Jeff Passan, ESPN 44d

Passan's 2024 MLB season preview: Bold predictions and more

MLB, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals

The MLB regular season begins a week earlier than usual this year and as the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres prepare to face off in Seoul, South Korea, it's the perfect time to see where the National League West rivals -- and the other 28 teams in Major League Baseball -- stand going into the 2024 season.

Here is a team-by-team look at the year ahead for all 30 MLB teams -- the most vital players, top wagers, fantasy help and prospect insight all in one place. Whether your team is a championship contender or long shot, there is something for you here.

Jump to a team:

AL East: BAL | BOS | NYY | TB | TOR
AL Central: CHW | CLE | DET | KC | MIN
AL West: HOU | LAA | OAK | SEA | TEX

NL East: ATL | MIA | NYM | PHI | WSH
NL Central: CHC | CIN | MIL | PIT | STL
NL West: ARI | COL | LAD | SD | SF

AL East

Baltimore Orioles

Why the season hinges on Corbin Burnes: The Orioles are the closest thing to the 1990s Cleveland teams that were so loaded with position-playing talent it had to ship the likes of Brian Giles, Richie Sexson and Sean Casey elsewhere because there were no at-bats for them. Cleveland never managed to land a return the caliber of Burnes, one of the best starters in baseball and even more important to Baltimore's hopes with the health of Kyle Bradish and John Means in question. Burnes is great every year, but in his walk year, supported by the rest of this roster, he could be the difference between division champion and World Series champion for the O's.

What's the best bet: Before Gerrit Cole's elbow started barking, the New York Yankees were favored to win the American League East and the Orioles were tremendous value at +200. Even now, with the odds shaved to +190, the Orioles remain the play. They won the division last year. They have a better roster this year. This is not difficult.

How to win your fantasy league: Don't be afraid to overdraft Gunnar Henderson. Right now his ESPN average draft position (ADP) is 43.4. Not only is Henderson eligible at shortstop and third base, but his bat is genuinely special. Get in now before he's a staple in the top 10.

Who's next: This could be Colton Cowser, who's going to help the big league team this season. Or Samuel Basallo, who's arguably the best catching prospect in baseball and happens to be in the same organization as the best catcher in baseball, Adley Rutschman. Or Jackson Holliday, who's the top-ranked prospect in baseball and could crack the Opening Day roster. But let's go with Coby Mayo, the hulking third baseman who would be the top prospect in half of the organizations in baseball. Mayo is ready for the big leagues now, and all that is standing in his way is an overwhelming cache of talent already there.


Boston Red Sox

Why the season hinges on Triston Casas: The 24-year-old, who finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting last year, has the highest ceiling on the Red Sox's roster -- even higher than Rafael Devers, whom the Red Sox guaranteed $313.5 million. Casas plays first base, limiting his defensive potential, but his ability at the plate is limitless. Between an eye that's already in the 99th percentile among big leaguers and a swing that paired with his 6-foot-5, 244-pound frame produces Brick Tamland-level loud noises, Casas is the sort of offensive player who can carry a team. Even one that's otherwise meh at best.

What's the best bet: The Red Sox last season finished 78-84. They have an objectively worse roster this year, and that was before an elbow injury ended the season of their biggest free agent signing, pitcher Lucas Giolito. Take the Red Sox under 77.5 wins at -115 and run with it.

How to win your fantasy league: Championships are won in the middle rounds, and Nick Pivetta is going smack dab in the heart of most drafts with an ADP of 158.5. Here is the list of players who pitched at least 140 innings pitched last season with a higher K rate than Pivetta's 11.54 per nine innings: Spencer Strider and Blake Snell. That's it. And it is reason enough to take a flier as Pivetta transitions back to the rotation full time.

Who's next: In his first full minor league season, Roman Anthony played across three levels and finished the season at Double-A as a 19-year-old. He won't turn 20 until May, and it would surprise nobody to see his sweet, left-handed swing at Fenway Park before he reaches 21. All three outfield spots are there to be had and Anthony will fill one soon enough.


New York Yankees

Why the season hinges on Gerrit Cole: For obvious reasons. The reigning AL Cy Young winner might be the single most important player to his team in the big leagues, and his elbow barking to the point where he got an MRI this week induced a level of panic not seen in New York since Billy Ray and Winthorpe bankrupted the Dukes in "Trading Places." Between Cole and the iffy Carlos Rodon, the Yankees' rotation is a giant question mark, and for a team with championship aspirations, starting pitching uncertainty isn't exactly the sort of thing it wants before the first pitch of the season. The news, for now, is as good as the Yankees could hope for, all things considered: Cole will be shut down but avoid surgery. His return will take months, and the Yankees will miss him desperately, but if he can come back the same pitcher he was last year, it will have been well worth the wait.

What's the best bet: At his peak, Giancarlo Stanton was the most feared home run hitter in baseball. But with a troublesome injury history and a suddenly deep outfield that will get stronger upon Jasson Dominguez's return from Tommy John surgery, Stanton's at-bats could shrink, making under 27.5 home runs at -130 a solid bet.

How to win your fantasy league: Do whatever you can to get Juan Soto. Trade to the third spot in the draft. Mortgage the farm. Burn your auction budget. Whatever it takes. Batting in front of Aaron Judge, he's bound to smash his career-best run total of 111. Hitting toward the right-field porch, he's primed to far exceed his career-high 35 home runs last season. Barreling toward free agency, he's destined to put up the kind of year that wins leagues.

Who's next: The list of players 6-foot-6 or taller with the athleticism and dexterity to play center field at least semiregularly fits on one hand. Dave Winfield, Darryl Strawberry, Corey Hart and Judge. Upon Spencer Jones' arrival in the big leagues, he could join that group, and while comparing anyone to Judge is fundamentally unfair, Jones' height (6-6), elite raw power and hitting ability (he's perfectly happy poking balls the opposite way to left field) are at very least a Judge starter kit.


Tampa Bay Rays

Why the season hinges on Zach Eflin: With Shane McClanahan, Jeffrey Springs and Drew Rasmussen all recovering from arm injuries and Tyler Glasnow wearing Dodger Blue, the onus of staff ace falls on Eflin. The Rays guaranteed him more than they'd ever given a free agent when he signed a three-year, $40 million contract last winter, and he responded with the lowest walk rate in MLB and and nearly 8-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. If Eflin, 29, replicates last season, the Rays can challenge in the East. If not, their starting-pitching depth could be stretched far enough to make this a bridge season as they await the trainers' room to clear.

