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Round 1 of the 2024 NFL draft is roughly one month away. Draft boards are starting to firm up, team needs are becoming more clear and prospects are making their final on-field statements at pro days across the country. And along the way, intrigue around what every team is going to do on Day 1 is picking up. We've heard a lot of buzz about early picks, potential trades and the quarterback market. So we asked NFL draft analysts Matt Miller, Jordan Reid and Field Yates to break down the latest intel from around the league and dish on what they've heard on the road at pro days this month. Will Minnesota move up the board? Which first-round fits are too good to pass up? Could a sleeper team emerge in the QB hunt? We get into all that and then let Matt, Jordan and Field alternate picks in a mini-mock draft of the top 12 picks. Finally, our experts empty their scouting notebooks with what they're hearing, seeing and thinking as we near April. Jump to:
Vikings trade-up buzz | Round 1 prospect fits
Sleeper QB teams | Mini-mock of picks 1-12
Everything else we're hearing this week   What's the latest on the Vikings and a potential trade up in Round 1?
Yates: The Vikings' trade with the Texans for pick No. 23 last week after losing Kirk Cousins in free agency certainly raised some eyebrows, giving them a second Day 1 selection (No. 11 being the other). People around the league with whom I've spoken believe Minnesota basically sent up a flare to any team at the top of the order considering a trade down that it is interested in talking. Whether that manifests a deal is to be determined, but a team willing to move back has not only a possible partner but also the certainty of where two first-round picks (the starting point in any negotiation) are in the order. The Cardinals (No. 4) and Chargers (No. 5) are the two often-linked targets right now. Reid: Sending an offer to the Patriots for the No. 3 pick should certainly be the first plan of attack for Minnesota GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah, which would allow the Vikings to have a chance at LSU's Jayden Daniels, North Carolina's Drake Maye or Michigan's J.J. McCarthy. If the team can't pull that off, then the Chargers' pick at No. 5 feels like an obvious fit to make a swap. But the real beauty of that deal the Vikings made for No. 23 is that they now have options. Even if they can't secure a trade up the board, they suddenly have two first-rounders, bettering their chance to get a QB outside of the top options. Washington's Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon's Bo Nix could be an answer at No. 23 -- and potentially later if Minnesota wants to trade back from that spot. Miller: The Vikings sent neither Adofo-Mensah nor coach Kevin O'Connell to the Michigan pro day Friday, but quarterbacks coach Josh McCown was firmly planted right behind McCarthy during his 25-minute throwing session. In talking to NFL personnel while on the road at pro days this week, the feeling is still that the Vikings will be aggressive in trading up to the No. 4 or No. 5 spot to land the Michigan quarterback. One general manager I talked to this week said McCarthy is a top-six pick right now. The question is who will trade up to get him.
What's a team-prospect fit you love in Round 1 after free agency? Reid: Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold to the Raiders at No. 13. The interior defensive line was a major question mark for Las Vegas entering the offseason, but with free agent signing Christian Wilkins now anchoring the middle of that unit, finding cover corners for the defense should be a focus at the draft. The cornerback group lacks size and high-end talent, but Arnold checks both of those boxes and gives coach Antonio Pierce a true CB1. Arnold had five interceptions last season, and he has a versatile skill set that would allow him to play anywhere in the Raiders' secondary.  Miller: Oregon center Jackson Powers-Johnson to the Steelers at No. 20. After adding two quarterbacks -- Russell Wilson and Justin Fields -- over the past few weeks, the Steelers are cleared to address the offensive line in Round 1 for a second year in a row (tackle Broderick Jones at No. 14 in 2023). Powers-Johnson is a powerful people-mover in the middle of the line and would help keep the pocket protected for whichever passer is working under center. He has great agility and balance.  Yates: Alabama edge rusher Dallas Turner to the Falcons at No. 8. The Falcons' top two edge rushers from last season -- Bud Dupree (age 31) and Calais Campbell (age 37) -- are both free agents and unsigned, and the team has done nothing to replace them. Atlanta tied for 21st in sacks (42) and posted the league's worst pass rush win rate (30.9%) in 2023, and it needs more youth and talent off the edge. Turner would provide exactly that after a 10-sack season. He's sudden, long and explosive.
