NASCAR Cup series playoff watch: Who's in, on bubble and long shot?

Midway through the NASCAR Cup Series regular season, the 2018 playoff field is taking shape.

Last year, two drivers on the outside looking in at the midway point made the playoffs: Both Ryan Blaney and Kasey Kahne earned wins that guaranteed them spots.

Clint Bowyer, 29 points ahead of the cutoff at the midway point in 2017, didn't make the playoff field. Joey Logano (28 points) didn't, either. Matt Kenseth (eight points) remained above the cutoff to advance to the playoffs on points.

Here's a look at a breakdown of where the playoff picture stands going into the second half -- the final 13 races -- of the regular season.

Locks with a win

Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Bowyer and Austin Dillon

These six drivers have victories this year, and while there still could be more than 16 race winners in the regular season, that scenario appears to be a pipe dream at best. These winners will be in the playoffs as long as they are in the top 30 in points -- and they will be. Dillon, the lowest among the winners at 19th in the standings, has a 99-point cushion on 31st in the standings (Trevor Bayne) and 154 points on No. 32 (Gray Gaulding).

Feeling great

Brad Keselowski, Kurt Busch, Denny Hamlin

These three drivers are at least 120 points -- two full races -- ahead of the current cutoff. Keselowski has a 141-point edge on the first driver currently out (Ricky Stenhouse Jr.), and Busch and Hamlin are 133 points ahead. Only a total collapse keeps them out of the playoffs.

Keep pace and in

Kyle Larson, Aric Almirola, Blaney

While these three drivers don't have two full races' worth of points as a cushion, they have enough that if they run as consistently as they did in the first half of the season, they shouldn't be in danger even if there are a few upsets along the way. Larson has an 86-point cushion, and Almirola is 80 points ahead and Blaney 79.

On the bubble

Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones, Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott

These four drivers are currently on the inside but are on the bubble. Johnson has a 31-point edge, Jones 18 points and Bowman three points, and Elliott is currently in despite having the same number of points as Stenhouse thanks to the tiebreaker.

Of these four drivers, who is in the most danger? Well, let's take a look:

Johnson: Go ahead, bet against a seven-time champion. Dare you. He'll be in.

Jones: He hasn't been as consistent this year as expected and has led laps in just two races. He has earned stage points in just nine of the 27 stages this year. He has qualified outside the top 12 just twice this year, showing he has speed, but has finished worse than he started in nine of the 13 races. He's vulnerable.

Bowman: He's certainly vulnerable because he's a rookie -- oh, wait, he's not a rookie -- but this scenario is new to him. His performance, especially compared to Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s last year, has been definitely respectable with the Hendrick No. 88 team. He has four top-10s in the past eight races. If he continues on that pace and doesn't have many bad finishes, he should be OK. But the pressure is on, and there's no clue how he will react.

Elliott: His average finish is 14.2, better than that of Bowman (15.0), Johnson (15.7) or Jones (16.5). It's 45 points in penalties that have put him in this position. Elliott is in danger of being the Logano of 2018 as far as the playoffs go -- a driver who just was a little off and didn't make it on points. The 11th-place finish at Charlotte should give him a boost. He needs stage points -- he has earned them in just two stages this year.

Biggest threats

Stenhouse: He is tied with Elliott and has an average finish is 17.7 yet has two top-5s and a 10th, 11th and 15th among his finishes in the past six races. Don't count him out, but winning at Daytona still might be his best shot.

Daniel Suarez: At 51 points out, the playoffs are starting to look out of reach. He has lost momentum the past two weeks, which he couldn't afford.

Jamie McMurray: He's clearly the driver with the most potential to get in despite being 65 points back. His teammate, Larson, is running well, and McMurray has shown flashes of strength.

Ryan Newman: He's 66 points back and appears to be in a rut as Richard Childress Racing continues to look for answers. But if there is an opportunity to win in a fuel-mileage race or with a strategy twist, he's got a shot.

Long shots

Paul Menard: At 33 points back and with a history of getting off to strong starts only to fade during the summer, Menard doesn't appear to be in a position to make a run.

William Byron: A rookie and 66 points out of contention, he probably needs to win. And he hasn't been close to winning. If Hendrick gets its cars better, though, Byron has proved in other series that he knows how to get the job done.

Darrell Wallace Jr.: He's a rookie, too, and is 68 points behind. This team is doing well for the funding it has, but teams that are trying to piece together sponsorship don't tend to get comparatively stronger during the season because other teams have more money to spend to develop better parts and pieces. Just the fact he is in this conversation is a sign of Wallace's potential, though.

AJ Allmendinger: He's 82 points behind, so making it on points is not all that realistic. But two road course races remain, so he has a shot.