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The desert at Indian Wells has seemed strangely deserted this past week without a full complement of ATP stars. Once the happy hunting grounds for the vaunted Big Four and honorary associate Stan Wawrinka, Indian Wells -- often described as the game's "fifth Grand Slam" -- is conspicuously lacking its customary star power. "There's a different vibe when all those guys are not around," Federer confessed during a news conference earlier this week. When asked if he missed his compatriots -- or felt delighted that he wouldn't have to face any of them, he replied, "A little bit of both." Who can blame him? Federer, now ranked No. 1, may be sentimental, but he's not crazy. A jolly fellow whose only guilty pleasure is winning titles at an age when many of his peers are contemplating second-career opportunities, the absence of four heroes represents opportunity writ large. That MIA quartet of Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Andy Murray and Wawrinka has accumulated a grand total of 34 major titles thus far, basically scooping anything Federer left unclaimed. But there's more to this "vibe" than the afflictions that have kept Federer's main rivals sidelined, or rendered them ineffective (Nadal: bad leg; Djokovic: elbow surgery; Murray: hip surgery; Wawrinka, knee surgery). The men's status quo is beginning to resemble a house of cards: Pull Federer out and the entire structure just might collapse. The Swiss icon's sheer brilliance has masked a growing sense that the ATP is either on the verge of parity, with nobody capable of stepping up to be the new sheriff in town, or that the long-predicted transition to a fresh new crop of young stars is in full swing. "I have the feeling that change is starting to happen," Tennis Channel analyst Leif Shiras told me. "Guys who used to be outside the top tier are moving up and thinking, 'I like this, it's wide open, time to make hay while the sun is shining.' " Shiras was referring to players like Kevin Anderson, David Goffin, Pablo Carreno Busta and other veterans. But the under-21 players loosely traveling under the #NextGenATP banner are proving allergic to the hay their more seasoned peers are making. "The competitive friction is good for the up-and-comers," Shiras added. "It gives them a realistic sense of what it takes to get to those next levels." High seeds of all ages have suffered a rough fate at Indian Wells. Number 2 Marin Cilic (a finalist in two of the last three majors) was knocked out by clever German veteran, Philipp Kohlschreiber, while No 3 Grigor Dimitrov fell in the second round (he had a first-round bye) to slugging Fernando Verdasco. Alexander Zverev and Dominic Thiem (seeded 4 and 5 respectively), are among the select group of younger players who appear on the cusp of taking over at the top. But they also stumbled out, while Nick Kyrgios, 22, withdrew with yet another injury, this time a bad elbow. Thus, Federer's dominance may be the only thing keeping the ATP Tour from becoming a free-for-all, much like the WTA Tour was after Serena took a break. "I don't understand how Federer does it," Jimmy Arias, once a top five player and now a coach and analyst, told me. "He's playing the best tennis of his life at the age of 36. But after that, it's really up for grabs. I don't like the way the other big guys have been rushed out of the game. I'd like to see the young guys beat them on the court or else they won't get full credit when they do take over." At the moment, though, the young guys have their hands full trying to out-compete the Top 20-grade players who, Arias noted, are aware that for the first time in a long time at least one spot in any big final is up for grabs. The other spot seems to be permanently reserved for you know who.
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