What's the best bet: Here are the Rays' win totals over the past five full seasons: 90, 96, 100, 86, 99. In a game predicated on building quality depth, the Rays again have a team with too many solid big leaguers to find at-bats for all of them. They're not a star-studded team. They just epitomize the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. In other words, hammer the Rays going over 84.5 wins at -115.

How to win your fantasy league: Remember Shane Baz? Three years ago, he arrived in the big leagues and finished the season with three magnificent starts. He was supposed to be the future. Then he tore his UCL and missed all of 2023. Well, he's back, and his stuff on the backfields at Rays camp is impressing onlookers. When he arrives this year, Tampa Bay will be very judicious with his usage, but for dynasty leagues, he is the sort of late-round pick who could help down the stretch in 2024 and win championships in 2025 and beyond.

Who's next: Junior Caminero got a September cup of coffee as the Rays attempted to fill the void in their lineup created by Wander Franco's administrative leave, but Caminero will bring his otherworldly power to the minor leagues to start 2024. With an infield that already includes Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Brandon Lowe and others -- and a glove scouts don't think is suited for shortstop -- Caminero will bide his time but could become the next face of the franchise in Tampa Bay.


Toronto Blue Jays

Why the season hinges on Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: The AL MVP runner-up in 2021, Guerrero regressed in 2022 and further atrophied last season, finishing with a slugging percentage (.444) smack in the 50th percentile range. That is not how MVP candidates operate -- especially those capable of hitting the ball as hard as anyone on the planet. With Guerrero headed to free agency after the 2025 season, now is the time to entertain the question: How good is he really? The Blue Jays' season might depend on it.

What's the best bet: The 2023 Blue Jays became the only team in the past four seasons to have at least four pitchers make 31 starts. It's a run of health that's almost impossible to replicate. And even with it, they managed 89 wins. Kevin Gausman and Alek Manoah working through shoulder issues in spring training doesn't bode well, nor does uncertainty at half the infield positions. The Blue Jays might have the largest spread in baseball in terms of floor and ceiling, so this one could look dumb come September, but: under 87.5 wins at -115 is the move.

How to win your fantasy league: Since taking over as Blue Jays closer in late May 2021, Jordan Romano ranks third in MLB in saves. He's currently the seventh closer being taken in ESPN leagues, and while his peripherals do suggest regression is coming, his fastball-slider combination remains one of the best two-pitch combinations in MLB. He's the rare RP1 who doesn't necessitate a pick that feels too early to take a reliever.

Who's next: As alarming as the Gausman and Manoah injuries are, the leg issues that kept Ricky Tiedemann from pitching in early-spring games concerned the Blue Jays, too. The strapping left-hander had gone from third-round pick in 2021 to perhaps the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball a year later. While injuries (and excessive caution) limited him to 44 minor league innings (followed by 18 more in the Arizona Fall League) last year, the goal this spring was to stretch him out as the big leagues beckon. The 21-year-old is almost certain to debut this season, and he should be a rotation fixture in no time.

AL Central

Chicago White Sox

Why the season hinges on Luis Robert Jr.: It's more like Robert's future hinges on the 2024 season, and more specifically whether a repeat of his MVP-caliber performance last season prompts the rebuilding White Sox to go full tank and trade him for a much-needed cache of prospects. The story of the White Sox's season is two-fold: Who cements himself as a foundational player for a team with so few, and do they move Robert as the July 30 trade deadline approaches?

What's the best bet: Robert nearly tripled his career high in home runs last year with 38. He's got immense power, and even if other teams have every reason to pitch around him, they did last year as well. Take the over on 29.5 home runs at -115.

How to win your fantasy league: Take a flier on Garrett Crochet, who went straight from the draft to the big leagues in 2020 as a reliever, excelled in that role in 2021, missed 2022 with Tommy John surgery, returned with flair last year and is now being stretched out to start. Still just 24, he is hitting 99 with his fastball and has tossed six scoreless innings this spring.

Who's next: Colson Montgomery might be the nearest facsimile to Corey Seager since the reigning World Series MVP debuted in 2015. They're about the same size (Montgomery is 6-3, 220 pounds; Seager 6-4 and 215), both play shortstop and each features a compact, powerful swing buoyed by well-above-average bat-to-ball skills. Montgomery is 22, and he should arrive at Guaranteed Rate Field by midsummer.


Cleveland Guardians

Why the season hinges on Shane Bieber: Since his debut in 2018, Bieber's reliance on his fastball has lessened dramatically, which makes sense for a pitcher whose slider, curveball and cutter all grade out as plus pitches. Still, the dip in fastball usage coincided with one in the pitch's velocity, so to see Bieber pumping 94-mph heaters consistently in his first spring start rekindled thoughts of his brilliant Cy Young-winning 2020 season.

If that Bieber shows up, as does a healthy Triston McKenzie, and Cleveland's troika of rookie starters from last season (Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen) can recreate their performances, the Guardians can put a scare into a winnable AL Central -- and perhaps convince Cleveland to hold Bieber at the trade deadline even though he'll be a free agent after the 2024 season.

What's the best bet: Everyone loves a long shot, and Tanner Bibee at +10000 to win the AL Cy Young is at least worthy of consideration. Last season, 76 starters threw at least 140 innings. Just six finished the year with sub-3.00 ERAs. Bibee was one of them, and with a mid-90s fastball and a pupu platter of slower stuff -- mid-80s slider and changeup and high-70s looping curve -- the 25-year-old mixes his pitches with the acumen of someone who's been doing this far longer.

How to win your fantasy league: Two years ago, Andres Gimenez finished sixth in AL MVP voting. Now, after a slightly down 2023, his ADP is 209.1 -- 14th among second basemen. He's good for at least 15 home runs, stole 30 bases last season and rarely strikes out. And at 25, there's still plenty of growth available. This is one of those picks that can help win a title.

Who's next: As good as the Guardians are at nurturing starting pitching -- the best -- they are almost equally bad at developing outfielders. Cleveland's outfield ranked dead last in weighted on-base average (wOBA) in 2023, which makes Chase DeLauter such a welcome sight. The 6-4, 230-pound DeLauter offers huge power combined with spectacular swing decisions. It's the kind of offensive profile needed in a lineup that with Jose Ramirez, Josh and Bo Naylor, and Gimenez is shaping up to be good sooner rather than later.


