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2024 NFL mock draft: Top-15 pick predictions off free agency

NFL Draft, NFL, College Football, Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, Arizona Cardinals, Los Angeles Chargers, New York Giants, Tennessee Titans, Atlanta Falcons, New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings, Las Vegas Raiders, Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, New Orleans Saints, USC Trojans, North Carolina Tar Heels, LSU Tigers, Michigan Wolverines, Ohio State Buckeyes

Editor's note: This mock draft originally posted on Thursday morning but has been updated off a flurry of additional moves.

Money has flown around the NFL this week, as a slew of free agency deals and big-name trades have impacted rosters around the league. And in turn, those moves -- and in some cases, non-moves -- have impacted how the 2024 NFL draft might unfold. In fact, the impact has been so large that I had to rework some of my original picks with a second version of this mock draft, accounting for the Thursday trade of Chargers receiver Keenan Allen to the Bears and the Friday draft pick deal between the Vikings and Texans.

So let's sort through the shifting team needs, prospect targets and potential strategies of franchises slated to pick in the top 15 of April's first round, basing our predictions off all the action we've seen. Keep in mind that plenty of free agent signings still lie ahead and the draft landscape could continue to change, further influencing pick projections.

But for now, here's a crack at how signings, trades, cuts and departures might have an impact on each team picking in Nos. 1-15 -- and the prospect that makes the most sense to fill roster holes. And a new addition: I now have a projected trade involving teams in the top 15. (I'll have a more complete updated mock draft in early April -- stay tuned.)

Jump to a projected trade

1. Chicago Bears (via CAR)

Caleb Williams, QB, USC

While Justin Fields has not yet been traded, it would seem logical that Chicago would accept a reasonable offer. The QB dominoes are still falling, but even if no offer bubbles up soon, I believe the Bears are taking a QB first overall and starting over under center. Fields was 20th or worse last season in QBR (46.1), yards per pass attempt (6.9) and TD passes (16).

It all leads the Bears to Williams, the presumptive No. 1 pick for some period of time now. Williams has an incredible skill set and would afford the Bears the chance to reset the financial clock at quarterback. He can extend plays and is very accurate, and he'd have playmakers at his disposal in DJ Moore, Cole Kmet and new additions Keenan Allen, D'Andre Swift and Gerald Everett. Williams threw 30 touchdown passes last season for the Trojans. (Update: The Bears traded Fields to the Steelers on Saturday, clearing the way for Williams in Chicago.)

  • See all of the Bears' free agency moves


2. Washington Commanders

Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU

No change from my February mock draft through two picks, as Daniels is the second-highest-rated player on my board and an incredibly dynamic playmaker. He had an amazing 40-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2023 at LSU and he'd have good support around him in D.C., as well. Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson are a formidable receiver duo, and Austin Ekeler will now be working out of the backfield with Brian Robinson Jr. Daniels would have a dramatic impact on the way coordinator Kliff Kingsbury can build his offense and would change the way teams must defend -- he's an elite dual-threat. Meanwhile, Washington traded away Sam Howell to Seattle, lost Jacoby Brissett to New England and only signed Marcus Mariota on only a one-year, $6 million deal (with incentives up to $10 million). The path is clear to draft a franchise QB for new coach Dan Quinn.

  • See all of the Commanders' free agency moves


3. New England Patriots

Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina

A trade of Mac Jones was expected, as the Patriots prepare to turn the page under center. He was benched multiple times last season and threw more interceptions (12) than touchdown passes (10). The Patriots have a runway in place for a young quarterback, and while Jacoby Brissett could definitely start Week 1 after signing a one-year deal with the Pats, I still think they have to go QB in the draft. Besides, Brissett's presence would allow the 21-year-old Maye to develop as needed. He has all the tools to be a star, even if he needs a bit of seasoning. There is no consolation prize among the three top quarterbacks in this class. They are all really good. And Maye has immense upside with his terrific arm, idyllic 6-foot-4 stature and dual-threat ability. He has 62 passing TDs and 16 rushing TDs over the past two seasons.

