Allen Robinson
2018 outlook: The Bears signed veteran Allen Robinson in free agency to be their No. 1 wide receiver. But Robinson, who'll receive $25.2 million in guarantees from Chicago, is still recovering from a torn ACL he suffered last year in Week 1. Robinson did not participate in any team drills -- open to the media -- during the Bears' offseason program, but coach Matt Nagy said on numerous occasions that Robinson will be full-go when the club reports to training camp in July. -- Jeff Dickerson, ESPN Bears reporter
Projected target share: 25 percent. Robinson is the first player on our list who changed teams during the offseason, but there's no doubt he's Chicago's No. 1 wideout after signing a three-year, $42 million contract. The former Jaguar went down with a torn ACL after three snaps last year but ranked top eight in the league in targets in both 2015 and 2016. He handled a 25 percent target share both seasons. -- Clay
Doug Baldwin
2018 outlook: He has led the Seahawks in receiving in five of his seven seasons and barely missed out on his third consecutive 1,000-yard campaign last year. He also gets paid like an elite receiver thanks to a contract that averages $11.5 million and has three seasons left. Baldwin's 29 receiving touchdowns since 2015 are second in the NFL behind Antonio Brown's 31. With Jimmy Graham gone, the Seahawks will need all the TD production they can get out of their No. 1 receiver. -- Brady Henderson, ESPN Seahawks reporter
Projected target share: 24 percent. Baldwin is the only player in this tier who wasn't drafted. Baldwin enters his age-30 campaign after handling a target share of at least 21 percent each of the past four seasons. Though Baldwin's shares haven't been as high as many other clear No. 1 wideouts, he has paced the team in targets in four consecutive seasons, and the likes of Tyler Lockett and Brandon Marshall aren't likely to overtake him in 2018. -- Clay
T.Y. Hilton
2018 outlook: T.Y. Hilton felt the biggest impact of not having starting quarterback Andrew Luck (shoulder) last season. Hilton had 966 receiving yards, which was his lowest total since his rookie year in 2012. Hilton, who still played in his fourth straight Pro Bowl last season, is headed into the fourth year of his six-year, $66 million contract and plans to bounce back from his down 2017 season. It'll help Hilton that Luck, barring any kind of setback, will be the starter, and you can expect Hilton to be used in a variety of ways in new coach Frank Reich's offense. -- Mike Wells, ESPN Colts reporter
Projected target share: 23 percent. Hilton has led Colts wide receivers in targets each of the past five seasons, handling a 23 percent share during the span. His total of 651 targets during the five seasons is seventh-most in the NFL, and no other Colt has more than 262. The likes of Ryan Grant and Chester Rogers aren't threats to his No. 1 standing. -- Clay
Michael Crabtree
2018 outlook: Joe Flacco already has referred to the Ravens' biggest free-agent addition as "the guy," and their rapport has stood out in offseason practices. Crabtree won't be running past many cornerbacks, but he's physical and will fight for contested passes. The best comparable is Anquan Boldin, who led the Ravens in receiving yards in each of his three seasons in Baltimore (2010-12). Crabtree signed a three-year, $21 million contract in March, but it could just be a one-year, $8 million deal if he doesn't pan out this season. -- Jamison Hensley, ESPN Ravens reporter
Projected target share: 23 percent. Crabtree signed a three-year, $21 million contract with Baltimore after pacing Oakland in targets each of the past three seasons and the 49ers each season spanning 2010-12. During weeks he has been active, Crabtree has handled a target share of at least 21 percent all nine seasons of his NFL career. The Ravens revamped their wide receiver room during the offseason, but Crabtree is clearly ahead of John Brown and Willie Snead on the depth chart. -- Clay
Kelvin Benjamin
2018 outlook: This will be a critically important season for Kelvin Benjamin after he has seen his availability and production decline since he set career highs as a rookie in 2014. Staying on the field and avoiding further injury to his knees will be the first priority for Benjamin, but he must also turn his rare combination of size and ability into hard evidence that he is worth the same sort of contract as a slew of his accomplished peers from the 2014 draft signed. Benjamin is entering the final year of his rookie deal, and general manager Brandon Beane is holding off on contract talks until he at least gets a good look at Benjamin in training camp. -- Mike Rodak, ESPN Bills reporter
Projected target share: 23 percent. This one might be tougher to sort out if 2017 second-round pick Zay Jones had a better rookie campaign, but his struggles make it pretty clear that Benjamin is Buffalo's No. 1 wide receiver. Benjamin has experience in the role, handling 27 and 21 percent target shares during his two full seasons in Carolina and a 17 percent share in six "full" games with Buffalo last year. -- Clay
Alshon Jeffery
2018 outlook: Alshon Jeffery played 2017 with a torn rotator cuff and still managed to post 57 catches, 789 yards and nine touchdowns during the regular season and came up big during the team's postseason run. He was rewarded with a four-year, $52 million contract that runs through 2021. The injury kept him from practicing this spring. Coach Doug Pederson said training camp "is going to be real important" for Jeffery. Assuming he returns to full health, he should continue to produce as Carson Wentz's No. 1 wide receiver. -- Tim McManus, ESPN Eagles reporter
Projected target share: 22 percent. Jeffery's 22 percent target share in 2017 doesn't exactly jump off the page, but he saw 26 more targets than No. 2 Nelson Agholor. During weeks he was active, Jeffery averaged a hefty 26 percent share during the past five seasons.