Detroit Tigers

Why the season hinges on Tarik Skubal: Skubal, 27, returned from flexor-tendon surgery on July 4 and there was no more dominant pitcher in baseball over the final half of the season. His high-strikeout, low-walk, homer-limiting, ground ball-inducing stuff is the platonic ideal for a pitcher. And he showed up this spring with another 2 mph of giddyup on his fastball, which is sitting around 98 mph. For a team that had just one pitcher throw more than 105⅔ innings last season -- the since-departed Eduardo Rodriguez -- the Tigers' rotation looks significantly better. Skubal will be the bellwether for looks turning into action.

What's the best bet: The three players with shorter odds than Colt Keith (+1000) to win AL Rookie of the Year deserve to be ahead of him: Holliday at +260 and two Texas outfielders, Evan Carter at +300 and Wyatt Langford at +400. Still, Keith will be the everyday second baseman in Detroit and he's done nothing but hit (.300/.382/.512) since the Tigers stole him in the fifth round of the 2020 draft. That makes his current odds mighty good value comparatively.

How to win your fantasy league: Tommy John surgery cut short outfielder Riley Greene's breakout year, but in the 99 games he did play, he slashed .288/.349/.447 in his age-22 season. And what has that gotten him in terms of fantasy love? Nothing. Greene's ADP of 235.3 is a good 100 spots below where he deserves to be. This is a steal waiting to happen.

Who's next: Next to Paul Skenes, the No. 1 pick in last year's draft, Jackson Jobe is the best pitcher in the minor leagues. And while the Tigers' rotation depth -- Skubal, Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda, Reese Olson, Matt Manning, Casey Mize, Sawyer Gipson-Long -- will allow them to slow-play Jobe, he might brute-force his way to the big leagues on his schedule. In 64 innings across four minor league levels last season, Jobe struck out 84 and walked six. And as good as the numbers are, the raw stuff matches them. This is a star in the making.


Kansas City Royals

Why the season hinges on Vinnie Pasquantino: The Royals need thump in their lineup beyond Bobby Witt Jr., and Pasquantino is the likeliest to provide it. He missed most of last season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum in his right shoulder, and few hitters in baseball punish a ball with the authority he does while making 99th percentile swing decisions. Pasquantino, 26, can be a middle-of-the-order force and fulfilling that potential would help alleviate concerns about a Kansas City offense that finished among the dregs of MLB last year. They might not win the AL Central, but the Royals with a healthy Pasquantino are a far better team.

What's the best bet: In the 68 games after the All-Star break last season, Bobby Witt Jr. hit .301/.343/.563 with 16 home runs. That's a 38-homer pace over a full season. Even with the odds at -125, taking the over on 29.5 home runs is the sort of move that will pay out as the 23-year-old etches his name among the best players in baseball.

How to win your fantasy league: Get Cole Ragans. His ADP is 127.3 -- and if it were half that, it still wouldn't be too high. The 26-year-old left-hander is sitting 99 mph with his fastball and mixing it with a potpourri of secondary pitches that are nearly as nasty. The cutter, in particular, is a deadly offering, cruising at 95 mph and sawing off right-handed hitters galore. The lone risk is Ragans' long injury history, but you don't win championships drafting scared.

Who's next: A towering right-handed reliever who uses a near-even fastball-slider-curveball mix, James McArthur threw 16⅓ scoreless innings in September, struck out 19 and didn't walk a batter. McArthur could find himself closing if Will Smith fumbles early. Kansas City's May 2023 acquisition of him from Philadelphia for a rookie-ball outfielder isn't quite on the level of the deal to get Ragans from Texas for Aroldis Chapman a month later, it's the sort of trade that helps a team go from 106 losses to 20 games better.


Minnesota Twins

Why the season hinges on Royce Lewis: In a lineup full of steady performers, Lewis showed an unrivaled star quality in his first extended big league playing time last season. He hit .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs in 239 plate appearances and followed with four home runs in six postseason games. The No. 1 overall pick in the 2017 draft, Lewis battled injuries and ineffectiveness before arriving in the big leagues as a polished player. He carries himself with uncommon maturity for a 24-year-old, and as the Twins go for their second consecutive AL Central title, they'll go as far as the left side of their infield, with Lewis and Carlos Correa, takes them.

What's the best bet: The MLB strikeout leaders in 2023, in order: Spencer Strider, Kevin Gausman and, tied for third, Blake Snell and Pablo Lopez. Lopez is the Twins' undisputed ace, and at +1200 to win the AL Cy Young, he's a sharp play with Cole and Gausman ailing, former teammate Sonny Gray gone to St. Louis and 200-plus strikeouts in the offing.

How to win your fantasy league: Bailey Ober is no longer a sleeper, but his ADP of 150.1 reflects more his 146-to-29 strikeout-to-walk ratio last season than the 2 mph extra of fastball velocity he's showing off in spring training. At 6-9 and 260 pounds, Ober regularly pumping 92-mph heaters was rather anomalous. Now he's got the fastball to match his size and it should make his already-filthy curveball and changeup even more devastating.

Who's next: Brooks Lee was once in the discussion to go first overall in the 2022 draft, and Minnesota happily gobbled him up with the eighth pick. He might never be one of the 25 best players in MLB, but Lee has the hit tool to win a batting title and enough glove to play an above-average second base and shortstop at a perfectly acceptable level. If he weren't blocked by Lewis and Correa on the left side and Edouard Julien -- a left-handed hitter who crushes right-handed pitching -- at second, the switch-hitting Lee might be in the big leagues already.

AL West

Houston Astros

Why the season hinges on the Bullpen Cerberus: Bryan Abreu, Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader are the Nasty Boys of the early 1990s reborn -- or, perhaps more appropriately, the 2003 Astros bullpen reincarnated. That team featured Billy Wagner, Octavio Dotel and an emergent Brad Lidge to secure the final nine outs, and with their starting pitcher exceeding six innings just 43 times that season -- ranked 28th in MLB -- they needed it. Adding baseball's most dominant closer to an already-stacked bullpen relieves pressure from Houston's rotation and allows new manager Joe Espada to keep his rotation -- particularly 41-year-old Justin Verlander -- fresh for the postseason, where the Astros figure to end up for the eighth straight year.

What's the best bet: When healthy, Yordan Alvarez might be the best pure hitter in baseball. But he has never played more than 144 games and never hit more than 37 home runs in any of his five big league seasons, so taking the under on 37.5 home runs at -115 is simply a bet on history repeating itself.

How to win your fantasy league: Chas McCormick played about 75% of the time last season and was still just one stolen base shy of a 20-20 season. Espada has pledged to give the outfielder full-time at-bats this year, and to see McCormick with an ADP of 241.3 suggests only the most keen fantasy players understand how good he is. The advice: Be a keen fantasy player and thieve him late.

