Andrew Bogut.
Those two words reverberate across the NBL landscape. Bogut is arguably the most important signing in the history of the NBL, a move that led to a tidal wave of good vibes for the league. From more NBA crossover games to expansion, new broadcast deals to new jerseys, the league subsisted on a diet of good publicity during the winter months, managing to stay relevant despite a long offseason.
But it's the Sydney Kings' signing of Bogut that resonates: the most accomplished NBA player ever to play in the competition's history. In landing an instant top five player (the order of that list largely varies upon one's stylistic preferences), the Kings vaulted into championship favouritism for most pundits, and ensured the NBL vaulted into news cycles and Twitter feeds, leveraging the former NBA star's magnetism.
In response, the reigning champions, Melbourne United, re-signed Casper Ware and Josh Boone, keeping intact a championship core for a shot at a title-repeat. And those perennially-contending Wildcats reloaded, snagging a pair of Hawks and securing reigning MVP Bryce Cotton for another three years in the prime of his career.
Elsewhere, Cairns had a big shakeup of their own, with the end of the Aaron Fearne era. The Hawks may have redefined "Bevo Ball", and the Bullets continue to confound with what they're building.
Adelaide 36ers made the news for all the wrong reasons with the Mitch Creek saga. And outside all of the noise, those New Zealand Breakers quietly built another contending roster.
With so much change over the offseason, here's an attempt to forecast how teams will fare, what the final standings will be at the end of the regular season, with rosters as currently constructed.
The usual caveats apply here: a lot can change over the course of the season, as imports come and go, and the injury bug strikes.
Brisbane Bullets
Key additions: Alonzo Gee, Cam Gliddon, Jason Cadee, Matt Hodgson, Mika Vukona
Key losses: Travis Trice, Daniel Kickert, Perrin Bufford, Shaun Bruce, Tom Jervis, Anthony Petrie
Holy moly. It's very much a matter of same-same with Brisbane yet again. The Bullets will trot out a plodding unit with a glaring lack of off-the-bounce creation, something that has doomed recent campaigns.
Trice shouldered much of the load last season, and that's probably too high a creative burden for their new starting backcourt of Gliddon and Cadee. Both provide plenty of shooting but neither moves the needle in terms of breaking down the opposition perimeter defence, triggering all sorts of rotations that lead to the best looks.
Without a single dynamic off-the-bounce creator, how will the Bullets score when Cam Bairstow flip shots don't go in? This current iteration will rely heavily upon Stephen Holt to generate late clock offence and unless he turns back the clock, things look grim for the Bullets.
Speaking of Bairstow, he might as well be a new recruit, having missed the entire 2017/18 season through injury. He'll be physical and a fulcrum on offence, though he'll need to up his passing numbers to unlock the shooters around him.
The culture-setting addition of Vukona is a good move and should add some steel to a defence that looks porous.
Alonzo Gee, their hulking wing with NBA experience, has looked off the pace in preseason. Billed as a defensive stopper, he's been a little leaden-footed - a general malaise in foot speed seemingly afflicting the entire roster.
Overall, I'm not entirely sure they've improved on the aggregate from last year in which they finished bottom of the table.
Prediction: 8th
Illawarra Hawks
Key additions: Cedric Jackson, Brian Conklin, Jordair Jett, David Andersen, Todd Blanchfield, Emmett Naar
Key losses: Rotnei Clarke, Demetrius Conger, Rhys Martin, Oscar Forman, Delvon Johnson
The Hawks added a pair of former MVPs in Jackson and Conklin and also the accomplished Andersen, yet reputation here may very well exceed output. Despite the acclaim, all have much to prove this season.
It's a theme that cuts across the roster: a gaggle of once-tantalising prospects who have now become reclamation projects. Blanchfield will look to re-establish himself after two inconsistent campaigns, while Jett and Jackson have much to prove, specifically the latter, after an inglorious exit from Melbourne United in the 2016/17 season.
The proverbial chip on the shoulder can galvanise a squad to greater individual and collective heights, and Rob Beveridge is a master motivator. If anyone can get the most out of this Frankenstein group, it's Bevo.
Still, A.J. Ogilvy will largely determine the fate of this team. The mercurial centre has always been amongst the most talented local players in the league, though injuries and inconsistency have curtailed his recent campaigns. Rebounding, long a sore spot for the Hawks, remains a weakness. Ogilvy represents the only big on the roster who is a plus rebounder and rim protector.
Roster construction suggests one thing though: this team will play a more smash-mouth style of basketball on offence, with more pressure at the rim, and a departure from the "Bevo Ball" we've seen in recent years. The ingredients are there for a feisty campaign - spurned veterans and some young guys looking to make their mark - and Beveridge will have them playing hard. They will be fearless.
Conklin and Jett will put up numbers on certain nights, and Emmett Naar could be Rookie of the Year. Still, it's hard to see a path to the postseason.