Julian Edelman
2018 outlook: The 32-year-old is facing a four-game suspension to open the season (pending appeal) for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing substances, and he missed all of the 2017 season with a torn ACL. Edelman is one of Tom Brady's go-to guys, as evidenced by his 98-catch season in 2016. He is signed through the 2019 season and is scheduled to earn a base salary of $2 million in both 2018 and 2019. In Edelman's possible absence the first four games, Chris Hogan would elevate to the No. 1 spot. -- Mike Reiss, ESPN Patriots reporter
Projected target share: 21 percent (during 12 active weeks). Although Edelman is suspended four games to start the 2018 season, he's here because he fits the bill when active. It might seem surprising to see a Patriot in this tier, but Edelman has been a workhorse in recent years. Including only the weeks he was active, Edelman handled a target share of at least 24 percent each season spanning 2013-16. That includes a massive 29 percent share in 2016, when he ranked third in the league with 157 targets. The likes of No. 2 WR Chris Hogan (has never eclipsed 60 targets in a season) and Jordan Matthews (is not assured a roster spot) aren't realistic threats to Edelman for the No. 1 gig. -- Clay
Tier 2: Not-quite No. 1s
Devin Funchess
2018 outlook: Funchess inherited the No. 1 receiver spot in 2017 when the Panthers traded Kelvin Benjamin to Buffalo. He responded with a career-best 63 catches for 840 yards and eight touchdowns, but he has yet to prove he's a true No. 1. Coach Ron Rivera even said after last season that it remains to be seen whether Funchess is a No. 1 or No. 2. With the addition of Torrey Smith and first-round pick D.J. Moore, Funchess could fall to No. 3. It's a big year for the former second-round pick out of Michigan, entering the final year of his rookie deal. He needs to show more consistency and ability to perform in the clutch if he expects the Panthers to re-sign him after this season. -- David Newton, ESPN Panthers reporter
Projected target share: 22 percent. Carolina appeared to commit to Funchess as its No. 1 wide receiver when it traded Benjamin to Buffalo last season. Funchess went on to handle a 23 percent target share on the year and was on the field for 90 percent of the team's pass plays. Of course, the waters were muddied in April when the team selected Moore with the 24th overall pick of the draft. Funchess figures to enter 2018 as Cam Newton's top wideout, but Moore is expected to play a major role early and could steal away the job if he's up to the task. -- Clay
Marqise Lee
2018 outlook: Lee led the Jaguars in receptions last season (56) and has 119 catches over the past two seasons, but he has just six TD catches in that span. He has not been a deep threat (13.1 yards per catch over the past two seasons) and instead has been more of a catch-and-run guy. Still, he has proven to be a reliable player, has fought through several nagging injuries and should again be the Jags' top pass-catcher in 2018. However, with the addition of receiver Donte Moncrief, tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins and the continued development of receivers Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook, the ball will be spread around, so Lee's catch total might not get out of the 50s. Lee signed a four-year, $34 million contract ($16.5 million guaranteed) in March, but all of the guaranteed money is in the first two seasons. -- Mike DiRocco, ESPN Jaguars reporter
Projected target share: 21 percent. Lee sits atop the Jaguars' depth chart, but he has yet to eclipse a 19 percent target share or finish top 25 in the league in targets during his four-year career. The Jaguars did commit to Lee long term by signing him to a four-year, $38 million extension while letting Allen Robinson move on to Chicago. However, they also handed Moncrief $9.6 million, spent a second-round pick on D.J. Chark and have Westbrook in the fold. -- Clay
Pierre Garcon
2018 outlook: Garcon is the Niners' most experienced and accomplished receiver but is returning from a neck injury that limited him to eight games in 2017. With Garcon out, Marquise Goodwin emerged as the team's top wideout, especially after Jimmy Garoppolo took over at quarterback. But Garcon and Garoppolo should be able to get on the same page in relatively short order given Garcon's intermediate route-running ability and Garoppolo's accuracy on such throws. Garcon has four years left on the five-year deal he signed in 2017, but every year after 2018 comes in the form of a club option. With Goodwin signing an offseason extension and the Niners using a second-round pick on Dante Pettis, there are options in place should Garcon be unable to produce. But he remains a strong locker room presence and should still be able to be a top target for Garoppolo in 2018, even if his numbers don't approach those of a more "traditional" No. 1 receiver. -- Nick Wagoner, ESPN 49ers reporter
