Kiley McDaniel, ESPN MLB Insider 46d

MLB Rank 2024: Predicting next top 100 player for every team

MLB, Arizona Diamondbacks, Atlanta Braves, Baltimore Orioles, Boston Red Sox, Chicago Cubs, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Colorado Rockies, Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros, Kansas City Royals, Los Angeles Angels, Los Angeles Dodgers, Miami Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, Minnesota Twins, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Philadelphia Phillies, Pittsburgh Pirates, San Diego Padres, San Francisco Giants, Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, Toronto Blue Jays, Washington Nationals

To coincide with ESPN's ranking of the top 100 players in baseball for 2024, I'm predicting who will be the next ones from each team to make our MLB Rank list.

For the most part, that means they will either make the top 100 list for the 2025 or 2026 season because every team will have players falling in and out of contention every year. It seems silly to project a minor leaguer who is years away from making the big leagues -- though there are circumstances where a prospect makes sense as my pick.

In 2023, 89 players posted 3.0 WAR or higher per FanGraphs, so that's a reasonable line to draw to project someone to make this list. It's important to note that this doesn't mean posting a three-win season, but being perceived as being a three-win talent looking forward, which are two very different things. Only a couple of relievers can get to this leverage-adjusted level of performance (there are just four on this year's list), and even fewer are seen as likely to repeat it. The same goes for players with more limited physical tools. For reference on some of the more unfamiliar names, here is my 2024 top 100 prospects list.


National League

Atlanta Braves

A.J. Smith-Shawver, RHP

The Braves are tied for first -- alongside the Dodgers -- with eight players on this year's top 100 while also having the 28th-ranked farm system, so their pickings are a little slim for this activity. There are four solid candidates with the potential for breakthroughs in 2024, with veteran pitcher Chris Sale, recently acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic and 2023 first-round pick Hurston Waldrep all joining Smith-Shawver as various versions of picks to click in 2024.


New York Mets

Francisco Alvarez, C

Alvarez is an easy one here as the 22-year-old hit 25 homers as a rookie in 2023 while playing the most valuable position on the field. If he can bring his on-base percentage above .300 and continue progressing behind the plate, he could quickly turn into a perennial All-Star. Two prospects (Jett Williams and Drew Gilbert), one recently graduated prospect (Brett Baty) and one veteran (Jeff McNeil) are all also solid candidates.


Philadelphia Phillies

Bryson Stott, 2B

Stott posted 3.9 WAR last season, which landed him in the top 100 players in baseball by WAR, but our voters were still a bit skeptical. His defensive metrics at second base spiked in 2023 after he spent most of his pro career at shortstop, and he was also slightly ball-in-play lucky at the plate. That said, he's 26 years old and should be able to post 3-ish WAR again. Brandon Marsh and Cristopher Sanchez are both good candidates to take another step forward while Andrew Painter is talented enough to jump onto the list if he can pitch in the big leagues this season after returning from Tommy John surgery.


Miami Marlins

Jake Burger, 3B

Sandy Alcantara had a down season in 2023 after winning the Cy Young in 2022 but will miss all of 2024 as he recovers from elbow surgery, so he likely won't make the 2024 list since he won't throw between now and then. A.J. Puk and Edward Cabrera are both solid choices for a step forward in 2024, but Burger was knocking on the door of a 3.0 WAR season in 2023. Plus, the Marlins don't have great prospect choices with a mix of big league readiness and upside.


Washington Nationals

James Wood, RF

Wood is having a loud March after showing real skill the past two seasons, which led me to rank him the 11th-best prospect in baseball in January. He has star potential, but may need a bit more seasoning, or perhaps just patience, before it all clicks in the big leagues. I think the same goes for last year's second overall pick Dylan Crews (fifth on my list of top 100 prospects), though the Nats aren't shy about promoting young prospects to The Show. The best returning big leaguer for this honor is CJ Abrams, who had a solid 2023 but needs to take one more big step forward to be in this conversation.


