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This week, we explore whether, somehow, this could be Joel Embiid's year, an unheralded aspect of Anthony Davis' offense, a lineup tweak the might have doomed the Rockets' late-season push and the absolute sweetest steals in the NBA. Jump to Lowe's Things:
How Embiid shifts the East | Where AD is underrated
OKC diversifying just in time | What cost the Rockets
Something nice in Portland | Artful patience from Bogie
Hey, Celtics and Bucks: Feed the bigs!| The coolest NBA steals |
Charlotte's defense ... oof  1. Can this, improbably, be Joel Embiid's moment?It's a little forgiving to label Embiid the most star-crossed superstar in recent NBA history, but only a little. He is not blameless in the Philadelphia 76ers' near decade of early postseason heartbreak. He has underperformed his regular-season numbers by even more than you'd expect given the quality of opposition. He has had stinkers in the highest-leverage moments: a 15-point borderline no-show in Game 7 against the Boston Celtics last season; 20 points on 7-of-24 shooting as the Sixers folded in Game 6 against the Miami Heat the year before; 16 total turnovers in Game 6 and 7 losses against the Atlanta Hawks in 2021. Ten years after the Sixers selected him at No. 3, we have yet to see the signature Embiid playoff run. But he has suffered so many ill-timed injuries to so many body parts. Superstar teammates have let him down and then bolted. The organization around him has committed salacious acts of self-sabotage. Through it all, Embiid developed into an MVP and one of the most dominant scorers ever -- a majestic figure, lording over the game from the elbows. And just when it seemed his tormented franchise had achieved stability -- with Tyrese Maxey as the contented, reliable co-star Ben Simmons, Markelle Fultz and James Harden could not and would not be -- Embiid suffered another knee injury. The Sixers fell from near the top of the East to No. 8 -- play-in hell. Embiid's return date was uncertain. It appeared to be a wasted season as Embiid turned 30. How many more wasted seasons until it would be too late? But Embiid returned Tuesday and looked good in helping Philadelphia to a critical win over the Oklahoma City Thunder without Maxey. The Brooklyn Nets did Philly a favor the next night, upsetting the No. 6 Indiana Pacers. On Thursday, Embiid and Maxey combined for 76 points in Philly's win over the No. 7 Heat and the superstar that got away -- Jimmy Butler. The win evened their season series at 2-2, although Miami still holds the tiebreaker for now. (The Pacers also have the tiebreaker over Philly.) Suddenly, the Sixers are a half-game behind Miami and one game behind Indiana for the No. 6. The Sixers' remaining schedule is mostly a breeze. That No. 6 seed might be the most pivotal prize amid all the mini races across the standings. It would pit Philadelphia against a vulnerable favorite and slot it opposite Boston. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 11-15 in their past 26 games, searching for the pace and fight that powered their midseason hot streak -- and relearning double-big alignments with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen. Donovan Mitchell is recovering from injury. Julius Randle's season-ending shoulder injury is a crushing blow for the New York Knicks. The healthy Knicks -- with Randle, OG Anunoby and their revamped bench -- rivaled the Milwaukee Bucks as the most dangerous threat to Boston. If Anunoby returns from an elbow injury and the brackets break the right way, the Knicks still have some chance of making the conference finals. They have outscored opponents by 10 points per 100 possessions when Jalen Brunson plays without Randle -- and a monstrous 32 points per 100 possessions in about 160 minutes with Brunson and Anunoby on the floor and Randle resting, per Cleaning The Glass data. With Brunson controlling the ball, Anunoby's 3-and-D skill set might be more valuable to these Knicks than Randle's shoulder-checking one-on-one game. Randle has shot a ghastly 34% in 15 career playoff games. But against the best defenses, you need as many shot creators as possible. Without Randle, New York's ceiling is lower. The Orlando Magic are a fierce