Projected target share: 20 percent. Garcon was the 49ers' clear-cut No. 1 wideout this time last year, but Goodwin's emergence and, to a lesser extent, the team's second-round selection of Pettis can't be overlooked. Garcon has averaged a target share of at least 19 percent when active each of the past eight seasons, but Goodwin has eclipsed 17 percent each of the past two years and figures to be right on Garcon's heels for the team lead in 2018. -- Clay
Tier 3: Emerging No. 1 WRs
Amari Cooper
2018 outlook: Sure, Cooper had a down year in 2017, catching a career-low 48 passes for a career-worst 680 yards, but returning coach Jon Gruden still sees the oft-explosive Cooper as a "focal point" of the Raiders' rebuilt passing offense -- a "centerpiece" of the entire offense. "It was cool," Cooper said in OTAs of Gruden's thoughts. "Obviously, as a receiver, you want to go out there and make plays for your team and win. So for him to say that, it really meant a lot to me. I'm just ready to come out here and work and prove that I deserve to have those opportunities." With new receiving mates Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant, Cooper could see more time in the slot. Per Pro Football Focus data, Cooper's 2.21 yards per route run from the slot ranked third in the NFL among receivers with 90 or more slot routes run last season. And who can forget Cooper's tour de force against the Kansas City Chiefs of 11 catches on 19 targets for 210 yards and two touchdowns on a Thursday night last season? Not the Raiders, who exercised the fifth-year option for 2019 on Cooper, the No. 4 overall draft pick of the 2015 draft. -- Paul Gutierrez, ESPN Raiders reporter
Projected target share: 24 percent. Gruden is on record that the team is planning on featuring Cooper, but the fourth-year wide receiver has never led his team in targets (falling short to Michael Crabtree all three seasons) and has yet to eclipse a 23 percent target share in a single season (he was at 19 percent during 14 active games last year). Crabtree is gone, but the Raiders signed Nelson and traded for Martavis Bryant. Cooper is positioned to make a leap, but if his inefficiencies continue, this might be more of a committee. -- Clay
Corey Davis
2018 outlook: It's all about potential for Corey Davis, the No. 5 overall pick in the 2017 draft. The Titans are counting on him to make a huge jump in Year 2, becoming their top receiver and a consistent threat for Marcus Mariota. Davis' rookie season was spoiled by injuries, which cost him most of the offseason, all of the preseason and five regular-season games. He finished with 34 catches for 375 yards and no touchdowns in the regular season, but his potential showed in the playoffs when he caught two TDs against the Patriots. Davis is healthy, gaining much-needed chemistry with Mariota. It's not unreasonable to expect Davis to get close to 1,000 yards in Year 2. -- Cameron Wolfe, ESPN Titans reporter
Projected target share: 23 percent. Davis struggled with injuries as a rookie, but there's no question the Titans are expecting the 2017 fifth overall pick to emerge as Mariota's go-to target this year. Davis was on the field for 86 percent of Tennessee's pass plays and averaged a 19 percent target share during the 13 games he was active last year. Rishard Matthews has led Titans' wide receivers in targets each of the past two seasons. -- Clay
Robby Anderson
2018 outlook: Anderson is the closest thing the Jets have to a No. 1 receiver. Already one of the league's top deep threats, Anderson can raise his stature by becoming a better all-around receiver, which will require improved route running. The concerns with him are his off-the-field habits; he has had two arrests in the past 13 months and faces potential league discipline. Anderson is entering the final year of his rookie contract, but he'll be only a restricted free agent, meaning the Jets own his rights through 2019. A long-term deal is unlikely unless he matures off the field. -- Rich Cimini, ESPN Jets reporter
Projected target share: 20 percent. Anderson went undrafted in 2016 but showed flashes on 77 snaps as a rookie before enjoying a breakout 2017 campaign. The Temple product handled a generous, team-high 23 percent target share. Off-field troubles raise questions about Anderson's ability to emerge as a consistent No. 1 wideout, and the team also added Terrelle Pryor Sr. to a wide receiver room that also includes Quincy Enunwa (missed all of last year with a neck injury), Jermaine Kearse and Chad Hansen. -- Clay
DeVante Parker
2018 outlook: Parker has the size (6-foot-3 and 212 pounds) to stand out from the Dolphins' crowded pack of pass-catchers, but calling him a No. 1 receiver after scoring just one touchdown last season would be a stretch. Unless he takes a step forward and lives up to his billing as the No. 14 overall pick in 2015, Parker is likely to be part of a committee approach by Miami at the position that should include newcomers Danny Amendola and Albert Wilson, as well as Kenny Stills. The Dolphins exercised Parker's fifth-year contract option this offseason that would pay him $9.4 million in 2019, but that is not fully guaranteed until next March, and he will need to earn it this season. -- Mike Rodak, ESPN reporter