Chicago Cubs

Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF

I'm a little surprised Ian Happ didn't make it on this year's list, having put up 3.5 and 3.6 WAR in his past two seasons. He's now 29 years old playing on a $61 million contract extension, so he doesn't seem like a great candidate to take enough of a jump forward to change voters' minds next season. The 18th-ranked prospect in baseball, Crow-Armstrong has a better chance, though the risk with him is that in his rookie year he'll be a defensive-oriented center fielder that's more Cristian Pache than Michael Harris II. Seiya Suzuki is another veteran option for this, while rookies/prospects Shota Imanaga, Cade Horton, Matt Shaw and Owen Caissie all have a chance to make the splash necessary to be on next year's list.


Cincinnati Reds

Matt McLain, 2B

The Reds' very young core has a number of candidates to join Elly De La Cruz on next year's list, but I'll go with McLain, who already posted 3.2 WAR last year in 89 games and projects to put up a similar WAR figure this season. There are a number of pitching candidates: Hunter Greene, Graham Ashcraft, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Alexis Diaz and prospect Connor Phillips. Before his positive PED test and subsequent 80-game suspension, Noelvi Marte would've been right next to McLain as a top candidate to make the jump.


Milwaukee Brewers

Jackson Chourio, CF

Whether he puts up gaudy figures as a rookie or not, the Brewers have decided that they think Chourio will be a star player for them for years to come, giving him an eight-year deal in December. He has played six games above Double-A and zero games in the big leagues, so it may not happen right away, but I'm confident Chourio will end up being a standout soon enough. There's a slew of good options in the organization, with returning big leaguers such as William Contreras, Sal Frelick and Freddy Peralta along with other prospects such as Jeferson Quero and Jacob Misiorowski.


Pittsburgh Pirates

Mitch Keller, RHP

The Pirates have three strong candidates in Henry Davis, Paul Skenes and Keller along with two dark horses in Jared Jones and David Bednar. Davis, a former No. 1 overall pick, is showing signs that this could be his breakout season. Skenes, the top pick in last year's draft, is the best-drafted pitching prospect in over a decade and should see big league time this season.

Keller, who just signed a $77 million extension, is 27 years old and coming off a 3.3 WAR-season with markers that there's more in the tank. Jones should get a long look at his big league debut in the Pirates' rotation this season with plus stuff but some command questions, while Bednar will need to post a top-five-reliever-in-baseball season to qualify, but he might do that. I'll lean to Keller since he was so close to making the list, but there's a strong case for all five of these players.


St. Louis Cardinals

Nolan Gorman, 2B

Only four relievers made the list this year (Emmanuel Clase, Devin Williams, Josh Hader, Edwin Diaz), but I think Ryan Helsley may jump into that group, though the Cards have some better candidates. Of the group of intriguing young position players -- Jordan Walker, Masyn Winn, Victor Scott II, Thomas Saggese -- and a couple veterans in Tommy Edman and Willson Contreras, I'll lean to Gorman (who was slightly hit-unlucky in 2023) for the breakthrough this season.


Los Angeles Dodgers

James Outman, CF

Bobby Miller, who was very good last season as a rookie, narrowly lost out to Outman for this pick. We could also go with the Dodgers' best healthy returning starter, as Walker Buehler, Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Emmet Sheehan and Dustin May are all returning from injury. Outman is a slightly better bet as he's a position player with a power/speed combo (23 homers and 16 steals as a rookie) and a platoon advantage at a premium defensive position, where he's a solid average defender.


San Diego Padres

Joe Musgrove, RHP

Musgrove gets a slight nod in my mind over Yu Darvish and Michael King among projected Opening Day rotation members that didn't make this year's top 100. In the minor leagues, Drew Thorpe and Robby Snelling both have a chance to break into the big league rotation this year, while Jackson Merrill looks set to start the season on the big league team, likely playing out of position by moving from shortstop to center field for his potential debut.