Who's next: Yes, the Astros are where they are still thanks to the championship-caliber core borne of high draft picks. What gets less notoriety is how well they've complemented it through a player-development system that has produced Yordan Álvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jeremy Pena, Yainer Diaz, McCormick, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and plenty more. The latest on the cusp is Spencer Arrighetti, a right-hander they took in the sixth round of the 2021 draft. Houston's depth will keep Arrighetti at Triple-A for now, but with a mid- to upper-90s fastball and a silly sweeper, he'll arrive soon enough.


Los Angeles Angels

Why the season hinges on Mike Trout: Never did the possibility of Trout playing baseball and ranking as the 19th-best player in the sport seem real, and yet there he was, voted there by a panel at ESPN. The Angels are not a playoff team but getting Trout back to his normal self after an injury-plagued "down" season -- with a 131 OPS+, by the way -- is as much a priority as getting their young core acclimated to the big leagues. Trout, remember, was the last person before Shohei Ohtani to carry the best-player-in-baseball label, and at 32, he's far from washed. One injury-free season would go a long way toward rescuing the perception of Trout and returning him to the top-five spot in next year's MLB Rank.

What's the best bet: Trout has won three AL MVP awards (and arguably should've won two more). So why is he at +2000 to win it again? Even if the Angels are mediocre, those odds are extraordinarily favorable -- tied for eighth lowest among AL players -- and worth a shot.

How to win your fantasy league: With an ADP of 242.4 and a ranking as the 14th-best catcher in the big leagues, Logan O'Hoppe is waiting to be purloined. In 199 plate appearances last year, he hit 14 home runs. With Trout back, he figures to drive in far more runs than his 29 in 2023. O'Hoppe isn't Adley Rutschman or William Contreras. But he's easily a top-10 catcher going forward and, if the power remains, could sneak his way even higher.

Who's next: Typically this spot belongs to a prospect, but the Angels traded all theirs who were nearly big-league ready in an ill-fated effort to build a playoff team around Ohtani last summer before finishing 73-89. The best candidate, then, is first baseman Nolan Schanuel, who was summoned to the big leagues a month after the Angels took him with the 11th pick in the 2023 draft. Schanuel fell just shy of losing his rookie status and managed a .402 on-base percentage, and if the power he displayed at Florida Atlantic shows up in the big leagues, he'll be a heart-of-the-order fixture for years.


Oakland Athletics

Why the season hinges on Zack Gelof: The A's hinge, like everything else at Oakland Coliseum, is broken. So instead let's use this space to tout their best player, a 2021 second-round pick who zoomed to the big leagues and put up nearly three wins above replacement in half a season. Gelof, 24, will be the fulcrum of an infield that by midsummer could include 22-year-old Darell Hernaiz at third base, 21-year-old Max Muncy at shortstop and 27-year-old Ryan Noda at first. For a team that's bound to lose 100-plus games for the third consecutive season, players like Gelof -- who hit .267/.337/.504 with 14 home runs in 300 plate appearances -- provide some hope in a situation devoid of it.

What's the best bet: The A's are bad. But they are not close to as bad as they were last year. And losing 105 games takes a really, really bad team. So take the A's over 57.5 wins at -125 and enjoy every victory that Mason Miller closes out with a 103-mph fastball.

How to win your fantasy league: Withstand the chorus of "Who?" that will accompany the selection and grab J.P. Sears. Seen as the third-best prospect sent to the A's by the Yankees in the ill-fated Frankie Montas deal, Sears has spent the spring pumping fastballs up to 95 mph and wiping out hitters with a filthy slider. Other organizations covet the 5-foot-11 left-hander, so he could be on the move at some point, but for now the A's -- and those canny enough to see past his 259.5 ADP -- will reap the benefits.

Who's next: Oakland acquired the Ober-sized Joe Boyle for left-hander Sam Moll at the trade deadline last year, and during his three-start stretch with the A's at the end of the season, Boyle proved himself capable of holding down a big league rotation spot. Everything with Boyle comes down to his ability to throw strikes. The stuff is downright nasty: a 100-mph fastball and a pair of swing-and-miss breaking balls. Figure out how to control two of his three pitches, and Boyle's immense upside could be realized.


Seattle Mariners

Why the season hinges on Julio Rodriguez: The Mariners' topsy-turvy winter started with them dealing third baseman Eugenio Suarez and left fielder Jarred Kelenic before adding slugger Mitch Garver, second baseman Jorge Polanco and relievers Gregory Santos and Ryne Stanek. All of it was a slight net positive, which brings up a fair question: With payroll limitations keeping them from making the big sorts of moves teams with a rotation like the Mariners should, how are they planning to go from non-playoff team to playoff team? The answer is one word: Julio. The 23-year-old Rodriguez -- whose 11.5 WAR are the 11th most by a player in his first two seasons since 1901 -- is ready to reach the level of stardom few can. He can hit for average, hit for power, run like mad and play center field. And if he goes to the seven- or eight-WAR level, he'll carry the Mariners with him to October.

What's the best bet: Cy Young voters are suckers for pitchers with low walk totals, and, accordingly, they love George Kirby. The 26-year-old right-hander issued just 19 base on balls in 190⅔ innings last season, a walk rate not seen in a full season since Cliff Lee in 2010. So, yeah, Kirby at +1500 to win the AL Cy Young combines a pitcher in his prime, long-enough odds to make the juice worth the squeeze and an unmatched skill set of pure precision and power.

How to win your fantasy league: Snag closer Andres Munoz, whose ADP of 135.7 doesn't properly reflect how valuable he can be. Matt Brash and Santos were options to vulture saves, but arm injuries have slowed both to the point that the ninth inning could be Munoz's and Munoz's alone. Oh, and the career 12.7 strikeouts per nine doesn't hurt Munoz's case, either.

Who's next: Four-fifths of Seattle's rotation were drafted and developed, and the Mariners continued their excellent drafting last year by taking high school bats Colt Emerson and Jonny Farmelo in the first round. While both will start the year in Class A, scouts are raving about them, and if there were a redraft, even in a class as deep as 2023, both would be top 10 picks. This is how good organizations stay good.


Texas Rangers

Why the season hinges on Corey Seager: While recovering from sports hernia surgery can take months, Seager wants to be back soon after Opening Day, and at this point who's to question him on anything? He is coming off his second World Series MVP honor, and even in a stacked Rangers lineup, he is more lighter fluid than spark. When Seager, 29, is locked in, there aren't many better hitters on the planet. Texas can turn to the plenty-capable Ezequiel Duran to fill in at short, sure, but the Rangers are incomplete without Seager, and their hopes of back-to-back championships depend on their shortstop playing at his best.