What is your favorite sleeper team to watch that could target a QB in the top two rounds?Miller: Las Vegas Raiders. This might even be a team to consider in the first round. Right now the Raiders' depth chart consists of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell. Minshew is a solid veteran and bridge option, and he should be the starter in 2024 after leading the Colts to a 7-6 record while replacing an injured Anthony Richardson. But if a quarterback slides to the Raiders at No. 13 or No. 44 overall, general manager Tom Telesco has to consider adding a future starter.  Reid: New Orleans Saints. A recent contract restructure means the Saints are locked into Derek Carr under center through the 2025 season. But with his recent injury concerns and underwhelming play, the Saints -- who were middle of the pack in most passing stats last season -- would still be wise to develop a backup plan in case things don't improve in 2024. New Orleans lost Jameis Winston to the Browns, too. New Orleans picks at No. 45 in Round 2.  Yates: Los Angeles Rams. While the Rams' quarterback room is fairly certain for 2024 with Matthew Stafford and Jimmy Garoppolo, the team also understands that questions about whether the 36-year-old Stafford will continue playing are going to pop up at the conclusion of every season going forward. With that in mind, finding a player for the pipeline should not be entirely dismissed. While premium picks matter, the Rams' ability to scout well in the mid-to-late rounds means they don't have to address immediate needs with every one of their picks. They can plan for the future at the most important position. Keep an eye on them at No. 52 in the second round.
Mini-mock of the week: Let's alternate picks in the top 12 1. Yates' pick for the Chicago Bears (via CAR): Caleb Williams, QB, USC. The Bears are taking a quarterback at first overall after trading away Fields, and Williams feels like the easy bet at this juncture.  2. Reid's pick for the Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU: Considering the QBs whom offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has had success with in the past, I like Daniels' dynamic ability as a downfield thrower and high-end dual threat in Washington.  3. Miller's pick for the New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina. I think the Patriots will explore a trade here, but kick-starting the rebuild with a quarterback is the smart play. They recently traded Mac Jones and currently have Jacoby Brissett as their top option.  4. Yates' pick for the Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State. The Cardinals have a glaring need at wide receiver, and Harrison is the No. 3 player on my board. Quarterback Kyler Murray would be very happy with this outcome.  5. Reid's pick for the Los Angeles Chargers: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU. With both Mike Williams (cut and signed by the Jets) and Keenan Allen (traded to the Bears) now gone, the Chargers are in desperate need of a talented pass-catcher. And Nabers is explosive.  6. Miller's pick for the New York Giants: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan. We're not making trades here, so this might play out differently. But this would be a dream scenario for the Giants, as McCarthy could even sit behind Daniel Jones for 2024 if he's not ready for immediate action.  7. Yates' pick for the Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame. The Titans recently released Andre Dillard, an expected move that creates an Alt-sized hole at left tackle. New offensive line coach Bill Callahan would get a high-upside player to work with and develop as protection for quarterback Will Levis. 8. Reid's pick for the Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama. With a fully loaded offense after the Cousins signing, attention should pivot to the defense. And that unit sorely lacks a pass-rusher like Turner, who can come in and be a day one starter off the edge. 9. Miller's pick for the Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington. The Bears could consider a left tackle here, but I like Braxton Jones on a rookie deal for two more seasons. Odunze would be the ultimate understudy to Allen and DJ Moore, giving Williams (our new Chicago QB in this scenario via the No. 1 pick) some elite targets.  10. Yates' pick for the New York Jets: Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia. With the signing of left tackle Tyron Smith and the trade for right tackle Morgan Moses, the board opens up for the Jets to address other positions of need. Bowers would pair with receiver Garrett Wilson to form an enviable 1-2 pass-catching duo. 11. Reid's pick for the Minnesota Vikings: Byron Murphy II, DT, Texas. The top four quarterbacks are gone, so let's look at other positions. Minnesota addressed the edge of the defense in free agency, but a large hole remains on the interior. Murphy would slot in right away as a game-changer for Brian Flores' defense.  12. Miller's pick for the Denver Broncos: Bo Nix, QB, Oregon. Is this too early for Nix? Based on rankings, yes. But the Broncos are desperate for a signal-caller, and Nix's accuracy and timing are a fit for Sean Payton's offense.