defensive team, but they rank 23rd in points per possession and have very little postseason experience. They could win some first-round matchups -- their defense is that stingy, their spirit that strong -- but the Sixers would not fear them. Even if the Sixers remain No. 7 or No. 8, a win in their play-in opener would keep them out of the Celtics' side of the bracket -- and likely set them up against the Bucks. Don't overreact to Milwaukee's losses this week to the hapless Washington Wizards and Memphis Grizzlies. Damian Lillard missed both games; Khris Middleton missed one. The Bucks are plus-15.8 points per 100 possessions with Giannis Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Lillard and Brook Lopez on the floor. They are the East's biggest threat to Boston. They would be favored over the Sixers. It's unclear whether Philly will ever again have the starting five that tore the league apart for all of 14 games: Maxey, Embiid, Designated Entry Passer Nicolas Batum, De'Anthony Melton and Tobias Harris. Melton has barely played since Dec. 30 because of back issues. With Embiid's status murky and their cap sheet clean, the Sixers mostly kept their powder dry at the trade deadline. They did add Kyle Lowry and Buddy Hield -- a shooter who should thrive orbiting Embiid. (The Hield-Maxey backcourt would require a lot of support on defense.) Kelly Oubre Jr. has caught fire. Paul Reed is a solid backup to Embiid. There is a pathway for Philly to salvage this season. Going forward, it is armed with max-level cap space. The Sixers would leap at the chance to use it on Paul George, sources said. George has yet to sign an extension with the LA Clippers and could become an unrestricted free agent in July if he forgoes that extension.
Ah, the promise of a remade roster. Embiid has seen so many makeovers. He could have waited for another one, choosing to rest his knee instead of returning into the thick of a playoff race. But he deemed himself ready and decided to go for it. You don't have infinite chances. Sometimes, you just have to play -- and hope that in some magical year, luck and health break your way. That is a long shot this season. Boston is dominant, and Philly is battling from behind. But you can't blame Embiid for trying -- for hoping that maybe this is that year.
2. Anthony Davis' short roll passingDavis has always been an underrated passer, and that part of his game has sung since the Los Angeles Lakers finally started their most potent lineup: LeBron James, Davis, D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and the scorching Rui Hachimura. Plop Davis in the middle of all that shooting and he makes the right reads in a snap: Davis anticipates that cut before James even passes him the ball. He has the floor mapped. Davis cycles through his options like an NFL quarterback -- shooters on each wing, Reaves in motion -- and holds the defense in purgatory until the best option materializes. Davis is averaging 3.5 assists, second highest of his career, and is a strong figure for a big playing alongside James, Russell and Reaves. (The Lakers need more consistency from their bench. Maybe Gabe Vincent will help.) Most defenses won't pressure those ball handlers as aggressively as the New Orleans Pelicans do in those clips; they almost double James, catapulting Davis into 4-on-3s. Sit back and Davis catches with his defender planted in front him -- and no 4-on-3. But that strategy also gives James a runway and risks some open pull-up 3s. That trade-off is probably worth it given the Lakers' so-so shooting, but they have been hot for months and have other counters in the bag. This is a steely team. The Lakers are No. 2 in points per possession since coach Darvin Ham moved Hachimura into the starting five. They are only one game back of the Sacramento Kings for the No. 8 spot, although the Kings hold the tiebreaker. Getting there would put the No. 7 seed in play and give the Lakers two cracks to win one play-in game. The first four spots on first-team All-NBA should be almost unanimous: Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic, Giannis Antetokounmpo. With Kawhi Leonard banged up and the Clippers fading, is the fifth spot down to Davis and Jayson Tatum -- with Kevin Durant just behind them?