  • See all of the Patriots' free agency moves


4. Arizona Cardinals

Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State

I fully expect the phones to be ringing off the hook for GM Monti Ossenfort, with teams looking to move up for a quarterback, but Harrison is a perfect fit in Arizona. This Cardinals' roster has a clear and obvious need for a top wideout, and that's especially true now that Marquise Brown signed in Kansas City. The top WR on the roster at the moment is Michael Wilson, a 2023 third-rounder who had 565 yards last season. Harrison has 6-3 size, good speed, sure hands and a wide catch radius, and he'd be the immediate WR1 for Kyler Murray.

  • See all of the Cardinals' free agency moves


Projected trade: Vikings move up the board

The Vikings made a big move on Friday in acquiring pick No. 23 from the Texans. That might not seem like much of a talker on the surface and might even seem confusing -- the draft is still over a month away -- but the trade seems to be forecasting another potential move up in the draft. With quarterbacks coming off the board quickly, I have the Vikings sending pick Nos. 11 and 23, along with a 2025 first-rounder, to the Chargers for this No. 5 selection.


5. Minnesota Vikings (via LAC in a mock trade)

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

In moving to No. 5, the Vikings jump ahead of the Giants, another team some believe would consider a quarterback (picking at No. 6). Minnesota lost Kirk Cousins to the Falcons in free agency and signed Sam Darnold to a one-year deal this week. But while he is still just 26 years old, I do not view the signing of Darnold as prohibitive to drafting a quarterback. That deal just gives the Vikings insurance under center, and Minnesota really needs to reset at the position and find its long-term guy. McCarthy is widely viewed as the fourth-best QB in this class and was sixth in completion percentage last season at Michigan (72.3%). A new era for the Vikings arrives.

  • See all of the Vikings' free agency moves


6. New York Giants

Malik Nabers, WR, LSU

The most explosive player in the class fits perfectly with a team that was already short of playmakers before losing running back Saquon Barkley to the division-foe Eagles. Nabers averaged 17.6 yards per catch (10th among FBS receivers with at least 50 catches) and forced 27 missed tackles (sixth overall) last season; he can beat defenders with his vertical speed down the field or take a short throw and turn it into a massive gain in a hurry. The Giants have worked hard this offseason to fortify the offensive line, but a game-altering wideout is still very much needed.

  • See all of the Giants' free agency moves


7. Tennessee Titans

Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame

No need to overthink this one at all, as Alt is my highest-rated tackle in the class and is a hand-in-glove fit to become Tennessee's blindside protector for quarterback Will Levis. He has astonishing length and just recently turned 21 years old. His ceiling is high (literally, at 6-9, and figuratively). The Titans have beefed up the offensive line and wide receiver rooms this offseason by signing center Lloyd Cushenberry and receiver Calvin Ridley to four-year deals, but left tackle remains a priority add. Tennessee tied for the fourth-most sacks allowed last season at 64. (Update: The Titans released tackle Andre Dillard, further making the case that they will go OT here.)

  • See all of the Titans' free agency moves


8. Atlanta Falcons

Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama

After signing quarterback Kirk Cousins to a huge $180 million deal, the Falcons can now focus on their second-biggest need of the offseason: pass-rush juice. The Falcons did not have a single player record more than 6.5 sacks last season, and the two players who reached that number -- Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree -- are unsigned free agents. Turner had an incredible combine performance, solidifying that he's the most talented pass-rusher in this draft class. He had 10 sacks in 2023 and shows really impressive burst and power. He could help Atlanta big time; the Falcons had 42 sacks (tied for 21st) and a 30.9% pass rush win rate (32nd) last season.

  • See all of the Falcons' free agency moves


9. Chicago Bears

Rome Odunze, WR, Washington

I know, I know. The Bears just traded for Keenan Allen. But Bears fans should be downright giddy over this potential outcome, as a trio of DJ Moore, Allen and Odunze would be among the most feared in the NFL. And such a move would have quarterback Caleb Williams -- assuming he's the pick at No. 1 -- in a very cushy spot from jump street. Odunze is a fantastic route runner and comes down with everything thrown his way. His 1,640 receiving yards led the FBS last season.