Arizona Diamondbacks

Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP

I liked RHP Brandon Pfaadt as a prospect and am encouraged by his late-season improvement, but Rodriguez is a slight favorite here for me given his long track record. Christian Walker has been good and should continue to be, while Alek Thomas has shown he has the makings for a breakout and could take a big step forward in 2024. Jordan Lawlar is a wild card without a clear path to playing time but has All-Star upside.


San Francisco Giants

Jung Hoo Lee, CF

Lee hasn't played a big league game yet, but the Giants gave him a six-year, $113 million deal this winter and I'd expect him to land right in the top-100 conversation at this point next season. I think Patrick Bailey will also be in that conversation and is a near coin flip with Lee. Kyle Harrison and Marco Luciano are two more Rookie of the Year candidates in 2024 who, if they perform well enough for a top-three finish, should also be in contention for next year's list.


Colorado Rockies

Nolan Jones, LF

Jones had a breakthrough 2023 with some career-best power numbers, beating his previous career high of 19 homers in 2018 across both levels of A-Ball by hitting 12 homers in Triple-A and 20 in the big leagues as a rookie. He may regress a bit in 2024 but looks like a solid above-average everyday player regardless. Ezequiel Tovar may also be able to build on a solid rookie season, while some current prospects, headlined by Yanquiel Fernandez and Adael Amador, have a chance to break into the big league team in 2024.

American League

Baltimore Orioles

Jackson Holliday, SS

Holliday, who was my Orioles pick last year to make this year's list, is still a potentially correct pick, as no one from Baltimore's 2023 roster is newly on this year's list, just the newly acquired Corbin Burnes. Holliday, who was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, is the top prospect in baseball. He's hitting well this spring and is expected to be in the Opening Day lineup. The O's had last year's Rookie of the Year in Gunnar Henderson and the second-place finisher the year before that in Adley Rutschman -- and both were the top-rated prospects in baseball before their respective rookie seasons. Grayson Rodriguez and Cedric Mullins are two solid candidates as far as returning big leaguers go, while Coby Mayo and Sam Basallo headline a strong system.


Boston Red Sox

Brayan Bello, RHP

Bello just signed a $55 million extension after 39 big league starts, and he's a popular pick among scouts to take another step forward this season. I think Boston's top prospect, Roman Anthony, may be the next best pick here, as a hot start to the season could put him in line for a second-half debut. Breakout seasons from Jarren Duran or Trevor Story, or a loud rookie season from Ceddanne Rafaela, could make any of them strong candidates.


Toronto Blue Jays

Ricky Tiedemann, LHP

George Springer is a solid bet here, but he's also likely past his best years, so let's look toward the future. Daulton Varsho, Alejandro Kirk or Chris Bassitt could all also be my pick. Bassitt has hovered around the cutoff for this list for years, but as a veteran starter with good-not-great stuff, I'd lean more toward the up-and-coming types or position players. Kirk and Varsho could easily be the right pick if they take a step forward in 2024, but Tiedemann has the feel to me of a pitcher who will come up around midseason, dominate in short stints when needed and never go back to the minors, becoming a cornerstone of the rotation for years to come.


Tampa Bay Rays

Zach Eflin, RHP

Eflin is the best pick in my mind out of a number of strong choices from a typically deep group of talent in Tampa Bay. He posted 4.8 WAR in his first season with the Rays, which has to be among the best seasons of a player who didn't make the following year's MLB Rank list. Isaac Paredes posted 4.3 WAR last season, but he was exceptionally hit-lucky and could be challenged for his third base spot by the third-ranked prospect in baseball (and another strong pick to click), Junior Caminero. For most teams, Curtis Mead, Brandon Lowe, Josh Lowe and Taj Bradley would be the best to choose from, but with the Rays, they're in the next wave.


