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For the first time since Trevor Lawrence in 2021, there is a consensus No. 1 quarterback prospect in the 2024 NFL draft: USC standout and 2022 Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams. Given how correlated quarterback performance is with team wins, the team with the first pick often needs a quarterback. The Chicago Bears have that pick via the Carolina Panthers, but they also had a quarterback (Justin Fields) who finished 23rd out of 30 quarterbacks in Total QBR in 2023. Fields is now in Pittsburgh, and Chicago will more than likely select Williams. That means the quarterback-needy Washington Commanders and New England Patriots, who are picking second and third overall, are in a position to draft North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels. There is also a potentially generational wide receiver prospect available in Marvin Harrison Jr., but because of the outsized impact a quarterback has on team success (see Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs trading now-eight-time Pro Bowl wide receiver Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, then winning back-to-back Super Bowls), it is likely that the Commanders and Patriots will both select quarterbacks. In doing so, they will hope they land this year's C.J. Stroud. ESPN Radio's "Unsportsmanlike" host Evan Cohen posted on X that ideally, you should "draft a QB when you want one, so you never need one." The Chiefs with Mahomes and the Green Bay Packers with Jordan Love provide a strong case for Cohen's point. But Stroud won Offensive Rookie of the Year and led the Houston Texans to the AFC South title, so if the quarterback pick is right, it can work out even if it is made out of necessity. Then there are Michigan's J.J. McCarthy, Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., who could go in the first round to any of the teams after the third pick that might be looking for a change at quarterback, such as the New York Giants (No. 6), Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) and Denver Broncos (No. 12). McCarthy has been mocked as high as No. 4 overall. Finally, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler is a potential Day 2 pick who could end up on a team looking to upgrade its backup quarterback. With the above background, we present this year's QBASE 2.0 projections for the 2024 quarterback class. QBASE 2.0 is a combination of Andrew Healy's (2015) original QBASE model and Olbrecht and Rosen's (2018) functional mobility model. It factors in a quarterback's college passing statistics adjusted for the quality of his teammates and opponents, as well as the number of years he started in college. It also incorporates his rushing ability (see Daniels), and while it rewards improvements over time (Daniels again), it penalizes one-year wonders (once again, Daniels). The quarterbacks below are listed in order of ranking on a consensus big board, and interpreting each quarterback's projection is straightforward. A value of 0 Total defense-adjusted yards above replacement per attempt (TDYAR/A) is replacement-level, whereas any value over 1.5 is indicative of a Hall of Fame career. We run 50,000 simulations to provide a distribution of the number of times that each quarterback falls within a particular range. Here are our 2024 projections.  Projections for the 2024 class
 Caleb Williams, USC
Consensus Big Board: 1 Williams is the consensus top quarterback in this draft for good reason. He won the Heisman Trophy in 2022 and followed it up with a very strong 2023. He threw for more yards per attempt (9.36) and had a higher completion rate (68.6%) than he did in 2022, despite USC's overall struggles. He has an elite arm and exceptional playmaking ability, which is reflected in both his passing and his rushing numbers. In addition, he has a consistent track of success, excelling ever since he took Spencer Rattler's starting job at Oklahoma in 2021. If the Chicago Bears decide to draft him first overall, QBASE raises no objection.
 Drake Maye, North Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 2 Maye is viewed by many as the second-best quarterback prospect in this draft. However, QBASE is more skeptical, because relative to the other prospects, his college statistics were not that impressive (for instance, his 63.3 completion percentage in 2023). In addition, Maye was only a two-year starter, and his 2023 performance regressed relative to 2022. Yes, there were circumstances at the North Carolina program that may be responsible for that decline, such as the departure of Maye's top two receivers for the NFL (Josh Downs and Antoine Green). And there are quarterbacks with relatively lackluster college statistics who have excelled in the pros, such as Josh Allen. Maye's great arm talent and skill make him a strong candidate to do so. But college statistics are correlated with NFL success here, so Maye's projection is lower than it would be otherwise.