What's the best bet: Even with sports hernia surgery jeopardizing Seager's Opening Day status, over 29.5 home runs at -115 seems like easy money. Seager hit 33 in just 119 games last year after belting 33 in 151 games in 2022.

How to win your fantasy league: Draft and stash Jacob deGrom. Remember him? The best pitcher in the world's ADP is 255.9. For leagues with an injured list, he should go at least 100 spots higher. And even those in leagues without one should consider grabbing deGrom. Because if he returns from Tommy John surgery as scheduled in August, two months of big strikeouts and low walks could make the difference between the teams fighting for the first.

Who's next: As if promoting Evan Carter wasn't enough, now the Rangers are toying with rostering another toolsy outfielder, Wyatt Langford, on Opening Day. Langford going to Texas No. 4 in the 2023 draft is the epitome of good fortune -- particularly considering the fourth pick's ignominious history -- and evaluators expect him to thrive in the big leagues immediately, with immense right-handed power and enough patience to put up gaudy on-base numbers alongside the slug.

NL East

Atlanta Braves

Why the season hinges on Spencer Strider: By the end of this season, there's a reasonable chance that Strider will be regarded as the best pitcher on the planet. He's already the world's preeminent strikeout artist, punching out 281 in 186⅔ innings last season and 483 in his first 320⅔ career innings. His slider, as the great Sarah Langs noted, induced the most swings and misses in MLB last season (306) and his four-seamer the second most (285). And yet in Strider's three playoff starts, the Braves are winless, and that's what makes Strider even more vital than reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. and the rest of the Braves' wrecking crew.

Unlike most of the teams in MLB, Atlanta is a relatively safe bet to make the postseason. Once there, a dominant Strider performance would go a long way toward helping the Braves make another World Series run after consecutive bow-outs to Philadelphia in the division series.

What's the best bet: Strider is +500 to lead MLB in strikeouts. The only thing that will prevent that is an injury. With Cole injured, there is no other strikeout artist who can come close to Strider.

How to win your fantasy league: Pounce on Michael Harris II in the outfield dead zone. Currently, the ADP gap between the ninth-ranked outfielder (Julio Rodriguez at 23.2) and the 10th (Kyle Schwarber at 53.6) spans more than 30 picks. It offers opportunistic owners the ability to focus on more scarce positions early and take Harris higher than his current ADP of 66.0. Harris, remember, got off to a dreadful start last year. On June 6, he was hitting .163/.246/.244. From that day on, he was the 10th-best position player in all of MLB by WAR and slashed .335/.360/.552. Only 23, Harris is getting better, too, and considering the rest of the Braves' lineup, that's scary.

Who's next: With Max Fried set to strike gold next winter and Charlie Morton perhaps finally ready to retire, Atlanta will need to replenish its starting rotation. For the $725 million the Braves have guaranteed their position-playing core, Strider is the only pitcher that Alex Anthopoulos has handed a long-term deal. Atlanta prefers to develop pitching within, and AJ Smith-Shawver is the best and most big-league ready among their current group of young arms. He debuted at 20 years old last season, and with a fastball that sits at 96 mph and tickles 100, he's almost ready to take the mantle for a team rich in pitching history.


Miami Marlins

Why the season hinges on Jazz Chisholm Jr.: When Chisholm plays, he is electric -- a genuine five-tool center fielder. Problem is, here are his games-played totals in his three full major league seasons: 124, 60 and 97. That's not even 58% of the Marlins' total during that span. If Chisholm can manage to remain healthy, he provides a boost to a Miami lineup that made the postseason last year despite scoring an NL-worst 666 runs. With Luis Arraez planning to focus on hitting more home runs this season, a full year of Josh Bell at first and Tim Anderson eyeing a bounceback at short, Miami's offense has potential. Chisholm taking the leap would go a long way to helping fulfill it.

What's the best bet: While the tempting pick might be Eury Perez to win the NL Cy Young at +3500, he's going to be on an innings limit. Jesus Luzardo, in the meantime, threw 178⅔ innings last year, had a practically identical strikeout rate to Perez, walked fewer batters and allowed fewer home runs. And with Luzardo potentially reaching the 200-inning mark this season, getting him at +3000 for the NL Cy Young is a solid value bet.

How to win your fantasy league: Let everyone else spend early picks on third basemen and snipe Jake Burger late. With an ADP of 241.9, Burger might be the best sleeper of the season. Certainly hitting the ball hard doesn't guarantee success, but here is the top 10 list of EV50, a Statcast metric that takes the average exit velocity of a player's top 50% hardest-hit balls: Aaron Judge, Ronald Acuña Jr., Giancarlo Stanton, Shohei Ohtani, Burger, Matt Olson, Yordan Álvarez, Rafael Devers, Juan Soto and Yandy Diaz. It's exceptional company, and Burger going 19th among third basemen is just a misplay by the fantasy populace.

Who's next: Max Meyer is a former No. 3 overall pick who missed the 2023 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He's back to carving, and even though the Marlins' rotation is deep (and that's without former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who is out after undergoing Tommy John himself), Meyer and his hellacious slider could join it soon enough.


New York Mets

Why the season hinges on Kodai Senga: Shoulder capsule injuries can be absolute nightmares for pitchers, and Senga missing all of spring training because of one doesn't bode well. With Justin Verlander in Houston and Max Scherzer in Texas, the Mets' projected 2024 rotation is a shell of what it was once supposed to be. Senga, coming off a sterling MLB rookie season, was supposed to be the saving grace. And if he can work through the injury and pitch at the same level, the Mets are talented enough to pose an outside shot at a playoff appearance. Without him, their chances of playing into October diminish greatly.

What's the best bet: Most projection systems have the Mets somewhere in the 78- to 82-win territory. Without Senga -- and with the Braves and Phillies still juggernauts, the Marlins plenty capable and the Nationals almost certain to improve -- taking the Mets under 81.5 wins at -115 is a fair bet.

How to win your fantasy league: Get Francisco Alvarez. Currently the 12th-ranked catcher with an ADP of 203.1, he's primed to put up top-five numbers at the position. For dynasty leagues, let everyone else covet Adley Rutschman. Alvarez's long-term offensive numbers could be even better.

