Winning Bledisloe Cup matches requires risk and desperation. There's a bit of both in the flawed line-up Australia has selected for the opening trans-Tasman Test.
After watching endless Super Rugby matches followed by an unconvincing June international series against Ireland, one would assume that picking the team for the opening Bledisloe Cup match would be a breeze.
Not so. Injuries in key spots has led to uncertainty, with players appearing out of position, some selected when they may not exactly be ready, and the overall feel of an undercooked product.
The biggest risk in this team is the selection of Reece Hodge at No 13. That jersey would have been taken by Tevita Kuridrani if not sidelined or Samu Kerevi, even if he did lose his way against Ireland. But as both as confined to the grandstand, Wallabies coach Michael Cheika is prepared to chance Hodge in one of the most demanding positions even though his experience at No.13 is limited.
Hodge has the speed and attacking capabilities to acquit himself to outside centre. But has he the defensive nous to cope with a position where it often appears that the opposition is coming at you from every direction, and you have to make the right decision, otherwise you end up looking like a complete dill?
Many resourceful players over the years have been tried in Wallabies No.13 jerseys, and quite a few have either failed or floundered, struggling to cope with the responsibilities of the position. Hodge is more accustomed to other attacking areas of the field.
It's okay to try someone at No 13 for a lesser international, but against the All Blacks- the masters of counter attack and intuitive play revolving around an ability to seize on any opposition frailty- good luck. This is a real sink or swim mission, especially as his fellow centre Kurtley Beale, who has recently taken a dubious tree hugging approach to tackling, has had serious defensive issues all season, falling off numerous attackers. And they are confronting the in-form Crusaders centre combination of Ryan Crotty and Jack Goodhue.
Again, good luck.
The other serious risk revolves around the recall of captain Michael Hooper. He hasn't played since June after damaging his hamstring against Ireland. So in his first start one cannot expect him to be right on top of his game, or approach the Test with his usual intensity due to concerns over how his leg will stand up under pressure for the first time in many weeks. He will be frothing, but there is bound to be some hesitation.
As with Hodge, who will be the focus of a great deal of All Blacks attack, the All Blacks will want to expose Hooper as soon as possible- particularly as the back-row tussle will ultimately determine who wins in Sydney. Probably the smarter option would be to play Hooper off the bench, especially as it would have given Cheika the chance to start the Crusaders' Pete Samu at No 8, and David Pocock at openside flanker.
Then again there is a sense of desperation with Hooper's selection, especially after the startling announcement a few days ago that Rugby Australia has signed him up for the next five years. Yes, five years.
Five years is a long, long time, and a sure sign that those in charge of rugby in this country are getting very desperate about keeping hold of anyone of note.
The local rugby scene isn't exactly overflowing with world-class talent, and while good luck to Hooper for stitching up a lucrative $6 million deal, it is excessive, especially at a time when Rugby Australia cries poor, repeatedly ignoring the grassroots of the game.
Also pushing it somewhat was All Blacks coach Steve Hansen hilarious stand-up routine when he tried to make the Wallabies even more desperate by stating they had to be favourites for Sydney.
The latest wacky dose of Hansen mumbo jumbo had the desired effect. The pressure was reverted back onto the Wallabies, and with it the expectation that they really should win this, as after all they are on home territory and had won the last trans-Tasman Test. So Australia had everything to lose. It was cheeky gibberish from Hansen, and it will most probably work, especially as the Wallabies so often lose their way when they either have to think too much or the questions become too hard.
Tip: All Blacks by 12.