NFL free agency buzz: Last-minute intel on signings, trades

The 2024 NFL free agency legal negotiation window opens Monday at noon ET, and deals can become official Wednesday after 4 p.m. ET when the new league year starts (and free agency officially begins). We've already seen some big money this week, including Chris Jones' massive extension in Kansas City, Mike Evans' $52 million deal to stick in Tampa Bay and Justin Madubuike's $98 million contract with Baltimore. But with most of the action set for the next few days, our national NFL reporters -- Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano -- talked to people around the league for last-minute buzz on how things might play out and emptied their notebooks with the latest news and rumors.

What are sources saying about the best free agents, and where might those players land? Which teams could be active? Here's everything we are hearing at the 11th hour before players and teams start agreeing to terms.

(Note: This piece posted Sunday morning, before the Bucs re-signed Baker Mayfield and the Steelers landed Russell Wilson on Sunday night.)

Where will Cousins sign?

Graziano: If you're already picturing Kirk Cousins in a Falcons uniform, you might be jumping the gun. As of the end of this week, Cousins and the Vikings were still talking, and while Minnesota hasn't gotten its offer to the point Cousins wants it, I get the sense the Vikings are still very much in this thing. Cousins likes it there. His family likes it there. He's playing for an outstanding playcaller in Kevin O'Connell and throwing to one of the best receivers in the league in Justin Jefferson. The fans like him. There's no question it's his team. He could absolutely leave if he doesn't get what he wants in a contract, and Atlanta lurks as a possible -- even likely -- destination if that happens. But until the league year opens, the Vikings still have a shot to keep him off the market.

Fowler: The Vikings are still in the game for Cousins. One team source said, "We're not out of it," while another told me it feels like a 50-50 proposition. Atlanta has remained a major threat, and that hasn't changed. He is believed to be the Falcons' No. 1 target, with owner Arthur Blank motivated to solve Atlanta's quarterback issues. The sense is Minnesota wants to re-sign Cousins but will have its limits after paying him $185 million over the past six years. And the Vikings have considered the possibilities should Cousins leave and could use both free agency and the draft to fill the void.

Is Fields on the move?

Graziano: I'm still not hearing anything to convince me the Bears won't take USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the first pick in the draft, which means I believe they'll trade Justin Fields. But they did not find the market they were hoping to find for Fields, so as of now, they're waiting to see what happens with Cousins, Baker Mayfield and maybe some others, and what kind of market emerges once those situations sort themselves out.

The idea that Chicago could get a second-round pick for Fields no longer seems likely, but it's always possible that one of these QB-needy teams will get panicky once other options fly off the board, so it behooves GM Ryan Poles to wait. Right now, the message the Bears are getting back from teams is that they don't consider Fields more of a sure thing than other potential one-year options such as Sam Darnold or Drew Lock, who wouldn't come with the fifth-year option decision that Fields' eventual team will have to make by early May. It's an odd offseason in which the supply at the quarterback position seems to be higher relative to the demand than usual, which works in favor of the teams who are looking for quarterbacks and likely drives the price down in these kinds of trade talks.

Fowler: Some around the league are starting to wonder whether the Bears have any enticing offers. But one word was used by a source on the situation: "Patience." The Bears aren't panicked despite no deal reached for a Fields trade. If somehow Cousins and Mayfield re-sign with their respective teams, Chicago suddenly has potential leverage with Atlanta. Or if Mayfield leaves, does Fields jump into the fray with Tampa Bay? Letting a few dominoes fall is risky, but it also isn't the worst thing.

Another 2021 QB to be traded?

Graziano (updated): The Patriots traded Mac Jones on Sunday, and the Jets have given Zach Wilson permission to seek a trade -- they're hopeful someone will give them a late-round pick for him. With the Bears likely to trade Fields, three of the five quarterbacks drafted in the top 15 picks in 2021 could be moved this offseason, while another (Trey Lance) was traded last summer. It's a cautionary reminder as we barrel toward a 2024 draft in which some think as many as six quarterbacks could go in the first round.