Prediction: 7th
Cairns Taipans
Key additions: D.J. Newbill, Melo Trimble, Devon Hall, Rob Loe, Jarrod Kenny, Lucas Walker
Key losses: Cam Gliddon, Mitch McCarron, Scoochie Smith, Nnanna Egwu, Stephen Weigh
New beginnings. The Aaron Fearne era ended over the offseason; they say change is as good as a holiday. That change included losing their entire perimeter rotation from a year ago. The Snakes represent the biggest unknown of the league.
They have a rookie head coach in Mike Kelly, who brings a less systematic approach, and took an intriguing route with their imports - all of them are perimeter players. Regardless, it's an impressive trio of import shot-makers, led by one of the league's best two-way players in Newbill.
Newbill will be flanked by new point guard, Trimble, who is a major upgrade over Scoochie Smith. Trimble has already shown himself to be a consistent threat from deep during the preseason, with the ability to finish through contact in the lane, as well as make heady reads after the defence has collapsed.
As for their third import, Hall is a smooth lefty with a gorgeous outside stroke. Both Trimble and Hall will be inconsistent -- they're young -- but it'll be fun to watch.
Ultimately, the Taipans' lack of depth looms large in missing the postseason. Mike Kelly will need to stagger the minutes of his imports to ensure one is on the court at all times.
They'll be plucky, and if Nate Jawai can stay healthy -- and that's a big if -- you never know. With Jawai surrounded by an array of shooters, they'll be fun to watch but also frustratingly inconsistent.
Prediction: 6th
Adelaide 36ers
Key additions: Jacob Wiley, Adris De Leon, Jack McVeigh, Harry Froling
Key losses: Mitch Creek, Josh Childress, Shannon Shorter, Matt Hodgson
The offseason hasn't been kind to last year's grand finalists. There were key losses in Creek, Childress and Shorter, all integral components of a super fun team last year. The Creek saga was also a black-eye for the club; a self-inflicted wound that cost them the chance to re-sign him if, and when, he returns to the league.
More than that, Creek was the lifeblood of the 36ers on the court. His positional versatility and aggressive approach keyed the team.
Re-signing Ramone Moore was a plus - he is a crucial cog in their system, and truthfully, the best fit team-wise for him in the NBL. Daniel Johnson and Nathan Sobey will continue to keep the 36ers offence humming. They will play the same way, flying down the court, aggressive straight line drives to the rim that succeed because that's what they do. They will just bully you.
Wiley is good. He's not a direct Creek replacement but a more traditional power forward with pogo stick verticality who gobbles rebounds. An elite rebounder, versatile defender, and with high motor, he could very well challenge both Josh Boone and Andrew Bogut in leading the league in rebounds. On offense, Wiley will fly down the court in transition; he'll hunt bodies in the half court for pick and pops.
The 36ers will need Majok Deng and Anthony Drmic to really pop as the bench - a strength of last year - is thin. Drmic is already a heady player and better defender than people realise, whilst Deng's size and shot-making will key the second unit.
Still, with Johnson, Sobey and Wiley on board, they should be fighting for a postseason spot.
Prediction: 5th
Sydney Kings
Key additions: Andrew Bogut, David Wear, Daniel Kickert, Kyle Adnam, Tom Wilson, Deng Deng, Brian Bowen
Key losses: Perry Ellis, Tom Garlepp, Jason Cadee, Todd Blanchfield, Isaac Humphries
Bogut alone strengthens the Kings' biggest weaknesses during the Gaze era: defensive acumen and rebounding. His passing and creativity in the high post, along with his offensive rebounding, will add another dimension to a Kings offence that was heavily reliant upon Jerome Randle midrange jumpers. Bogut is instantly the most impactful big in the NBL; he's that good in this league.
Expect a bounce-back season from Brad Newley, energised from the arrival of Bogut. Newley, who looked worn out last season, should enjoy a more productive year with less expectations, and without having to do the heavy lifting.
Of course, the overall expectations of the Kings will be huge, dwarfing those of 2016 when Kevin Lisch and Newley were new recruits destined to return greatness to the Harbour City. Andrew Gaze was still a fresh-faced coach, not the prowling, scowling dude stalking the sideline.
The Kings have often looked miserable over the past two seasons, as if they did not enjoy their workplace. With expectations sky-high this season, how will they handle that pressure? Bogut alone can only plug so many holes. During the preseason, with Bogut off the court, the Kings have looked uh ... like the Kings of yore: powerless on the glass, and a procession of quick shots on offence, exhibiting a general cluelessness.
A lot has been made of the Kings' talent - and its historical context - but there's more question marks than known quantities.
Kevin Lisch has not looked like a top 10 player for a while now, and his preseason form has not been encouraging. The Kings' bench is unproven; apart from Adnam, there's no proven quantity (unless Daniel Kickert starts as a reserve), although Bowen and Wilson have impressed in the preseason.
They will rely heavily upon Kickert for outside shooting, particularly if Wear continues to struggle. Overall, Sydney have looked ragged in preseason, but that's to be expected as the machinations of chemistry take effect and players subjugate their role for the greater good.
I'm just not convinced that all the pieces actually work.
Culture, a term often bandied around, takes years to cultivate. Players need to stay together, marinate and become a single connective tissue. The Kings have spent the past 24 months flailing in that regard, applying short term solutions that never worked.
