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BOSTON -- The day after Gordon Hayward fractured his ankle during the Boston Celtics' season opener in Cleveland, FiveThirtyEight ran an adjusted season simulation that projected 36.6 wins for the Hayward-less Celtics. While jarringly low, it probably shouldn't have been all that surprising. The Celtics had just lost one of their most versatile stars and were moving forward with a roster on which seven of the 15 available bodies were rookies. FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projection wasn't very bullish on the new-look Celtics before losing Hayward, and his absence trimmed 10 wins from the initial forecast. Less than four months into the 2017-18 season, the Celtics eclipsed that 36.6-win projection during a triumph over the New York Knicks last week -- a game they played without both Hayward and Kyrie Irving. The Celtics, their East-leading 39-15 record in tow, visit the Toronto Raptors on Tuesday night in a matchup that might help determine who ultimately emerges with the conference's No. 1 seed. The Celtics won the first of four meetings against Toronto in November, and the teams will play twice more over the final two weeks of the regular season. "They're playing extremely well," Celtics center Al Horford said of the Raptors. "We'll have our hands full, and for us, it's gonna be one of those games where we have to be very disciplined defensively, because [DeMar] DeRozan makes you pay. Kyle Lowry has that ability as well. "So you just have to be locked in defensively, and that will give us our best chance to try to go in there and win the game." FiveThirtyEight currently projects Boston at 56 total wins but finishing one game behind the Raptors. ESPN's Basketball Power Index is practically in lockstep, forecasting Toronto at 57.2 wins and Boston at 56.6. Toronto's gaudy offensive production gives the Raptors a slight edge in projected wins despite the Celtics' league-best defensive efficiency.  The mere suggestion of playoff seeding was met with horrified glances in the Celtics' locker room recently. Rookies, their heads spinning in elevated roles as the team tried to stay above water amid a rash of injuries, are simply trying to make sure they are in the right spot for the next play. Still, it's remarkable that two-thirds of the way through the season, the Celtics find themselves with a staggering 99.4 percent chance at one of the East's top two seeds, according to BPI projections. With a 7.5-game lead over the third-place Cavaliers, the Celtics would need the wheels to fall off to dip that far. Given that it was Brad Stevens who huddled the team in the aftermath of Hayward's injury and an 0-2 start and pleaded with his players to simply focus on the next possession, his players have no plans to start looking too far ahead. "I'm just being present, man," Irving said. "Every single [day is an] opportunity to go out there and play the game that I love. Obviously, us losing a very, very intricate part of our team [in Hayward] was hard. But also, on the flip side, it gave opportunities to a lot of our young guys that I don't think they expected. I don't think I necessarily expected it ... but I know that we were preparing for anything and whatever was going to happen. "I think we've done a great job of just weathering that storm. Of just, whoever's available, being ready to play and being ready to have the same consistency whether you're a starter or whether you're the 12th guy coming off the bench." Irving has missed Boston's past three games with a quad bruise suffered last week in Denver but is expected back Tuesday night in Toronto. The Celtics could get a further boost if Marcus Morris -- the pain in his backside from a hard fall last week likely lessened by his beloved Philadelphia Eagles' Super Bowl victory -- is able to return as well. Marcus Smart and his lacerated hand should be back after the All-Star break, while at least one reinforcement will soon arrive when the Celtics finalize the signing of free-agent big man Greg Monroe. The Celtics hit a critical juncture during their West Coast trip last week. After losing a season-worst four straight games, Smart put his hand through a glass picture frame at the team's Beverly Hills hotel. Boston, laboring through its worst offensive month of the season, was staring at a daunting slate to close out the trip, including a visit to the defending champion Golden State Warriors. But Boston has won five of its past six games, and Stevens noted that the only loss in that span -- a narrow defeat in a tantalizing showdown of conference leaders against Golden State -- might have been the best game Boston has played all season. The question that looms maybe larger than seeding: Is Boston a legitimate contender to emerge in the East? For all their surprising success, could the Celtics truly prevail in a seven-game series against the likes of the offensively stout Raptors or a Cleveland team that should eventually be able to shrug off their usual regular-season drama? If Boston's approach to this week's trade deadline is any indication, the Celtics are certainly acting like a team with plans to compete for a conference crown. The Celtics have held off on formally signing Monroe, to afford themselves increased flexibility to explore other deadline moves. Even when at full strength, Boston has had a need for more bench scoring. And, while Monroe could aid that cause, the Celtics certainly wouldn't mind finding a wing scorer who could add to the bench output.  The recent emergence of Terry Rozier, combined with Smart's looming restricted-free-agent status, will lead to speculation about the glass-punching guard's future. For all of Smart's warts, Boston should remember that every great title team tends to have an X factor like Smart who often makes key plays in big moments. So even if the deadline passes without further activity, the Celtics seem well-positioned to be competitive in the postseason. The way that rookies such as Semi Ojeleye and Daniel Theis have grown in elevated opportunities -- and the consistency that top 2017 pick Jayson Tatum has displayed since enduring a mini January funk -- is an encouraging sign that these players will be ready for the postseason stage. The Celtics will not, however, sacrifice their long-range view for short-term success. Yes, Boston returning to the East finals this year would benefit the team's youngest players as it instills a winning culture, but the franchise won't splurge unnecessarily or make a shortsighted move. Does the No. 1 seed matter? That question might depend on where Cleveland lands in the standings. Despite the constant soap opera in northeast Ohio, no one is going to want to see LeBron James on the opposite side of the court any earlier than the East finals (even if BPI suggests a team like, say, the Wizards are a tougher draw right now for Boston than the Cavaliers). Just don't expect Boston players to get that far ahead. The focus remains on the next day, the next game, the next play. Seeding and the playoff path will take care of itself. The Raptors just happen to be up next. "Brad always says stay the course, never get too high or too low," Rozier said. "He's the ultimate leader of this team, and how we play is a reflection of him. Toronto is right behind us, and it will be a hard-fought game."
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