Who's next: A pocket rocket in the mold of Jose Altuve, 20-year-old shortstop/center fielder Jett Williams destroyed both A-ball levels before finishing his first full season at Double-A. He's an on-base machine, walking at nearly a 20% clip, and he stole 45 bases in 52 attempts last year. At 5-6, Williams still packs a powerful punch as well, and while his ETA is more 2025 than 2024, he could play himself into a late-season cup of coffee.


Philadelphia Phillies

Why the season hinges on Trea Turner: Which Turner are the Phillies getting? The one who through his first 108 games in Philadelphia hit .236/.289/.367? Or the guy who after that whacked 16 home runs in 47 games and slashed .339/.391/.677? An MVP-caliber season from Turner not only puts pressure on opposing pitchers and catchers but puts a runner on the basepaths for Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and the rest of Philadelphia's deep lineup. The Phillies are going to be good regardless. If Turner is OPSing 40% better than league average compared to 11% last year, they've got a chance to be great.

What's the best bet: The Braves are rightly NL East favorites, but the spread in odds -- Atlanta -275, Philadelphia +320 -- makes the Phillies an attractive bet to take the division. They're the third-most-talented team in the NL, and exceeding their win totals of the past two seasons (87 and 90) is well within reach.

How to win your fantasy league: Wait until the end of the draft and poach Cristopher Sanchez. The lanky left-hander continues to impress in spring training and will be more than an afterthought -- as he was before Game 4 of the NLCS last year -- come playoff time this year. Sanchez's current ADP of 259.1 suggests he'll be a free agent in a majority of leagues. Don't allow him to get there.

Who's next: Don't let Orion Kerkering's NLCS meltdown get in the way of what his stuff and other performances say: He's going to be a frontline reliever, and it would surprise no one if he's closing games for the Phillies by the end of 2024. A year after the Phillies selected him in the fifth round of the 2022 draft, Kerkering made the rare Low-A-to-High-A-to-Double-A-to-Triple-A-to-MLB jump in one season.


Washington Nationals

Why the season hinges on James Wood: No big deal. Just a bunch of stars in this spot for every other team, and now here's Wood, who hasn't even made his big league debut yet. But when a team is in the throes of a rebuild, there's always a canary-in-the-coal-mine prospect, and that is Wood, a 6-7, 240-pound leviathan whose power is herculean and athleticism sneaky enough that he acquits himself in center field. He'll arrive at Nationals Park sometime this year, and when he does, it will signal a new phase of the rebuild: actual production from a player around whom the team has built its hope.

What's the best bet: The Nationals scraped together 71 wins last year, and with potential regression from the Marlins, and the Mets not yet the power they intend to be in 2025 and beyond, it's more than reasonable to take the Nationals over 66.5 wins at -115.

How to win your fantasy league: Win the stolen-bases category with CJ Abrams. Part of the enormous return from San Diego for Juan Soto, the 23-year-old Abrams swiped 47 bags in 51 attempts last year. His ADP is 162.9, offering incredible value for a player who can keep a team from having to punt a category. His developing power only adds to the allure that will make Abrams a top-10 shortstop in no time.

Who's next: If Wood's big league debut is imminent, Dylan Crews won't be far behind. The No. 1 pick in the 2023 draft dissected SEC pitching while at LSU and ascended to Double-A within weeks of signing for $9.2 million. Whether he's in center field or a corner, Crews can flat-out rake, and the next era of baseball in the capital will include plenty of memorable moments from him.

NL Central

Chicago Cubs

Why the season hinges on Cody Bellinger: The Cubs' patience behooved them this winter, and instead of committing the $200 million-plus Bellinger sought on a long-term deal, they're running it back with the 28-year-old center fielder for $30 million this year and a maximum of $80 million over three years. If Chicago gets the Bellinger of last year -- .307/.356/.525 with 26 home runs and 20 stolen bases -- the Cubs should be right there in what's shaping up to be a very competitive NL Central. If Bellinger reverts to his previous two years' production -- combined slash line of .193/.256/.355 -- it's the sort of thing that can make the difference between first and fourth place.

What's the best bet: Here's a long shot worth considering: Nico Hoerner at +4000 to lead MLB in hits. He's a high-average, low-walk, low-strikeout hitter who's going to play every day. And while Luis Arraez and Bo Bichette and Freddie Freeman do exist, Hoerner is paying 4-5 times what they would.

How to win your fantasy league: Versatility is a deeply undervalued quality in fantasy baseball, and few players in MLB bring that of Christopher Morel. He'll start the year qualified at second base and outfield in all leagues, and while he'll move around the diamond, most of his at-bats could come at third base, adding another position. At 24, Morel is already a genuine power threat and if he can cut down his strikeouts, he's a force.

Who's next: Another if-the-draft-happened-again-he'd-go-earlier lock, Matt Shaw crushed from the moment he got into pro ball last summer and wound up in Double-A. If the Cubs didn't have Dansby Swanson and Hoerner up the middle, Shaw might break camp with the big league team. For now, they're just glad the 13th pick so quickly grew into a potential foundational player.


Cincinnati Reds

Why the season hinges on Elly De La Cruz: For all of the magical things De La Cruz did in his debut season, his final line (.235/.300/.410) left plenty to be desired. Were he not a video game create-a-player come to life -- a 6-5, 210-pound, left-side-of-the-infield, power-hitting, basepath-blazing force -- that would be a fine debut. Because De La Cruz's ceiling is so stratospheric, though, it left plenty to be desired. Fulfilling that desire this season would place De La Cruz in the middle of the MVP conversation, and if the other baby Reds -- Matt McLain, Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Andrew Abbott -- can avoid sophomore slumps, this is a team whose potential exceeds any in the NL Central.

What's the best bet: The Reds to win the World Series at +5000. This is probably a year early, but the odds -- for some reason longer than the Red Sox, Mets and Giants -- are too good to look past.

How to win your fantasy league: Back from a leg injury that waylaid his 2023, Nick Lodolo wowed scouts last spring and looked primed to join Hunter Greene atop the rotation. As a rookie, he struck out 131 in 109 innings. He is currently the 79th-ranked pitcher in ESPN leagues with an ADP of 255.0. Late-round acumen wins leagues.

Who's next: After unleashing one of the best rookie classes you'll ever see, Cincinnati's cupboard isn't exactly bare but could use a little replenishing. Right-hander Connor Phillips fell just short of exhausting his rookie status last year, and the Reds' depth -- Lodolo, Abbott, Greene, Frankie Montas, Nick Martinez, Graham Ashcraft, Brandon Williamson -- could keep him from an immediate rotation spot. But the fastball is a high-spin, 97-mph beast combined with a plus sweeper that makes for a nasty two-pitch mix that could help him thrive in the bullpen in the meantime.