Projected target share: 19 percent. Jarvis Landry is gone, which opens the door for 2015 first-round pick Parker to finally emerge as Miami's No. 1 wide receiver. Parker has been on the field for 90 percent of the pass plays and has handled a 20 percent target share during 28 "full" games over the past two seasons. The likes of Stills, Wilson and perhaps Amendola will push to lead Miami in targets this season. -- Clay
Josh Doctson
2018 outlook: Keep in mind that the Redskins' top receiving target is tight end Jordan Reed; the passing game goes through him -- when he's healthy. But Doctson is their most talented wideout and plays the X position. Jamison Crowder might end up with more receptions, but he'll do so out of the slot. Doctson missed all but two games his rookie year because of an injury then caught 35 passes with six touchdowns in 2017. Coaches hope new QB Alex Smith will help Doctson by throwing more passes even when Doctson is contested, trusting that he can make the catch. It's possible he could be a 60-catch receiver, but with big plays down the field because of how well he tracks the ball. Doctson is entering his third season; the Redskins will have to decide next spring if they want to pick up his fifth-year option. -- John Keim, ESPN Redskins reporter
Projected target share: 18 percent. Doctson was on the field for 93 percent of the Redskins' pass plays and handled an 18 percent target share following a Week 7 promotion last year. Crowder and newcomer Paul Richardson could certainly force a committee here, but there's no question Washington would like its 2016 first-round pick to break out and become the team's clear-cut top receiver in 2018. -- Clay
Tier 4: Committee attack
Josh Gordon/Jarvis Landry
2018 outlook: Numbers from a few years ago point to Josh Gordon as the Browns top receiver, but recent production might actually point to Jarvis Landry, who has averaged 105 catches the past three seasons. The Browns gave Landry a five-year, $75.5 million contract extension and figure to start him opposite Gordon. Landry actually could be the guy who opens up the field for Gordon and lets Gordon provide the big plays while Landry provides the consistent catches. -- Pat McManamon, ESPN Browns reporter
Projected target share: 25/25 percent. Gordon and Landry are different style receivers, but both have No. 1 WR qualities. Gordon led the NFL in receiving in 2013 and ranked eighth in targets during the five weeks he was active last season. He's averaging a massive 28 percent target share over his past 24 games. Landry has handled a target share of at least 27 percent and has finished top 15 at the position in targets, receptions and receiving yards each of the past three years. -- Clay
Adam Thielen/Stefon Diggs
2018 outlook: The 2018 season could make Diggs the next receiver to earn a mega-deal, joining the likes of Davante Adams, Jarvis Landry and others who are earning around $13 million to $15 million per year. Injuries have prevented Diggs from playing all 16 games the past two seasons, and it'll be important for him to stay healthy for his next contract -- whether it's with the Vikings or another team. The Vikings could elect to give him a new contract ahead of training camp like they've done for players in the past and lock him up before he becomes a free agent. If they don't, Diggs could increase his pending payday even further by following up on a strong season with an even better 2018, when he has Kirk Cousins throwing him the ball. Minnesota has the league's top receiver duo between Diggs and Thielen. Keeping those two together, however difficult that might be financially with the salary cap, should certainly be a priority. -- Courtney Cronin, ESPN Vikings reporter
Projected target share: 24/22 percent. Thielen handled a 27 percent target share during his breakout 2017 season, and Diggs has been between 22 and 24 percent when active during his first three NFL seasons. -- Clay
Tyreek Hill/Sammy Watkins
2018 outlook: Hill's numbers might not match those from last season (75-1,183-7) because the Chiefs added another legitimate threat at wide receiver in Watkins, but Hill remains a vital part of the Kansas City offense because of his big-play ability. Hill has two seasons remaining on the rookie contract he signed with the Chiefs in 2016 as a sixth-round draft pick. -- Adam Teicher, ESPN Chiefs reporter
Projected target share: 23/21 percent. Hill isn't your traditional No. 1 wideout, standing at 5-foot-10, 185 pounds and contributing often as a rusher and returner in addition to a large role as a wide receiver. Still, there's no question he emerged as Kansas City's top wideout last year, handling 23 percent of the targets while playing 82 percent of the offensive snaps in 16 games. He'll have more competition for targets this year with 2014 fourth overall pick Watkins in the house. Last season's 15 percent target share was underwhelming, but Watkins was on the field for 88 percent of the Rams' pass plays and handled a 25 percent share while operating as the Bills' clear top wide receiver from 2014-16. -- Clay
Golden Tate/Marvin Jones Jr.