 Jayden Daniels, LSU
Consensus Big Board: 4 Daniels put up video game numbers in 2023, claiming the Heisman Trophy in the process. His passer rating of 208.0 was an FBS record, and he completed 72.2% of his passes for 11.7 yards per attempt. Not only that, but his 8.4 rushing yards per attempt exceeded every one of Lamar Jackson's seasons at Louisville. However, there are still concerns. He is a one-year wonder who took too many sacks, he got to throw to a projected top-10 pick in Malik Nabers, and teams will worry about his ability to stay healthy because he runs so much at a slender 6-foot-4, 210 pounds. Then again, the last time a Heisman-winning one-year wonder with an elite receiver came out of LSU (Joe Burrow), it worked out well for the team that drafted him. Ultimately, QBASE favors Daniels over Maye as QB2 in this class.
 J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
Consensus Big Board: 6 McCarthy's 2023 numbers were not as exceptional as Daniels', but in leading Michigan to victory in the College Football Playoff, he did everything the Wolverines asked. He was efficient (72.3% completion percentage), he protected the football (just four interceptions all season) and he picked up yards on the ground when necessary (202 rushing yards and 3.2 per attempt). He was only a two-year starter, and like Daniels, he has shot up draft boards late, both of which hurt his projection. But coach Jim Harbaugh really likes him, calling him the best quarterback in Michigan history (even though Tom Brady went there).
 Bo Nix, Oregon
Consensus Big Board: 31 QBASE has a somewhat positive projection for Nix compared to his expected draft position. Due to the extra year of eligibility the COVID-19 pandemic granted him, he was a five-year starter (though QBASE only gives him credit for the usual maximum of four years), and he improved every year he played. His 77.4% completion percentage in 2023 is one of the highest in our entire data set, and his passer rating and rushing yards per attempt came in second this year, behind Daniels. On the downside, his 6.3 air yards per attempt in 2023 was the worst of this year's prospects, and this year's QBASE adds a penalty to account for that. And at 24 years old come Sept. 1 (which is the cutoff date we use for a prospect's age), he is the oldest of this year's prospects, though his age penalty is still much smaller than Hendon Hooker's was last year. Nix is not Justin Herbert -- he did not have the four years of success Herbert had in Oregon, nor does he have Herbert's elite arm strength -- but QBASE still views him as a first-round pick.
 Michael Penix Jr., Washington
Consensus Big Board: 32 Also 24 years old on Sept. 1 (though slightly younger than Nix), Penix played six years of college football. Like Daniels and Nix, he received an extra year of eligibility because of COVID-19. Unlike them, his 2022 performance was comparable to his 2023 showing -- which is good, since he is not a one-year wonder. But he has additional concerns the others do not have. First, he tore his right ACL twice and seriously injured both shoulders at Indiana, where he played before transferring to Washington in 2022. Also, his rushing yards per attempt took a big step back in 2023 at just 0.2, and he struggled when being pressured out of the pocket, both of which hurt his projection. He has the pocket passing and sack avoidance skills to succeed in the NFL, but drafting him early means assuming a high bust risk.
 Spencer Rattler, South Carolina
Consensus Big Board: 87 A breakout 2020 season at Oklahoma made Rattler an early Heisman favorite in 2021, but his college career faced a major setback when he lost his starting job to Caleb Williams. However, after transferring to South Carolina in 2022, Rattler bounced back enough to put himself in consideration for a Day 2 pick in this year's draft. While he did not impress with his legs at South Carolina (1.1 rushing yards per attempt in 2023), he completed more than 65% of his passes in both seasons there, throwing for a career-high 3,186 yards in 2023. Overall, QBASE agrees with most scouts that he is unlikely to make it as an NFL starter, but he can be a workable backup. Jeremy Rosen and Alex Olbrecht contributed to this article.
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