Milwaukee Brewers

Why the season hinges on Freddy Peralta: Corbin Burnes is in Baltimore. Brandon Woodruff is out for the year after shoulder surgery. Peralta inherits the Opening Day mantle, and if he lessens his home runs allowed, he has legitimate No. 1 upside. For the first time in years, Milwaukee's rotation is its biggest weakness. Peralta is the stabilizing factor, and Peralta at his best would keep the Brewers in contention in a division they've won three of the past six seasons.

What's the best bet: The Brewers have won more than 78 games each of the past six full seasons, so taking the over on 77.5 -- even without Burnes and Woodruff -- is a practical play. But for a good gamble, go with outfielder Jackson Chourio at +800 to win NL Rookie of the Year. Chourio, who turned 20 this week, will be the Brewers' starting center fielder after signing an eight-year, $82 million contract extension before his debut, and he has the power and speed to be right there alongside Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the rookie race.

How to win your fantasy league: Sal Frelick's transition from the outfield to third base has come with rave reviews internally, and while the Brewers have a number of options at the position -- the newly acquired Joey Ortiz, the incumbent Andruw Monasterio and top prospect Tyler Black -- freeing up a crowded outfield by putting Frelick at third might be the ideal scenario. The outfielder/third baseman is a rare species, and the positional eligibility only adds to Frelick's solid value as a hitter and late-round pick.

Who's next: Jacob Misiorowski is the epitome of a next-generation pitcher, trained to leverage his incredible physical characteristics -- 6-7 with enormous levers and uncommon proprioception -- into pitches that push the edge of human performance. His fastball sits at 99 mph and touches 102. His slider and curveball both spin at 3,000 rpm. The only question is whether he can throw enough strikes to remain a starter. If so, he can be among the best in the world. If not, he'll simply be one of the best relief pitchers in the game.


Pittsburgh Pirates

Why the season hinges on Oneil Cruz: A broken ankle ended Cruz's 2023 season after just nine games and robbed Pittsburgh of its best player, a 6-7 shortstop with otherworldly power and speed. Cruz is crushing home runs in spring training and showing no ill effects from the injury, giving the Pirates hope that their first playoff season in a decade can come this year. Cruz and Ke'Bryan Hayes could form one of the best left sides of the infield in baseball.

What's the best bet: Paul Skenes was a ready-made big leaguer the moment he left LSU, and if the Pirates have any intentions of calling him up this season, it makes sense to do so earlier than later. In which case the +3000 odds on him winning NL Rookie of the Year -- inexplicably longer than a dozen other players -- make for outstanding value.

How to win your fantasy league: At this point next year, Skenes is likely to be a top-20 starting pitcher. Currently, he's 78th with a 254.7 ADP. For dynasty players, the No. 1 pick in last year's draft should go at least 100 spots higher. And even those playing in single-season leagues should jump at drafting him, because Skenes should be in the big leagues by June, and he'll immediately be a high-strikeout force.

Who's next: With an incredible eye and surprising power for a 5-8 second baseman, Termarr Johnson has the kind of skill set that allows a player to cruise through the minor leagues. A jump to the big leagues is almost certainly out of the question for someone who doesn't turn 20 until June, but Johnson could put himself on the cusp of a debut next year with a repeat of his full-season debut, in which he slashed .244/.422/.438 with 18 home runs between both levels of Class A.


St. Louis Cardinals

Why the season hinges on Sonny Gray: The Cardinals fell apart in 2023, a stunning collapse from an organization that simply doesn't have down years. To remedy that, they went free agent shopping at the veteran-arm store, bringing in Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Gray. Coming off a second-place finish in AL Cy Young voting, Gray as much as anyone has benefitted from the sweeper revolution, turning to it as his go-to pitch. A hamstring injury has sidelined him for most of the spring, but he's not expected to miss much regular-season time, and if he can be the sort of ace the Cardinals desperately need, clawing their way out of the NL Central basement will be a far easier endeavor.

What's the best bet: Paul Goldschmidt hit 25 home runs last year. In his previous five full seasons, he hit 36, 33, 34, 31 and 35. Take the over on 25.5 homers at -115.

How to win your fantasy league: Nolan Arenado is the seventh-ranked third baseman by ESPN fantasy players, a fair place considering his down year in 2023. But after a decade of going in the first and second rounds of drafts, his ADP is 72.8. That is too low. For pure value, Arenado could be a better option than the majority of third basemen going above him.

Who's next: The Cardinals don't need another position player to add to the glut they've already got in their everyday lineup, but Thomas Saggese might force his way into the conversation. A fifth-round pick by Texas in the 2020 draft, Saggese was part of St. Louis' return in the trade that sent Jordan Montgomery to the Rangers. He continued crushing at Double-A upon his arrival. He ended the season at Triple-A, where he'll begin 2024, and after a .306/.374/.530 season with 26 home runs and 111 RBIs, the infielder -- likely to wind up at second base -- will be in St. Louis some point soon.

NL West

Arizona Diamondbacks

Why the season hinges on Zac Gallen: One of the most underappreciated players in MLB, Gallen threw the second-most regular-season innings in the sport last season with 210 and tacked on another 33⅔ in the postseason. That kind of output is increasingly rare, and his ability to return at the same level is paramount in a division that includes a spectacularly talented Dodgers team, a Padres unit that just added Dylan Cease and a Giants squad that has stocked up in free agency. Gallen, 28, is crafty and dominant, a rare combination that manifests itself with high strikeout rates complemented by low walk and home run rates. He's exactly the sort a team wants at the top of its rotation. Arizona's fortunes could depend on his ability to get deep into games.

What's the best bet: Anything with Corbin Carroll, really. Over 22.5 home runs at -115? Check. NL MVP at +2000? Great value. Leading the NL in hits at +5000? Probably not, but Carroll's contact skills are already well above average, and at 23, he's only getting better.

How to win your fantasy league: Select Gabriel Moreno and make sure to keep him for the next decade. Moreno showed up in excellent shape this spring, the sort of thing an organization loves to see after a deep playoff run. He's already a franchise catcher at 24, and while his Gold Glove defense won't show up in fantasy numbers, Moreno is a high-average hitter whose power showed up in October -- when he hit four home runs in 17 games during Arizona's World Series run.

Who's next: No prospect in baseball is as blocked as Jordan Lawlar, the shortstop who has Geraldo Perdomo ahead of him at shortstop, Ketel Marte at second base and offseason acquisition Eugenio Suarez at third. At 21, Lawlar is young enough to head back to Triple-A for more seasoning, but he might not need it: In 16 games there before he was called up to the big leagues, Lawlar hit .358/.438/.612. Situations like Lawlar's often work themselves out -- and not necessarily via trade, either, with Arizona loath to park with a potential franchise shortstop.


