Denny Hamlin knows what he faces to try to advance to the next round of the NASCAR playoffs.
And as he left Richmond Raceway following a 16th-place finish Saturday night, he didn't really care what he had to do Sunday at the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course.
"I probably need to go there and win," Hamlin said on a night when his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch won for the seventh time this year while he remained winless. "I'm not worried about the playoffs. I'm just worried about running better.
"With our teammate winning and us running like a bag of s---, it's just disappointing every week."
Several drivers wrecked in testing a couple of months ago, and many expect an unpredictable event. Even a driver such as Hamlin, who has one road-course win and six top-5s in his career, can't think he can avoid the perils of a course with little runoff and little room for error.
And that's not to mention having a car that a driver has confidence in to make moves.
"In race trim, it just seems like I can't get the car to do anything it is supposed to do," said Hamlin, who won the pole at The Glen earlier this year but wasn't a factor in the race. "I can make it go fast for a lap in qualifying, but it just will not do the things that it's supposed to do around the race track -- and things when I watch the 18 [of Busch], it's doing successfully."
Hamlin probably has to win, as his chances of making up 29 points and leapfrogging at least four drivers in the standings appears unlikely. The four playoff drivers winless in the round and lowest in points won't advance following Charlotte.
Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch have advanced with wins, and Martin Truex Jr. has advanced by points, meaning there are nine spots left.
Harvick is the only driver with a really comfortable position. Hamlin and teammate Erik Jones are the two drivers who more than likely need a win, or at least a top-5.
"Denny, what we've got to do is throw caution to the wind," team owner Joe Gibbs said. "That'll be two cars that I think will just be -- we've got a lot of ground to make up, and so I think they'll be very aggressive."
Here are the outlooks and clinching scenarios for drivers. We list points ahead of 12th and 13th for those above the bubble; the list includes points behind 12th and 11th for those outside the bubble because if a driver from outside the top-12 wins, another driver might need to be in the top-11 in the standings to advance.
Points: 53 points ahead of 12th, 57 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: 40th
Outlook: He is safe. All he needs to do is start the race. That's what 50 playoffs points gets you: some breathing room. Or a lot of breathing room.
Points: 21 points ahead of 12th, 25 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: Fourth
Outlook: Logano is a solid road-course racer. He just needs to avoid trouble and he should be fine. Don't remind him he was 19th at Sonoma and 37th at Watkins Glen this year.
Points: 19 points ahead of 12th, 23 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: Second
Outlook: If Almirola can relax, stay on course and stay out of people's messes, he will more than likely advances. The key: don't beat himself, make others need to have great days to force him out. He was eighth at Sonoma and 22nd at Watkins Glen.
Points: 13 points ahead of 12th, 17 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: No way that a driver this good could be gone after the first round? The one thing to know: Larson isn't going to crack under the pressure. That means he should have a good shot unless there is a mechanical issue. He was 14th at Sonoma (where he won the pole) and sixth at Watkins Glen.
Points: 11 points ahead of 12th, 15 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: Busch is one of the better road-course drivers on the circuit, and he is great with car control. Those skills should carry him through. He was sixth at Sonoma and ninth at Watkins Glen.
Points: 6 points ahead of 12th; 10 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: The Watkins Glen winner would love to have another day like that one. He's in a precarious position, and his best bets are to follow the strategy of Bowyer and Johnson. Then again, he was fourth at Sonoma. Can he afford to dictate his strategy with his history of top-5 road-course runs this year?
Points: 6 points ahead of 12th; 10 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: He has been pretty impressive in the playoffs. If he can make it out of this round, the second round includes good tracks for him. But he should be nervous, and his key could be qualifying well and earning stage points. He was 16th at Sonoma and 27th at The Glen.
Points: 1 point ahead of 12th; 5 points ahead of 13th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: Bowman would love to have more of a cushion going into this road course, but he has a ninth and 14th on the road courses this year. To advance, he'll have to be there at the finish, and if he is running at the finish on the lead lap, at least he has given himself a chance.
Points: 4 points ahead of 13th; 1 point behind 11th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: He was 12th at Watkins Glen but 34th at Sonoma this year. He might need another day like Watkins Glen, and that could be a tough task.
Points: 4 points behind 12th, 5 points behind 11th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: Bowyer has won on a road course in a Cup car. He has had good cars this year. He is in the best position to rally. He was third at Sonoma and 11th at Watkins Glen this year. What are the odds of three solid road-course finishes in one season?
Points: 6 points behind 12th, 7 points behind 11th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: Johnson joked that maybe he should crash the drivers ahead of him in points. At least we think he was joking. He was 11th at Sonoma and 30th at Watkins Glen this year.
Erik Jones
Points: 21 points behind 12th, 22 points behind 11th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: Jones is fairly unlikely to make up the ground, and a win is not really all that likely. But he was seventh at Sonoma and fifth at Watkins Glen, so if he can score some stage points, who knows?
Denny Hamlin
Points: 29 points behind 12th, 30 points behind 11th
Clinches if finishes: First
Outlook: Hamlin pretty much needs to win. He has won at a road course before at Sonoma, but he's a frustrated driver at the moment. He was on the pole at Watkins Glen and still finished 13th.