Can Tampa Bay keep Mayfield?

Fowler: As of late Saturday, the Buccaneers and Mayfield remained in talks but hadn't progressed toward a deal. Multiple teams I've spoken to over the weekend predict Mayfield and the Bucs will land on a three- or four-year deal at some point in the next few days. But this is a budgetary concern for Tampa Bay. Will the Glazer family, which paid the great Tom Brady $97.8 million over three seasons, be willing to pay Mayfield that kind of money ... or more? Tampa Bay also has to pay left tackle Tristan Wirfs eventually, and possibly at a market-resetting clip. Either way, the Bucs' front office appears motivated to do this, as it sorted out Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. (franchise tag) with thoughts of focusing on Mayfield the rest of the week.

Graziano: Mayfield is going to have a market if Tampa Bay doesn't sign him before free agency opens. The fact that the Bucs haven't re-signed him yet is a strong indicator that he doesn't believe they're the only team interested at his price point, which could exceed $40 million per year. If Cousins does stay in Minnesota, I believe the Falcons would look at Mayfield, and I don't think they'd be alone.

(Note: This piece posted Sunday morning, before the Bucs re-signed Baker Mayfield on Sunday night.)

Who will get Wilson?

Graziano: The Giants and the Steelers have already spoken with quarterback Russell Wilson, and I don't think they'll be the only teams to do so. The key thing to understand with Wilson is that he is practically free. He is owed $39 million fully guaranteed from the Broncos this season no matter what, and any money he earns from another team this year will be offset against that $39 million -- meaning the Broncos basically get that amount back. Wilson has no motivation to do the Broncos any favors, so he has no motivation to take anything more than a minimum salary deal. If you want Wilson on a one-year deal, the most you would have to pay him is $1,377,500 (the $1.21 million minimum salary established by the CBA and $167,500 in additional veteran salary benefit compensation that Article 27 of the CBA allows you to exempt from your salary cap).

One team I'm watching closely for Wilson is the Raiders, who could address the quarterback position in the draft but are currently picking in a spot (No. 13) where whoever they get might not be ready to play right away. The idea of Wilson playing in the AFC West, where he'd get two games a season against the team that's paying his salary, is a fun one, and I'd bet he agrees.

Fowler: Pittsburgh's interest in Wilson is indeed real, as was assured to me by a team source. Wilson arrived at the Steelers facility on Friday afternoon and had what a source described as a "very positive" meeting with the club. While the team has begun the process of rebuilding Kenny Pickett -- offensive coordinator Arthur Smith recently visited him in South Florida -- the Steelers were always bringing in competition. This would be that and then some, as it's hard to imagine Wilson as anything other than a starter.

I'm told Wilson is eager to help his new team on the contract front and enters the free agency process looking not only for the chance to win but also a team with an infrastructure for winning and has done it consistently. Pittsburgh fits that mold. Let's see how this shakes out, but the Steelers appear well-positioned.

(Note: This piece posted Sunday morning, before the Steelers landed Russell Wilson on Sunday night.)

What about the backup QBs?

Fowler: Jacoby Brissett remains an attractive option for teams as a QB2 or bridge starter. New England is expected to be in the mix there. The feeling among teams I've spoken to is the Broncos could roll with Jarrett Stidham but bring in competition via free agency or the draft. Brissett, Darnold and Jameis Winston would make sense in that regard. Tennessee will likely sign a backup but might go with a second-wave passer. Brandon Allen -- a former Brian Callahan disciple -- is a candidate. And watch for Lock in Carolina. He has strong ties to new coach Dave Canales.

Interior line on the rise?

Graziano: Interior line play on both sides of the ball is going to be a theme in free agency. Guards and defensive tackles are likely to do well. Kevin Dotson's new deal with the Rams opened a lot of eyes. His average of $16 million per year is much higher than many anticipated, and the hope among the top free agent guards such as Miami's Robert Hunt, Detroit's Jonah Jackson and Baltimore's John Simpson is that it will push up the ceiling for their own deals.