3. The Oklahoma City Thunder, diversifying things for two swing startersIt will be fascinating watching the Thunder's offense -- No. 4 overall -- under postseason stress. Defenses will throw everything at Gilgeous-Alexander. They will have scouted all Oklahoma City's pet actions -- all the unconventional guard-guard pick-and-rolls. Even now, every Thunder game pivots around how defenses guard Josh Giddey and Chet Holmgren. Most teams invert assignments, slotting their centers onto Giddey and shifting wings onto Holmgren. Those centers ignore Giddey, daring him to shoot 3s. The hope is to vaporize Giddey's drives, since he effectively has no one to beat off the dribble; he's plowing into walls. The tactic also clogs the lane with an extra defender. Sticking wings on Holmgren is meant to limit his pick-and-pop game with Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams. Most wings are fast enough to contain Oklahoma City's ball handlers and scamper back to Holmgren before he can launch clean 3s. In a pinch, they can switch. Teams that play two traditional bigs often place their second big man on Luguentz Dort. The intended effect is to increase the burden on Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams to create everything -- exposing the Thunder's supposed shallowness in off-the-dribble pop. It hasn't worked -- yet. The Thunder have had months to problem-solve, and they are still discovering workarounds. The simplest is Giddey finally rolling. Over his past 15 games, Giddey is averaging 16.5 points on 58% shooting, including 40% on 3s. There were games when it appeared the "let him shoot" strategy was unnerving Giddey. To his credit, Giddey mostly kept launching -- living with the bricks and the ridicule, hoping the reps would pay off. He's shooting with confidence now, and he's using the open space as a runway for floaters. If help defenders even glance at Giddey, he's slinging dimes to cutters. The Thunder can have Giddey set ball screens for Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander. If Giddey's defenders are loitering in the lane, there will be no one on the other side of those picks to contain the Thunder stars. They have also gotten traction with this decoy step-up action: Giddey pitches to Holmgren and gets out of the way; the real play appears to be that Williams-Holmgren pick-and-roll. Giddey hovers on the right wing. Williams kicks the ball there, and boom -- Aaron Wiggins sprints up to nail Giddey's defender near the foul line -- too low for defenders to safely duck the pick. Giddey has momentum knifing into the paint. The Thunder counter these gambits by leaning into the breadth of Holmgren's skill set. You want to stick smaller forwards on Holmgren? Eat this cross-screen-into-a-post-up: How about defanging both tactics at once by running an inverted Holmgren-Giddey pick-and-roll? Go under that pick and Holmgren pulls from 3. Drop back and you concede a driving lane. Switch and Holmgren draws your center. He can either blow by that sucker or pivot in a handoff with Gilgeous-Alexander, engineering the very pick-and-roll -- Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren against your center -- your defense was set up to avoid. Things will get harder in the playoffs. Giddey and Dort (and Cason Wallace) will have to create late in the clock here and there. The Thunder need Gordon Hayward to look at the rim. Coach Mark Daigneault will have to feel out the backup center spot. Reducing Giddey's minutes or even benching him looms as a painful adjustment. But this is a resourceful group -- full of smart decision-makers who stay calm under defensive pressure. The Thunder thrive in hothouse moments -- the floor in flux, the ball moving, the defense flying in rotation. The game screams, but the Thunder hold steady.
4. A rotation trough that cost the Houston RocketsEven before losing to the Golden State Warriors on Thursday, Houston's dreams of roaring back for the No. 10 seed were likely dead. The Rockets at least made Golden State earn it. The season is a rousing success for Houston anyway. The team bought into coach Ime Udoka's defense and tough-love minutes distribution. Alperen Sengun developed into a borderline All-Star. The Rockets' late-season push began with Sengun healthy; they missed him once the schedule stiffened. It took a while, but Jalen Green finally made his Year 3 leap. Cam Whitmore burst out as a marauding bench scorer. Amen Thompson vibrates with intensity and skill. One rotation wrinkle nagged even during that raucous win streak: Udoka resting Fred VanVleet and Green at the same time, turning the offense over to Whitmore, Thompson and Aaron Holiday. Without Sengun, those lineups had no tentpole identity. They struggled to score all season. They weren't a heavy-minutes fixture, but they hurt on the margins. In a Houston loss Tuesday, the Minnesota Timberwolves outscored the Rockets by five in one two-minute stint with Green and VanVleet on the bench. Perhaps Udoka didn't think Green was quite ready to helm every possession VanVleet sat. Maybe he wanted to stretch his other young guys. Ultimately, it's a nitpick. The Rockets are coming.