Colorado Rockies

Why the season hinges on Ezequiel Tovar: This is more to understand whether the 22-year-old is the shortstop of Colorado's future or simply a placeholder until prospect Adael Amador is big league ready. Tovar might be the best defensive shortstop in baseball now, so chances are Amador is the one who shifts to second, but Colorado would like to see more from someone whose 166-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio last season hindered him from getting any NL Rookie of the Year love.

What's the best bet: The Rockies have done almost nothing to improve themselves at the big league level this winter. They won 59 games last year. Their over/under is 60.5 at -110. Considering that the rest of the NL West did improve itself this winter -- significantly so in some cases -- take the under.

How to win your fantasy league: Draft right-hander Justin Lawrence and hope he can stick at closer all season. Getting saves on the cheap is a quality plenty of front-line fantasy owners embrace because the jobs change hands so often. For now, Lawrence is the favorite. And with the Rockies likely to play a number of close games, the hard-throwing, late-blooming Lawrence -- he's 29 -- could turn into David Bednar West, locking down W's for a team that isn't going anywhere fast.

Who's next: Amador is a switch-hitter who doesn't turn 21 until two weeks after Opening Day and has a skill Tovar will never match: an excellent eye. His three-season OBP totals: .394, .415 and .380. It's part of a toolset that will land him at the top of the lineup eventually, and a Tovar-Amador middle infield is the sort around which a successful team can be formed.


Los Angeles Dodgers

Why the season hinges on Mookie Betts: Even the Dodgers, a $300 million juggernaut, are not immune to the sorts of problems that lesser-monied and -talented franchises face. Take shortstop, the second-most-important position in the field. The Dodgers thought Gavin Lux was going to take the job. Instead, his throws spooked Los Angeles, and now Betts -- who has won six Gold Gloves in right field and was slated to play second base -- shifted to the position. Nobody expects Betts to win a Gold Glove at short. If he can even muster average defense, it will be a win for Los Angeles. Anything more is gravy. Los Angeles will simply hope that its strikeout-heavy pitching staff makes Betts' new job a little easier.

What's the best bet: Yes, the Dodgers have won 104-plus games three of the past four regular seasons -- and went 100-62 in the other season. Still, the under on 103.5 victories is a fair bet because (A) it's extremely difficult to win 104 or more and (B) the Dodgers without Shohei Ohtani on the mound are a lesser version of what they're bound to become when he returns from elbow surgery in 2025.

How to win your fantasy league: Get Ohtani at a discount in your keeper league this year and reap the benefits next season and beyond. Never again in his prime will Ohtani be ranked as low as eighth by ESPN fantasy users, and in a normal year, when he's pitching and DHing, you can take his current ADP of 10.0 and erase the middle number. Value is difficult to find at the top of a draft, but 2024 Ohtani represents the closest thing to it.

Who's next: With Betts moving to the middle infield, available at-bats in right field could prompt the Dodgers to summon Andy Pages. The 23-year-old is very good there defensively, but Pages' bat is what really separates him from his contemporaries within the organization. Labrum surgery ended his 2023 season early, but Pages has thrived this spring and could play himself into full-time at-bats eventually.


San Diego Padres

Why the season hinges on Fernando Tatis Jr.: If the superstar version of Tatis shows up, the Padres outfielder will rank high in MVP voting and help wipe out the memories of a disastrous 2023 for the team. Even in a down year, Tatis still managed to win a Platinum Glove in his first full season as an outfielder and put up 5.5 WAR despite posting a .770 OPS. It was nearly 200 points lower than Tatis' last full season in 2021, when he hit an NL-leading 42 home runs. The precipitous power dip was alarming, yes, but if the Padres want to win the division, they'll need the best version of Tatis carrying them to the top.

What's the best bet: Even in a relative down year, with only 138 games played, Manny Machado hit 30 home runs. Take the over on 29.5 at -115.

How to win your fantasy league: Trust the stuff and get Dylan Cease. It's true that he's coming off a down season after finishing second in AL Cy Young voting in 2022, but that just means there's an opportunity to get him on the cheap. Cease is currently the 29th-ranked starter in ESPN drafts, with an ADP of 98.2 -- about three times higher than it was last year. Even though his ERA was 4.58, Cease still struck out 214 hitters in 177 innings, and he hasn't suffered an injury during his five-year career. As pitchers keep getting hurt, Cease's availability separates him from his ADP peers.

Who's next: Leave it to the Padres to take their best prospect, shortstop Jackson Merrill, and turn him into a center fielder. The reviews on Merrill's defense are mixed, but every evaluator agrees: He can really, really hit. Merrill crushed two  home runs in spring training and OPS'd nearly 1.000 to lock down the center-field job. Now comes the fun part: seeing if the 20-year-old is as ready as the Padres believe him to be.


San Francisco Giants

Why the season hinges on Logan Webb: Remember how Gallen was second in innings pitched in MLB last season? Guess who was first. That would be Webb, whose ground ball rate of 62.1% was the highest among qualified starters by nearing 8%. The rest of San Francisco's rotation remains a patchwork affair, so to get the sort of consistency Webb provides goes a long way. Steadiness has been a hallmark of his career, and Webb surrounded by Matt Chapman at third and improved defense across the diamond could bring out an even higher level, one that would allay some of the rightful concerns of Giants fans about the team's general direction.

What's the best bet: For the past three years, Kyle Harrison has been seen as the best left-handed pitching prospect in baseball. His 34⅔-inning debut last year illustrated that his stuff absolutely will play at the big league level. He's going to get a full complement of starts. Between the innings and strikeouts that will accompany, +2500 odds to win NL Rookie of the Year offer a strong reward.

How to win your fantasy league: Enjoy the versatility of Thairo Estrada. The late-blooming middle infielder qualifies at second base and shortstop, and while he's not great at anything, he's good at plenty. His ADP of 229.0 allows fantasy players to wait until the latter rounds before calling Estrada's name.

Who's next: It better be Jung Hoo Lee. The Giants blew away the competition in signing Lee to a six-year, $113 million contract. Now he's the everyday center fielder for a team that spent more than $275 million on free agents. The Giants expect Lee to join Chapman, Jorge Soler and Jordan Hicks as players who make a difference between a 79-win season last year and one that can compete with the Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Padres for a playoff spot, let alone a division title.

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