Star DTs set for big money?

Graziano: After Chris Jones landed a big deal on Saturday night, Miami's Christian Wilkins is likely to be a hot name, with contending teams such as the Texans and Lions looking to upgrade at that position. Other defensive tackles people around the league believe could land nice deals include the Colts' Grover Stewart, the Seahawks' Leonard Williams and Bengals run-stuffer DJ Reader. Jones' five-year deal and the four-year, $98 million deal the Ravens gave Madubuike on Friday night are only going to help the defensive tackles at the top of the market get paid.

Fowler: Wilkins' market is heating up after Miami opted against the franchise tag. Expect at least seven teams to pursue him. The Brian Flores connection in Minnesota is one to watch, but Houston and Cleveland could take swings, too.

And the Seahawks are expected to ramp up their efforts to re-sign Williams, who played well coming off last year's trade. Getting something done before Monday would be optimal for Seattle.

Good market for Hunter?

Graziano: I expect Vikings edge rusher Danielle Hunter to hit the market and do very well. His benchmark is probably the deal the Bears gave Montez Sweat after acquiring him at the trade deadline last year. Coincidentally, Sweat and Hunter are represented by the same agency, so they know how to do a deal like this.

Though not specifically for Hunter, the Seahawks, Colts and Commanders are three of the likely many teams expected to be active in the edge rusher market.

Big cap concerns for the Chargers?

Graziano: There is big Chargers news coming between now and 4 p.m. ET on Wednesday. The question is exactly what that news will be. The Chargers have four key veterans with cap numbers in excess of $32 million: edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, and wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Currently projected to be $21 million over the cap, they have to do something, and it's unlikely they can keep all four of those guys on the team.

Allen is a lifelong Charger -- a third-round pick from 2013 who has never played anywhere else -- and it's unlikely L.A. moves on from him. He has one year left on his contract and a $5 million roster bonus due on the fifth day of the 2024 league year, so the Chargers could look to extend him and find some cap savings that way. They'd love to find trade partners for Mack or Williams, but they'd each carry big numbers for the acquiring teams ($23.25 million for the 33-year-old Mack and $20 million for Williams). Bosa, who is still only 28 and signed through 2025, would cost an acquiring team a total of $47.36 million over the next two years and therefore could be easier to trade. But for the same reasons, he's likely the one the Chargers would prefer to keep from the Bosa/Mack/Williams group.

Be on the lookout for news on pay cuts and/or outright releases involving some of these guys. The Chargers and every other team have to be under the cap by the start of the league year.

Fowler: Multiple teams believe the Chargers are willing to part with several big-money players, including Mack, Bosa and Williams. Trading all three seems like a stretch, but as Dan pointed out, some of those cap hits are untenable, so they must do something. It's worth noting that Williams plans to be ready for training camp coming off an ACL injury.

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What's going on with Miami?

Fowler: The Dolphins, who sit $21 million over the cap via Roster Management System, have essentially let Wilkins walk and now have 26 free agents about to hit the market, many of whom will be tough to keep.

Some league execs are looking at Miami through a Tua Tagovailoa lens. The Dolphins appear dedicated to extending him this offseason, which will be costly, so the cost-analysis could be simply to let Wilkins and Hunt walk and work to backfill those spots. They have gone all-in with splash trades, and now the bill has come due. GM Chris Grier is always good for a sizable move or two. What about pairing Jalen Ramsey with a corner like L'Jarius Sneed? I believe Miami has at least looked into it.

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Ravens following Macdonald?

Graziano: I've heard a lot of speculation about which (if any) Ravens defensive free agents could follow former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald to Seattle now that he's the head coach of the Seahawks. In order of likelihood, based on conversations with my sources, I'd rank them as follows in terms of chances to land in Seattle:

1. Patrick Queen, LB

2. Jadeveon Clowney, DE

3. Geno Stone, S

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Packers in the safety market?

Fowler: Green Bay is considered a threat in the safety market. It wouldn't be a shock if the Packers comb the Xavier McKinney and Kamren Curl markets, depending on the price point. Recently released safety Quandre Diggs could also be an option.