5. Jabari Walker, carving out a place in the NBAAnd now we pause to say something nice about a bad team we will wipe from our memories: Walker is fun and has earned a rotation role. Walker is a hustle player with more feel and skill than the "hustle player" caricature. He can attack closeouts with a bruising, spinning off-the-bounce game: (Walker drew a foul there.) Smart teams give Walker more space and wall off his drives; Walker has hit just 28% on 3s and sometimes hesitates to shoot. That is his swing skill. If Walker hits enough open 3s, he could grow into a viable backup power forward with some switchability on defense. If this is where his jumper tops out, he'll struggle to find extended run on good teams. He's a decent passer and can orchestrate the occasional pick-and-roll: Pair him with a stretch center -- Duop Reath -- and Walker morphs into the rim-runner. Walker is a voracious rebounder and can handle well enough to rake-and-take in the open floor. The Blazers selected Walker 57th in the 2022 draft and signed him to a three-year, $4.8 million deal -- with the last year not guaranteed. Walker is only 21. He might become a nice success story.
6. The artful patience of Bogdan Bogdanovic off the bounce -- and, hey, the Atlanta Hawks got interesting!Ironically, it might take this stint starting in place of Trae Young for Bogdanovic to finally get his due in the Sixth Man of the Year conversation. Most of that discussion has focused on Malik Monk, Norman Powell and Naz Reid. That would be a plausible top three in any order. Bobby Portis has butted into the conversation again. I had Monk leading three weeks ago, but a slump and then a knee injury have reopened the race. Bogdanovic belongs in this inner circle. He is averaging a career-high 16.9 points and hitting 37.6% from deep on 10 attempts per 36 minutes. When he's on, Bogdanovic is a one-man inferno who can flip a game in two minutes. He can soak up more ballhandling when defenses blitz Young or Dejounte Murray -- or when one is injured. The Hawks are plus-3.1 per 100 possessions with Bogdanovic on the floor -- and minus-7.6 when he sits. Bogdanovic is not super fast, but he prods with a cagey change of pace that is tough to track. Derrick White hounds Bogdanovic around two screens. Bogdanovic pump-fakes, waits for White to fly by and then ... just keeps waiting until White ends up all the way on Bogdanovic's right shoulder. Bogdanovic burrows into White's chest, nudging him toward the sideline, and saunters through the alley that opens. When Bogdanovic senses he can get all the way to the rim, he hits the gas, crosses back to his right and evades Kristaps Porzingis with the artful up-and-under. (It's really more of a horizontal-and-under.) The Hawks are 12-9 since losing Young to finger surgery -- 11th in offense in that stretch and 15th in defense. They have outscored opponents by 2.4 points per 100 possessions. They were minus-2.4 before Young's injury -- 10th in offense and an embarrassing 30th in defense. Murray is averaging 25 points and 9 assists since Young went out. It's no surprise the Hawks have tightened their defense without Young. It's less about Young anyway, and more the Hawks being minus-150 this season with Young and Murray on the floor. Atlanta barely won its combined minutes last season. This is a 2,700-minute sample of mediocrity. It's not yet clear the Hawks are "better" without Young. It is clear that they aren't very good with Young and Murray and that they're not any worse off with only one. It's simple logic from there to trade one, recoup the picks that went out of the door in the original Murray deal and reorient the roster. Which one? The answer is probably whoever fetches the greater return.
