year but has always been a giant-killer. She is 9-7 against top-10 players in her career.