Let's empty the notebooks with everything else we're hearing and seeing this weekMiller's notes: Keep an eye on the stock of Georgia cornerback Kamari Lassiter over the next month. He opted not to run the 40-yard dash at the combine, putting all his chips on the Georgia pro day for a testing time. But scouts on hand in Athens for the March 13 pro day were disappointed to see Lassiter run a 4.65 during the workout. One scout told me, "It was kind of expected he would run a slow time ... but that's still a poor number." Another scout reflected that Lassiter might be out of the Round 1 discussion now. The 6-foot, 186-pound corner is ranked outside my top 50 players and could very well be looking at the back end of Round 2. I was at the Ohio State pro day on Wednesday, and defensive tackle Michael Hall Jr. put on yet another show after a great Senior Bowl appearance. Weighing in at 299 pounds after being 290 at the combine, Hall ran the 40-yard dash in the 4.75-4.78 range according to scouts at the workout. His positional drills were also impeccable, as he displayed great agility and flexibility on bag drills and the circle drill. Hall is my No. 75 overall player, but an adjustment is needed on my end. His first-step quickness and burst are worthy of a Round 2 grade. The Texas pro day on Wednesday was attended by 96 NFL personnel people, believed to be the most ever for a Texas pro day. The folks in attendance saw a great workout from wide receiver Xavier Worthy. I talked to an NFL evaluator who was at the workout and said Worthy "put on a show; he caught everything." A fringe first-rounder, Worthy has had a great pre-draft process, including his 4.21-second 40-yard dash at the combine and now a clean pro day workout.
Reid's notes: Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry came into his Alabama pro day with questions about his speed and the Jones fracture in his right foot discovered at the combine, but he aced his performance. He jumped 34.5 inches in the vertical and 10-foot-1 in the broad, and scouts had McKinstry timed in the 4.48-4.52 range for his 40-yard dash. An NFC area scout said to me, "Him going out there and competing despite the injury says a lot about his want-to and competitive desire to attack those question marks that were out there about him." I could see McKinstry being selected as high as No. 17 overall to the Jaguars, and it's hard to see him getting past the Eagles (No. 22), Packers (No. 26), Cardinals (No. 27) or Lions (No. 29) in Round 1. In talking to scouts, one name that keeps coming up as someone who could go earlier than expected is Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton. His pro day is set for March 28, and evaluators are looking forward to seeing him back in action after he missed out on the Senior Bowl and battled injuries last season. There are still mixed opinions about his best position at the next level, though. The No. 26 prospect on my board (and second-ranked center) is 6-foot-5 and 313 pounds, and there are some scouts who believe Barton can be a tackle in the pros. But even if Barton projects on the interior, there are a lot of teams looking for a starter at center; the Steelers (No. 20), Dolphins (No. 21) and Cowboys (No. 24) make a lot of sense here.
Yates' notes: The race for WR1 is closer than the public might realize. Mel Kiper and I discussed this on Monday's episode of the "First Draft" podcast, and I feel confident in saying Harrison and Nabers are viewed comparably leaguewide right now. Harrison's smooth route running, size and power are all off the charts, but Nabers' suddenness, explosion and after-the-catch skills have him right in the mix. And the reality is only one team will ultimately determine which wide receiver is the first taken. This tight end class isn't considered deep, as Bowers is the only certainty to be drafted in the first two rounds (he'll, of course, be a first-round pick). But here's a tight end who has helped himself a ton during the pre-draft process: Illinois' Tip Reiman. He ran a 4.64-second 40 at the combine at 6-foot-5 and 271 pounds. He had 19 catches this past season, so his 2023 receiving tape will not blow you away, but he was stellar at the East-West Shrine Bowl. My TE4 right now, Reiman is a talented blocker and has untapped receiving upside. LSU defensive tackle Maason Smith continues to pop up in conversations with people around the NFL, and he cracked my most recent top 50 update. Smith flashed potential as a true freshman in 2021, racking up 4.0 sacks in nine games, but was limited to just one drive in 2022 before suffering a major knee injury. He needed time this past season to work his way back into his old self, but his late-season tape is impressive, and his physical traits are outstanding. Smith is 6-foot-5 with 35-inch arms and nearly an 85-inch wingspan. In a class that has a lot of smaller defensive tackles near the top of the heap, Smith's frame stands out. I expect him to be taken in the second round. As pro day season marches along, one thing to keep in mind is that some prospects are unable to fully take part due to health considerations but are trying to work out at a later date closer to the draft. Both Iowa cornerback Cooper DeJean (leg) and Illinois defensive tackle Jer'Zhan Newton (foot) fall into that category, as each is planning for a workout at some point in April. And each has a chance to be a first-round pick.
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