7. When the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks remember to feed the big fellasFor all the (well-earned) gushing over Boston's use of Kristaps Porzingis' post game, it sometimes seems as if they take Al Horford's skill on the block for granted. That old-school, ground-bound post game still works in the right matchups. Horford can pound guards on switches just as Porzingis does. Horford has only 42 post touches all season -- about 1.2 per 100 possessions, by far the lowest rate of his career, per Second Spectrum data. Boston has scored 1.44 points directly out of Horford post-ups, fourth among 91 players with at least 30 post touches. Tossing it to Horford against mismatches also opens up his passing game -- a pathway to the juiciest catch-and-shoot 3s. Depending on matchups, one of the key postseason decisions facing Boston coach Joe Mazzulla will be how often he goes big -- pairing Horford and Porzingis. After a slowish start, Boston is now plus-14 points per 100 possessions when Horford and Porzingis share the floor. Their spacing and speed suffer some, although Horford can still chase smaller guys when he gears up. But those lineups are huge -- hard to score on, healthy for Boston's sometimes inconsistent defensive rebounding. Meanwhile in Milwaukee, Brook Lopez has only 14 more post touches than Horford in 500 more minutes! That equates to a measly 1.18 post touches per 100 possessions -- down from 2.8 last season. The introduction of Damian Lillard is driving that, and Milwaukee's offense has been very good. Lopez's shooting is oxygen for Giannis Antetokounmpo's battering ram drives. But some opponents put their centers on Antetokounmpo, stashing wings on Lopez. Some teams might even toy with switching the Lillard-Lopez pick-and-roll in doses -- leaving guards on Lopez. In those scenarios, the Bucks should look at Lopez a bit more. He is still a bulldozer in the post -- with soft touch.
8. One of the coolest steals in basketballAh, the perfectly timed entry-pass interception: Leap backward right as the passer releases the ball, reach out and snag that baby in midair. Dejounte Murray and Kawhi Leonard are very good at this. More defenders should try it. The downside risk is whiffing and then watching as the post player touches the ball back to the entry passer for an open 3. But that's a tough pass to make on target, and elite defenders have the balance and speed to recover for at least a token contest. Also, some entry passers aren't great 3-point shooters unless they catch the ball in rhythm! In those cases, more defenders should sag away from the entry passer -- once he has picked up his dribble -- to deny the post pass. It is a low-hanging morsel of good defensive fruit. That's a decent risk-reward bet by Anthony Edwards. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a very good shooter, but Nikola Jokic posting up Kyle Anderson is a higher priority. Take that away, and force Caldwell-Pope to heave from almost a standstill.
9. The Charlotte Hornets' communication on defenseThe Hornets are 29th in defensive efficiency and in a virtual tie for 29th on offense, perilously close to finishing last on both sides -- a rare anti-accomplishment I call "Bobcatting" in honor of the 7-59 Charlotte Bobcats of 2011-12. Injuries torpedoed the Hornets' season. They overhauled the roster at the trade deadline; it's hard to play coherent defense with a bunch of young players who barely know one another. But Charlotte's defense has been an incoherent mess regardless of personnel. That is from Charlotte's loss Monday. Brandon Miller switches from Sam Hauser to Derrick White. Miles Bridges, guarding White, does not seem to expect that switch; he lingers, confused, as Hauser rushes free. Grant Williams spots that emergency and leaps from Luke Kornet onto Hauser -- expecting Bridges to toggle onto Kornet. Nope. Bridges chases Hauser. He and Williams collide in the paint and then pause to discuss why Williams is wearing Larry Johnson's jersey number. Bridges stands and shrugs, wondering what to do. Bridges is involved in a lot of breakdowns. It's hard to know how often he's the real culprit without knowing Charlotte's game plan for every action, but it's a bad sign when you're at the center of a lot of blunders. Bridges' off-ball defense has been disappointing. The Hornets face a major decision with Bridges' free agency this summer. Miller is ahead of the curve on defense and should develop into a major plus on that end. He has a habit of ball watching, making him vulnerable to back cuts -- a typical rookie thing. This cascade of errors is from before the trade deadline: That starts with another botched switch and devolves from there. Steve Clifford, who stepped down this week as head coach, has a track record of stitching good defenses. Any Clifford team will have a well-thought-out game plan. Something was lost in translation between the coaches and players, and it could have been as simple as the team's collective inexperience undoing everything. The Hornets can get back in the lab this summer, get healthy -- remember the hoppy Mark Williams? -- and reconstruct a defense from the ground up.
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