2024 NFL draft: Vikings trade-up offers for QBs, predictions

The Minnesota Vikings made an interesting trade two weeks ago when they acquired the No. 23 selection in the 2024 NFL draft from the Houston Texans. We don't often see trades for late Round 1 picks so far out from the draft, but there might have been a bigger plan at play: The Vikings now have two first-round picks this year, which gives them assets to move up to select a quarterback if and when the time comes.

That could be crucial in this class, as quarterbacks are projected to go 1-2-3 to kick off the draft. The fourth -- projected to be Michigan's J.J. McCarthy -- could go as early as No. 4 overall, and there's an outside chance a fifth signal-caller could sneak into the top 10. Minnesota lost Kirk Cousins in free agency earlier this month and owns the No. 11 pick, so a trade up might be necessary if general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah decides to address the position in the draft.

With all of that in mind, we took a closer look at the situation. Vikings reporter Kevin Seifert laid out how Minnesota got here, and draft analyst Jordan Reid stacked the QBs who might make sense in a potential trade. Then, national reporter Dan Graziano pitched potential trade packages to move up to each spot that could theoretically be in play -- Nos. 3-10. Finally, Seifert sized up what the Vikings are most likely to do, and our experts made predictions.

Why could the Vikings move up, and how did they get here?

Seifert: The Vikings are in this position because they don't have a long-term quarterback on their roster. They drew a hard line in negotiations with Cousins, refusing to commit to him as their starter for more than the 2024 season and instead signing journeyman Sam Darnold to a one-year deal. It was a defensible series of moves, as Cousins approaches his 36th birthday while recovering from the first major injury of his professional career (torn Achilles). But it also exposed the Vikings' lack of a transition plan.

Their draft spot at No. 11 is low enough that they would risk missing out on most -- if not all -- of the top quarterbacks in this class, and their trade to acquire the Texans' pick at No. 23 strongly suggests they hope to move up. Speaking to the team's flagship station KFAN-100.3 after the trade, Adofo-Mensah said "there's a preferred scenario" but insisted the team is not locked into finding its next quarterback in the 2024 draft.

"We just thought that that move gave us the best flexibility for whatever can happen," he said. "Ultimately team building isn't this one-size-fits-all exercise. There are ways you can build a championship team with certain types of quarterbacks, certain types of players around them and we're trying to set ourselves up to be one of those and ultimately be in that last game which we're trying to be in."

Which QBs could be available, and how would they fit in Minnesota?

Reid: With Caleb Williams (USC) expected to go No. 1 overall, Drake Maye (North Carolina), Jayden Daniels (LSU) and McCarthy (Michigan) are the three possible options for the Vikings. Maye is my QB2, though it's close between him and Daniels. Maye has tremendous upside with comps to Justin Herbert and Josh Allen. He might require a brief time sitting behind an experienced starter, but he has great arm strength and a 6-foot-4, 223-pound frame. He threw for 3,608 yards last season and showed some underrated rushing ability. If -- and it's a big if -- things click for Maye, he could become a top-eight QB in the NFL. He just needs to work on his lower-body mechanics.

Daniels, meanwhile, is extremely mobile and an exceptional deep-ball passer. He could see success quickly in the NFL after he totaled 50 touchdowns (40 passing, 10 rushing) last season en route to the Heisman Trophy. He has the arm strength and touch to get the ball accurately to all three levels of the field. His real superpower is his ability as a runner; Daniels can slice through defenses, rushing for 1,134 yards last season. Maye and Daniels should both come off the board in the first three picks.

Then there is McCarthy, who shouldn't go any later than No. 11. We know teams can win with him -- just look at the Wolverines' run to the national title -- but can teams win because of him? Michigan's offense was run-centric, and McCarthy was efficient in that system, completing 72.3% of his throws last season. He's mechanically sound and operates well outside of the pocket when things break down. But he is still inexperienced, and he might not be ready to play right away. If a team develops him correctly, he has the potential to be a top-12 or top-15 quarterback. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. and Oregon's Bo Nix would be the next two QBs available.

What would Minnesota have to offer to trade up?

Graziano: I mapped out potential packages that might work for Minnesota to move up to each slot from No. 3 (Patriots) to No. 10 (Jets). I didn't include Nos. 1-2 because Chicago and Washington are seemingly locked into staying put and taking quarterbacks there.

No. 3, New England Patriots: The Vikings send Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 first-round pick for No. 3.

This is pretty straightforward -- three first-round picks for your quarterback of the future, whoever that is at No. 3. The Patriots, meanwhile, would get serious draft capital to spark their rebuild. And they could still maneuver in Round 1 this year to find a QB (if they like one outside the top three) or plan to control the draft next year and maybe land the best one in that 2025 class.

No. 4, Arizona Cardinals: The Vikings send No. 23 and WR Justin Jefferson for No. 4.