2018 outlook: Since joining the Lions in 2014, Tate is ninth in the league in yards (4,224) and sixth in receptions (372) -- ahead of DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, Mike Evans and A.J. Green in catches. What sets him apart is his ability after the catch. In that same time frame, Tate has 2,460 yards after catch -- the most in the NFL. -- Michael Rothstein, ESPN Lions reporter
Projected target share: 22/18 percent. Jones has emerged into one of the game's top deep threats, but it's Tate who has been the target hog in Detroit in recent years. Tate has handled 23 percent of the team's targets since joining the team in 2014, finishing top 10 in the league in receptions all four seasons. Jones is 46 targets behind Tate since signing with Detroit in 2016 but has played more snaps and runs more routes. -- Clay
Robert Woods/Cooper Kupp/Brandin Cooks
2018 outlook: A second-round pick in 2013, Woods spent the first four seasons of his career with the Buffalo Bills, regarded as a No. 2 receiver. But last season, Woods became Jared Goff's go-to target and proved he had top-playmaker potential. He finished 2017 with 56 catches for 781 yards and five touchdowns -- including 52-yard and 94-yard scores -- despite missing three games because of a shoulder injury. Woods is in the second season of a five-year deal worth $34 million. He'll have to share more of his targets in 2018, as Goff and newly acquired deep threat Brandin Cooks developed some chemistry this offseason, but expect Woods to remain Goff's favorite target. -- Lindsey Thiry, ESPN Rams reporter
Projected target share: 21/20/19 percent. The Rams had a third wide receiver on the field when passing a league-high 92 percent of the time last season. This means all three of Woods, Kupp and Cooks (who was signed to replace Watkins) will be near-full-time players in 2018. Cooks has some experience as a No. 1 receiver but has never eclipsed a 20 percent target share through four seasons. Woods averaged a share in the 19-20 percent range during his first four years in Buffalo before breaking out and pacing the Rams at 23 percent last year. Slot man Kupp handled a 20 percent share as a rookie last season. -- Clay
Allen Hurns/Terrance Williams
2018 outlook: The Cowboys say they will go with a committee approach at receiver, but Allen Hurns is the only wideout with a 1,000-yard season to his credit, with 1,031 yards in 2015. He did not top 500 yards in his final two seasons with Jacksonville, which played a part in his release, although he missed 11 games in 2016 and '17. The Cowboys don't need him to replace the 2012-14 Dez Bryant, who averaged more than 1,200 yards and double-digit touchdowns, but they will need him to be the leader of the committee. He had a good start to his work with Dak Prescott in the offseason program but will need to continue that once training camp begins. -- Todd Archer, ESPN Cowboys reporter
Projected target share: 19/15 percent. Dez Bryant and his career 25 percent target share are gone, which means the Cowboys' wide receiver competition is wide open in 2018. Hurns averaged a share right at 18 percent during each of his four seasons in Jacksonville, Williams hasn't eclipsed 18 percent during five years in Dallas, and Cole Beasley has cleared 14 percent only once in his career (21 percent in 2016). The three veterans and rookie Michael Gallup figure to lead the unit in 2018, but there might not be much separation in targets between the No. 1 and No. 4 option. -- Clay