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Bucs keeping one of their own?

Fowler: The Buccaneers will likely try to re-sign linebacker Lavonte David, who made $7.3 million last season and held up well at age 34. One potential team to watch for him is San Francisco. The 49ers are in the market because of Dre Greenlaw's Achilles injury but might not spend at the top of it.

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WR-needy teams looking to Ridley?

Fowler: Expect the Patriots to swing big on receiver Calvin Ridley. The Jaguars are very interested in keeping Ridley but haven't been able to close the deal.

The Patriots were in on Jerry Jeudy before the receiver was traded to Cleveland, but they wanted to wait until free agency before committing to a receiver, likely because they have their eyes on a few.

Graziano: The Panthers are on the hunt for a No. 1 wide receiver, so if -- and I say if -- Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman Jr. ends up available in a trade, they'd likely be involved. I expect them to at least look into Ridley as well, should he hit the market.

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Any more trades coming?

Fowler: Trade names are percolating, and we already saw Jeudy get dealt to Cleveland on Saturday after Denver fielded calls from several interested teams, per sources. The Cowboys are exploring all options with receiver Michael Gallup, including a potential trade. The Panthers could be one to watch here. Teams have also told me that the Buccaneers are open to potentially parting with either of their starting corners, Carlton Davis III or Jamel Dean.

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Will running backs get paid?

Fowler: In running back news, Derrick Henry is unlikely to return to Tennessee, essentially ending a historic eight-year run there. Baltimore has been linked to him. Then there are some people in the league who believe the Cowboys will pursue Saquon Barkley. We shall see on that. The Giants are still in the mix on a potential re-sign but are also looking at other options, such as Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler. I'm also told a Josh Jacobs return to Las Vegas is not off the table.

The running back position will be fascinating because we have several star players available, but who jumps out first with a deal? And will that help or hurt the rest of the group? That's why it wouldn't be a shock if everyone waits a bit until one of the top guys has a surefire good contract.

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Can the Cowboys make moves?

Graziano: The Cowboys would love to upgrade their run game and run defense, but as usual, they aren't expected to be big players in the outside free agent market. Dallas is right up against the cap and has extension decisions to make on several of its own players, including wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, quarterback Dak Prescott and defensive superstar Micah Parsons. I wouldn't get too excited about the idea of, say, Barkley or Henry ending up in Dallas, unless one of them sees his price drop down into the $5-6 million range (which I think is unlikely).

Dallas does have some interest in bringing back Pollard, with the hope that he'd be better with one more year between him and his 2022 season-ending injury and with some better run blocking in front of him.

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Who is under the radar?

Fowler: I outlined a few under-the-radar names I've heard leading up to free agency last week coming out of the combine, but here are a few more sneaky good free agents (not household names but players who could do better than expected to varying degrees):

• Safeties Alohi Gilman (scouts called him a pleasant surprise) and Micah Hyde (he can still make an impact at 33 years old)

• Guards Damien Lewis and John Simpson (good interior offensive line play will get you paid)

• Pass-rushers Denico Autry (the tape is still really good despite him being 34 years old), Jadeveon Clowney (he usually waits to sign but might go off the board faster after a 9.5-sack season) and Josh Uche (he has speed and is good on third down).

• Defensive tackles Grover Stewart, Sheldon Rankins, DJ Reader and Justin Jones (many teams are looking for run-stopping and explosion inside)

• Wide receiver Noah Brown (he can still run well, averaging 17.2 yards per catch in 2023)

• Offensive tackle Jermaine Eluemunor (it's a soft OT market, and he can play both tackle spots and is good in pass protection)

• Cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie (experienced and still just 28) and Darious Williams (4 INTs and 19 pass breakups in 2023)

• Slot cornerback Kenny Moore II (an Indy re-sign feels possible, though)

• Running backs D'Andre Swift (he's coming off a great season and is only 25) and Zack Moss (he's a good option for teams that don't want to spend for top RBs)