There aren't any shortcuts to success in the NBL -- as good as Bogut is -- and they might not get to that championship level most believe is this team's destiny. Still, they should have enough to eke out a playoff berth.
Prediction: 4th
Perth Wildcats
Key additions: Nick Kay, Terrico White, Mitch Norton, Tom Jervis
Key losses: J.P. Tokoto, Jarrod Kenny, Derek Cooke Jr, Lucas Walker, Matt Knight
Speaking of culture, the biggest move the Wildcats made in the offseason was re-signing the reigning league MVP, Bryce Cotton, for three years. The fact Cotton, squarely in his prime, committed to the Wildcats is a testament to the club.
The Wildcats also snagged former Hawks in Norton and Kay - able replacements for Knight (retired) and Kenny (Cairns) - but the real question is whether they adequately addressed their need in scoring and outside shooting.
White carries that hope - a second banana, of sorts, to flank the effervescent Cotton. Will he fit better within the Wildcats ecosystem than Tokoto?
White has shown in the preseason that he's a far better shooter than Tokoto, and more attentive on the defensive end. He also won't demand the ball as much, sabotaging offensive possessions in the process of hunting shots. In that sense, he's a better fit, but the Wildcats need him to be more than a pull-up jump shooter. Can he get to the rim consistently? Can he create for others?
Last year, the Wildcats cobbled together enough offence by committee (usually Wagstaff, Brandt and Tokoto) around Cotton, but it was an unsustainable approach. How far the Wildcats go this season may well hinge on the former Detroit Pistons draftee's ability to be that second creative force behind Cotton.
The rest of the roster works. Kay is a do-it-all type, an elite passing big man who will make everyone around him better. Norton is a pit-bull on defence, and Damian Martin's long-term successor. Angus Brandt and Jervis form a big frontline, although one that's foul-prone.
Look, the Wildcats will be good again. They're big, will press early in the shot clock and fortify the paint.
Success breeds expectations, and unfortunately for the Wildcats, the bar they've set themselves can be unfair. Is this roster currently good enough to compete for a title? I'm not sure, but they should comfortably keep their record postseason run intact.
Prediction: 3rd
New Zealand Breakers
Key additions: Tai Wesley, Armani Moore, Jarrad Weeks, Shawn Long, Patrick Richard, Majok Majok
Key losses: Edgar Sosa, D.J. Newbill, Kirk Penney, Alex Pledger, Rakeem Christmas, Rob Loe
These guys will be good. Really good.
The offseason saw a loss of corporate knowledge in the departures of Mika Vukona, Pledger and the retirement of Penney. They also lost their head coach in Paul Henare. Yet the Breakers, building under new ownership, have assembled a deep and versatile roster, loaded with playmakers. It could be the most complete in the league.
Corey Webster and Tai Wesley return to the program. Webster -- with a Patty Mills-like green light -- returns to scorch nets (no one will snake back more on the pick-and-roll to hunt a jumper). Wesley was a key piece in United's championship season and returns to bring a refined post game to the team's offensive arsenal.
Moore intrigues, as a Draymond Green-type Swiss Army knife. He's hard-nosed, has a high basketball IQ and motor, and excels on the defensive end with his activity.
Their other two imports have also impressed. Long is long, athletic, and should have a Josh Boone-like impact. Richard looks to be a capable backup to Webster, with the ability to shoot and create, and defend at a high level.
The only real question mark lies at point guard, where time will be split between Shea Ili and Weeks. Both have thus far been change-of-pace sparkplugs off the bench at this level. Ili is slated to start and how he handles being the floor general in a loaded team - initiating the offence, managing the game, spacing the floor - will be an interesting subplot.
Prediction: 2nd
Melbourne United
Key additions: D.J. Kennedy, Mitch McCarron, Alex Pledger, Dan Trist
Key losses: Casey Prather, Tai Wesley, Majok Majok, Kyle Adnam, David Andersen
The champs kept their core intact for another title run. Ware, Goulding and Boone represent the tent-poles to build around, and United have done a masterful job of filling the rest of the canvas with complementary pieces.
McCarron is a borderline top 10 player, if not there already. He's versatile, can bully guards, can defend some small forwards, and has perhaps surpassed Damian Martin as the best offensive rebounding guard in the league. He will be a valuable utility for United.
The loss of Wesley is a blow, but United are hoping that a rotating cast of the ageless David Barlow, Dan Trist and D.J. Kennedy can fill the void. Trist is a Cam Bairstow clone, of sorts. He won't have the same usage as the real Bairstow, but his physicality and ability to score inside give United another option off the bench.
Pledger adds big man depth and combines with Boone as the best centre pairing in the league. They also have the best backcourt (with apologies to Lisch and Randle) - Ware and Goulding just fit seamlessly.
The addition of Kennedy solidifies United as the title favourites. He's shown himself to be an excellent rebounder, with the ability to initiate early offence and bulldoze into the lane hunting fouls. At this point, Kennedy represents a luxury for United - a swing piece with an all-around skillset for Dean Vickerman to deploy according to matchups.
Prediction: 1st