I mean, I could just do all-picks offers all the whole way through, but what fun is that? If Minnesota is unable to secure an extension for Jefferson, the Vikings could send him to Arizona, draft their QB at No. 3 and still be in position to draft a receiver at No. 11. Minnesota could then pair that pass-catcher with 2023 first-rounder Jordan Addison to help the rookie QB right away. Arizona would still have two first-round picks this year and would now have a star WR1 for quarterback Kyler Murray, though it would have to give Jefferson a big extension afterward.

No. 5, Los Angeles Chargers: The Vikings send Nos. 11 and 23 for No. 5 -- then send No. 5 and a 2025 first-round pick to the Patriots for No. 3.

In this scenario, the Patriots wouldn't be fully in love with the QB who's there at the third slot but wouldn't want to move back too far and risk missing out on all of the QBs. This is the same price Minnesota paid in the Patriots scenario above, but the picks are dispersed differently. The Chargers can find the receiver they need at No. 11.

No. 6, New York Giants: The Vikings send Nos. 11 and 23 for No. 6 -- then send No. 6 and a 2025 first-round pick to the Patriots for No. 3.

Same scenario as above. The trick is making sure the Patriots are on board with the second part of the deal before Minnesota makes the move up to No. 6. Because if not, another team can still jump the Vikings to No. 4 or No. 5 and snag the Vikings' guy. Like the Chargers in the above scenario, the Giants could get a receiver at No. 11.

No. 7, Tennessee Titans: The Vikings send Nos. 11 and 23 for Nos. 7 and 106 (fourth round).

This is probably too late for the double-move-up scenario we outlined in the previous two offers, but if the QB the Vikings want is still there at No. 7, there's going to be enough competition for the pick (Raiders?) that they'd need to include both first-rounders for a four-spot jump. But Tennessee can send back one of its fourth-rounders to help even things out.

No. 8, Atlanta Falcons: The Vikings send Nos. 11 and 23 for Nos. 8 and 79 (third round).

This is a better deal for the Vikings than the one we proposed at No. 7, but of course, this assumes that the pick at No. 7 has already been made and Minnesota's QB is still on the board. Atlanta would send the Vikings the extra third-rounder it got from Jacksonville in the Calvin Ridley deal, and Minnesota would get to make a pick on Day 2 (it doesn't have any selections in Rounds 2 or 3).

No. 9, Chicago Bears: The Vikings send Nos. 11, 108 (fourth round), 129 (fourth round) and a 2025 third-round pick for Nos. 9 and 75 (third round).

Trading with a team in its own division means Minnesota would have to pay a little bit of a premium for a two-spot move. The Vikings don't have a second-round pick this year or in 2025, and they don't have any third-round picks this year, either. This move allows the Bears, who have only four picks in this entire draft, to slide back a couple of spots, get a guy they might have taken at No. 9 anyway and add a few Day 3 picks in the process -- while the Vikings get themselves back into Day 2.

No. 10, New York Jets: The Vikings send Nos. 11 and 129 (fourth round) for No. 10.

If the Vikings are moving up just one spot for a QB, that assumes there's competition for the pick. (Otherwise, why not just stay at No. 11, knowing the Jets won't be going QB?) But no competitor can offer a better 2024 first-rounder than Minnesota's at this point. Adding the second of their fourth-round picks as a sweetener should be able to get it done. The Jets would move back and take whomever they were going to take anyway, while adding a pick for their troubles.

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What makes the most sense for Minnesota?

Seifert: Adofo-Mensah said in February that trading Jefferson had not crossed his mind, and the acquisition of the Texans' pick would seem to alleviate any need to include Jefferson in any deal to move up.

It's expensive, but the offer that makes the most sense is the move up to the Patriots' spot at No. 3. If you believe the reporting that Williams and Daniels are going to be the top two picks, moving to No. 3 would give the Vikings a choice between Maye, McCarthy and perhaps even Nix. If the Vikings don't get to No. 3, then they're giving up premium picks for the fourth quarterback of the draft.

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What is your prediction for the Vikings' approach?

Graziano: The Vikings will package three first-rounders (including future years) and move up to No. 3. I could see Washington pulling a bit of a surprise in selecting Maye at No. 2, and the Vikings ending with Daniels to pair with Jefferson -- two LSU products -- in this offense for years to come.

Reid: I'm with you here, Dan. I'm watching for the Vikings to present the Patriots with an offer that they can't refuse -- No. 11, No. 23, a 2025 first-rounder and an added Day 3 pick this year to jump to No. 3 in order to select Maye or Daniels. With a bridge QB in Darnold already in place, the new QB wouldn't need to be rushed along, and Minnesota has a near-perfect surrounding setup for a rookie QB.

Seifert: I have the Vikings moving up to No. 4 and taking whoever is left between Daniels, Maye and McCarthy, each of whom would benefit from developing under O'Connell and sitting behind Darnold for part -- or even all -- of their rookie season.