  • See all of the Bears' free agency moves


10. New York Jets

Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State

The trade for Morgan Moses takes care of the right tackle spot, so the Jets can turn their attention to the other side of the O-line at the draft. It would seem natural for the Jets to explore a signing of David Bakhtiari once he is healthy, given his track record of high-level play and familiarity with quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but for now, left tackle is priority No. 1. The Jets took 64 sacks last season -- tied for fourth most -- and their QB is coming off a torn Achilles. Fashanu has the goods to be a starter for a long time in the NFL. I see really good power and quickness on tape from the 6-6 blocker. And drafting Fashanu would allow New York to keep Alijah Vera-Tucker inside at right guard, forming a solid unit overall. (Update: The Jets signed Tyron Smith, but given his durability concerns, I'm sticking with this pick.)

  • See all of the Jets' free agency moves


11. Los Angeles Chargers (via CHI in a mock trade)

JC Latham, OT, Alabama

Wide receiver is clearly a need for the Chargers after the team cut Mike Williams and traded away Keenan Allen with its back against the salary cap wall. But this pick aligns with the Chargers' mentality under new coach Jim Harbaugh. L.A. wants to establish a dominant, physical offense in the trenches. Latham would help accomplish that. He is the best run blocker in the draft, and at 6-6 and 342 pounds, he is extremely powerful. And there is excellent receiver depth in this class to address that pass-catcher hole later in the draft.

  • See all of the Chargers' free agency moves


12. Denver Broncos

Bo Nix, QB, Oregon

Quarterbacks are flying off the board in this scenario, and with Denver not scheduled to pick again until the third round, it must act decisively to add one now. The Broncos have not addressed the quarterback spot in any way this offseason -- they are currently slated to start Jarrett Stidham -- and Nix's blend of accuracy, processing speed and mobility makes him an intriguing option. He was incredibly efficient last season at Oregon, completing 77.4% of his throws and tossing 45 touchdown passes to three interceptions. It has been a transformative offseason for the franchise, with Denver releasing quarterback Russell Wilson and safety Justin Simmons and trading receiver Jerry Jeudy. Nix would help get things back on track.

  • See all of the Broncos' free agency moves


13. Las Vegas Raiders

Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State

The four-year megadeal for defensive tackle Christian Wilkins crossed off the team's biggest need, as the Raiders were desperate for interior defensive line help. So they can now pivot to the offensive line, where they lost 2023 starter Jermaine Eluemunor to the Giants. Fuaga is the epitome of toughness and power on the offensive line, and he would be a great fit in Las Vegas. He's a punisher in the run game.

  • See all of the Raiders' free agency moves


14. New Orleans Saints

Troy Fautanu, OT/G, Washington

The Saints have been quiet in free agency and guard Andrus Peat is now a free agent. New Orleans restructured longtime right tackle Ryan Ramczyk's deal, and he said in December he was uncertain of his NFL future. Furthermore, the team has to make a decision about 2022 first-rounder Trevor Penning, who has really struggled and might be due for a position switch to guard -- or at the very least have to compete for a starting left tackle gig. Considering all of that, Fautanu's value and versatility is too good to pass up. He was a college left tackle, and despite some talk of him projecting better inside at guard, I believe he has the goods to stay on the outside in the pros. No matter where he plays, he's just a flatout baller and would make an immediate impact blocking for quarterback Derek Carr.

  • See all of the Saints' free agency moves


15. Indianapolis Colts

Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama

Extending Michael Pittman Jr. means receiver isn't a massive hole that requires first-round attention, and it means Indy can pivot to its other big need. The Colts retained cornerback Kenny Moore II on a three-year deal, but he plays in the slot, so outside cornerback should probably be the target position here. Arnold offers high-end ball skills (five interceptions last season), instincts, toughness and physicality.

  • See all of the Colts' free agency moves

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