John Dorsey got a little more draft capital to work with on Sunday.
The Cleveland Browns are now all but certain to earn the No. 1 overall pick (99 percent chance) after they blew a 14-point lead against the Packers and the 49ers beat the Texans on Sunday.
But the 49ers' win helped the Browns in another way as well: Because Cleveland owns the Texans' first-round pick, that selection is now projected to be a better pick since Houston lost a very winnable game. Houston now has the sixth-best average draft slot, though it is worth noting that its average draft position is over seven. Still, more than before, the Browns are in position to have two premium picks.
Each week, the Football Power Index (FPI) projects the order of next year's draft by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model's ratings for individual teams in addition to game location.
In some cases, the projected draft order will not match the current draft order. That's because FPI is considering the probability of outcomes that haven't yet occurred and, crucially, projecting strength of schedule at the end of the season, since that is a tiebreaker for draft order.
Below is FPI's projected order for the 2018 draft, based on each team's average draft position in the simulations. While each team's current record is listed below, remember that the order is based on the record the model believes the teams will have after 16 games.
1. Cleveland Browns
Record: 0-13
Average draft position: 1.0
FPI chance to earn top pick: 99 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 100 percent
Well, they've (just about) done it. The Browns' No. 1 overall pick means that they will be set up to take the best quarterback available, which is exactly what everyone thinks they will do. Will that be Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen or Baker Mayfield? If only there were some time between now and the draft to talk about it.
2. New York Giants
Record: 2-11
Average draft position: 2.9
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 97 percent
The Giants starting Eli Manning again was a pretty timely reminder (for all those who forgot) that the team needs a new quarterback going forward. Of course, by playing Manning again the Giants are robbing themselves of getting a look at Davis Webb. If they don't play the former California quarterback, they might end up using a massive asset (this one) on a quarterback next spring before seeing if they have a decent quarterback on their roster already. It's a long shot to matter, but what is there to lose?
3. Indianapolis Colts
Record: 3-10
Average draft position: 3.2
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 92 percent
The poor Colts. A weak call on a two-point conversion in their game in a blizzard against the Bills cost them a victory and they ended up dropping their 10th game this season, this one in overtime. Actually, maybe they aren't so unlucky after all, considering they actually have three wins despite being the worst team in football, according to FPI. Regardless, they'll still have a top draft pick.
4. San Francisco 49ers
Record: 3-10
Average draft position: 4.1
FPI chance to earn top pick: <1 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 84 percent
The 49ers' draft stock is tumbling, and they won't mind one bit. They are 2-0 in the Jimmy Garoppolo era, and a few selections' difference (in addition to a second-round pick sent via trade and either a franchise tag or large contract to come) is a small price to pay for someone who could be a long-term answer at quarterback.
5. Denver Broncos
Record: 4-9
Average draft position: 6.6
FPI chance to earn top pick: 0 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 40 percent
Keep in mind here that while it appears the Broncos have actually moved from No. 6 to No. 5 from last week to this week despite winning, their average draft position has actually increased from 5.5 to 6.6. Beating up the Jets will do that to you.
6. Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans)
Record: 4-9
Average draft position: 7.1
FPI chance to earn top pick: 0 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 30 percent
We know what the old Browns regime would do here. With a quarterback snagged at the No. 1 spot in this hypothetical scenario, it would be safe to assume that Sashi Brown would have traded down. That's where the value is in the draft, and he stuck to that philosophy in his two drafts. What will Dorsey do? Tough to say, but he did trade a future first-rounder for Patrick Mahomes last year, so he's probably not as into trading down as Brown would have been.
What if Dorsey took Penn State's Saquon Barkley here? That would be another move the old regime probably wouldn't have gone for.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 4-9
Average draft position: 7.7
FPI chance to earn top pick: 0 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 23 percent
Maybe Florida State's Derwin James, who recently announced he'll skip the Seminoles' bowl game, could remain in the Sunshine State and play for the Bucs if he's still available here. The Bucs currently rank 29th in expected points added per play on pass defense.
8. Chicago Bears
Record: 4-9
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top pick: 0 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 15 percent
Beating the Bengals so handily both added a win to the Bears' record and improved their FPI rating, therefore increasing their projected wins over their final three games by a little bit too. The result? The Bears have moved from an average draft position of 5.5 to 8.0.
9. New York Jets
After the Jets' loss to the Broncos, ESPN's Rich Cimini pondered the question perhaps many fans are asking themselves now: Can the Jets still Suck for Sam? The answer: without a trade, probably not.
Record: 5-8
Average draft position: 8.0
FPI chance to earn top pick: 0 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 6 percent
10. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are probably hoping that this player turns out better than their last top-10 pick overall pick ... zero-catch rookie receiver John Ross.
Record: 5-8
Average draft position: 8.1
FPI chance to earn top pick: 0 percent
FPI chance to earn top-5 pick: 14 percent
11. Arizona Cardinals (6-7); average draft position: 11.4
12. Oakland Raiders (6-7); 12.6
13. Washington Redskins (5-8); 13.4
14. Miami Dolphins (6-7); 15.0
15. Buffalo Bills (7-6); 15.7
16. Dallas Cowboys (7-6); 16.4
17. Green Bay Packers (7-6); 17.6
18. Detroit Lions (7-6); 18.5
19. Los Angeles Chargers (7-6); 20.4
20. Tennessee Titans (8-5); 21.6
21. Buffalo Bills (via Kansas City Chiefs, 7-6); 21.9
22. Baltimore Ravens (7-6); 22.1
23. Atlanta Falcons (8-5); 22.3
24. Seattle Seahawks (8-5); 23.0
25. Carolina Panthers (9-4); 24.4
26. Los Angeles Rams (9-4); 24.4
27. Jacksonville Jaguars (9-4); 26.0
28. New Orleans Saints (9-4); 26.6
29. Minnesota Vikings (10-3); 29.0
30. New England Patriots (10-3); 29.5
31. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-2); 29.5
32. Philadelphia Eagles (11-2); 30.0