Kiley McDaniel, ESPN MLB Insider 45d

Ranking the top prospects in 2024 MLB Spring Breakout

MLB, Baltimore Orioles, Milwaukee Brewers, Detroit Tigers, Washington Nationals, St. Louis Cardinals, Boston Red Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates, Chicago White Sox

If you enjoy watching the best MLB prospects in action -- and if you're reading this, you probably do -- then you are in luck: From March 14-17, the top young players from every MLB franchise will compete against each other in the first Spring Breakout.

The event features 16 games being played at major league spring training stadiums across Arizona and Florida, with full rosters of top prospects from each MLB franchise taking the field against each other. For example, Thursday's Spring Breakout opener featured a battle of recent No. 1 picks as Jackson Holliday's Baltimore Orioles faced off against Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Yeah, this is going to be fun.

To get you ready for the inaugural edition, I've put together rankings of the best prospects participating -- based on how I view their potential 2024 major league impact.

These are not long-term rankings of these players -- that's what my Top 100 list is for -- and before you get too upset that your favorite team's prospects are nowhere to be found, it's important to note that some notable prospects who have long been expected to break camp with their major league clubs (such as Texas' Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter) aren't part of this year's event.

Now, let's rank some budding MLB stars.

Watch on  -- Spring Breakout: Squeeze Play; Friday, March 15 at 3 p.m. ET


Tier 1: Rookie of the Year contenders

1. Jackson Holliday, SS, Baltimore Orioles
2. Jackson Chourio, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
3. Colt Keith, 2B, Detroit Tigers
4. Jackson Merrill, CF, San Diego Padres

I feel like I've done nothing but rank Holliday first on lists this winter: He's the best true prospect in baseball in the best farm system in baseball, and he projects as the best rookie both in on-field impact and for fantasy purposes. Chourio is right there with him, as a potential franchise cornerstone who has a real shot to put up 3-plus WAR as a rookie. Keith is a notch below them in my eyes, a 2-3 WAR player for 2024 with power as his carrying tool. Merrill wasn't expected to be on the Padres' Opening Day roster as camp opened, but the odds have steadily increased all spring, and it looks like the true shortstop will be San Diego's starting center fielder. He can really hit and has 15-homer upside.


Tier 2: Elite prospects who could make early-season impact

5. James Wood, RF, Washington Nationals
6. Masyn Winn, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
7. Ceddanne Rafaela, CF, Boston Red Sox
8. Paul Skenes, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
9. Colson Montgomery, SS, Chicago White Sox
10. Coby Mayo, 3B, Baltimore Orioles

Editor's note: Rays prospect Junior Caminero was added to Tampa Bay's Spring Breakout roster Thursday and would rank at the top of this tier

Winn should be the Cardinals' Opening Day shortstop and will likely spend the entire season in the big leagues, in large part because of his defense. I expect his rookie campaign to be more solid than spectacular in terms of WAR, while his long-term upside is better. Rafaela is now tracking like the Opening Day center fielder for the Red Sox and ranks much better in a WAR context than for fantasy baseball because his plus-plus defense is his best tool, but he also has plenty of tools to post solid baseball card numbers.

Wood, Montgomery and Skenes begin the speculative rankings of elite, top-20 prospects who will likely begin the year in the upper minors, but could be called up by midseason if a need arises or they have blazing hot starts.


Tier 3: Mid-level prospects who should make Opening Day rosters

11. Graham Pauley, 3B, San Diego Padres
12. Darrell Hernaiz, SS, Oakland Athletics

Pauley and Hernaiz are several notches below the above group in terms of overall prospect value, but both are projected to break camp with their clubs. Pauley right now looks like the left-handed-hitting side of a third base platoon, while Hernaiz could be the top utility player on the Oakland roster to start the season, with a shot to take over shortstop duties from Nick Allen or third base from Abraham Toro later in the year.


Tier 4: Top prospects with chance to make midseason impact

13. Chase DeLauter, RF, Cleveland Guardians
14. Owen Caissie, RF, Chicago Cubs
15. Thomas Saggese, 2B, St. Louis Cardinals
16. Jordan Lawlar, SS, Arizona Diamondbacks
17. Brooks Lee, SS, Minnesota Twins

Though not quite as elite as the players in Tier 2 on this list, everyone here is a highly regarded prospect -- with all but Saggese ranking in the top half of my Top 100 -- who is a hot start or an injury away from a quick call-up to potentially unlock their All-Star upside in 2024.

DeLauter has a potentially elite combination of hit tool, power and patience, while Caissie has even more power with a bit less on-base potential. Lawlar is a good defensive shortstop, while Lee isn't flashy and is more of a catches-the-ball type at shortstop who may slide to second or third base. They both have comparable above-average offensive upside, with Lawlar's coming as a pure power/speed combo and Lee's game based more on feel. Saggese is also more of a second or third baseman who is aggressive and gets to his power in games -- he gives off some Dan Uggla vibes.


Tier 5: A potential major league closer

18. Jordan Leasure, RHP, Chicago White Sox

A late bloomer who isn't anywhere near my Top 100 list, Leasure is the only player with closer-like upside in the deep universe of potential rookie relievers. He came over from the Dodgers at the deadline with Nick Nastrini in the Lance Lynn/Joe Kelly trade and should be able to help the White Sox before Nastrini.


Tier 6: Prospects with potential to make late-season impact

19. Victor Scott, CF, St. Louis Cardinals
20. Matt Shaw, 3B, Chicago Cubs
21. Jace Jung, 2B, Detroit Tigers
22. Will Warren, RHP, New York Yankees
23. Jairo Iriarte, RHP, Chicago White Sox
24. Tyler Black, 3B, Milwaukee Brewers
T25. Drew Thorpe, RHP, Chicago White Sox
T25. Cade Horton, RHP, Chicago Cubs
T25. Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers

I cheated and took three similar guys to share the last spot, but this whole group will be opening in the upper minors and consists of Top 100 (or one of the first few guys to miss my list) prospects who are very likely to see big league time in 2024.

Black can really hit and has a fantastic approach, while Jung is similar but with more pop. Shaw is also that kind of player but with some speed, and Scott is a plus-plus runner with a throwback game in center field. Keep an eye on Drew Gilbert of the Mets, Dylan Crews of the Nationals and Spencer Jones of the Yankees, three more hitters who were just off this list.

On the pitching side of this tier, Warren has a plus-plus breaking ball, and I think he should break camp with the Yankees. If he doesn't (not being on the 40-man roster yet would be the reason to wait), look for him to be New York's first call-up. Iriarte has a clearer path to major league production after going from San Diego to Chicago in the Dylan Cease trade, which means he could be an option early in the season. Thorpe, Horton and Misiorowski on paper seem like second-half call-up candidates -- though Thorpe could be up sooner after being dealt to the White Sox as part of the Cease trade. I'd bet one of the three has a blazing hot start to the season and forces their way into the conversation earlier than that.

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