New York Yankees

Gleyber Torres, 2B

The Yankees are at a bit of an inflection point, with a star-heavy roster coming off a bad season, a new star incoming in Juan Soto, and a bunch of young players they hope to get integrated in 2024 to fill those holes. Torres is a consistent piece of the core who has been hovering around making this list for a couple years and, with his age-27 season also being a walk year, it seems like a good time to bet on him taking a step forward. Austin Wells, Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones and Will Warren are all prospects with a chance to be the pick here. The other group to choose from is veterans who could have bounceback seasons, such as Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and Carlos Rodon.


Cleveland Guardians

Triston McKenzie, RHP

This is a very tough call, with at least a half dozen defensible choices. I lean to McKenzie, though, as he's now healthy and threw 191 1/3 innings with a 2.96 ERA and 190 strikeouts in 2022 despite just average fastball velocity. I think he'll bounce back this season after making just four big league starts in 2023. Tanner Bibee had a breakout rookie season in 2023 and is another strong candidate, along with basically the rest of the rotation in Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. Steven Kwan and brothers Bo Naylor and Josh Naylor have potential to qualify for inclusion on this list, but I'd lean to Chase DeLauter, in terms of best position player candidates, given his superior upside.


Chicago White Sox

Colson Montgomery, SS

Montgomery is my 8th-ranked prospect in the sport and mostly played in Double-A last season, so a 2024 debut seems likely if he keeps hitting as expected, with shortstop now vacated by Tim Anderson. His future infield partners, Yoan Moncada and Andrew Vaughn, are also both candidates for a step forward, as is fireballing righty Michael Kopech.


Detroit Tigers

Tarik Skubal, LHP

Skubal has been close to the WAR cutoff for someone projected to make our top 100, posting 2.9 and 3.3 WAR over the past two seasons but not cracking 120 innings in either campaign. I think he'll do that this season and assert himself in the top 25 or so pitchers in the game.

There are a number of other good candidates here, such as projected rookie starter Colt Keith, who hit 27 homers in the upper minors last year -- some see him hitting 20-plus this season. Jackson Jobe is one of the best pitching prospects in the minors and has true frontline upside, but it's unclear if he'll debut early enough in 2024 to be seen in Skubal's tier -- and someone from this team is very likely to make next season's list. Parker Meadows is a sneaky candidate who I think is probably two years away, while Spencer Torkelson is right there with Keith as a likely challenger to Skubal to be Detroit's next top-100 player.


Kansas City Royals

Cole Ragans, LHP

Ragans has been a revelation since being acquired in the Aroldis Chapman trade last season. For almost all of Ragans' pro career, he has been a touch-and-feel lefty with a good changeup but bad injury luck. Even in his big league debut in 2022, he sat at 91-93 mph. Then, he sat around 95-98 mph as a starter in 2023, and this year, indications are he may even go a bit higher. I think Ragans would comfortably make this list if we redid it in the middle of the 2024 season, but he has only made 12 big league starts as this new version of himself, so it makes sense to wait a bit longer. Ragans is the clear choice here, but keep an eye on a breakout season from Vinnie Pasquantino.


Minnesota Twins

Byron Buxton, CF

Buxton had two consecutive 4 WAR seasons with a $100 million extension mixed in there but then took a step back in 2023 -- though I expect him to regain his former glory. Minnesota has a deep big league squad and one of the deepest farm systems, so there are a lot of interesting picks to click depending on your type of player. Royce Lewis is a former No. 1 overall pick with Buxton vibes to his game, and he's the other clear leading option in my mind. Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien are power-oriented lefties who would be the clear top pick to click for most teams. Brooks Lee leads a strong farm system and is likely to make his big league debut in 2024, though Emmanuel Rodriguez could also seemingly blitz his way to the big leagues in a Caminero-like fashion this season. I also wouldn't count out Jhoan Duran being the type of guy that can become a consensus top-five reliever in the sport, which would get him onto next year's list, too.


Houston Astros

Yainer Diaz, C

I thought Diaz would be good as a rookie and make for a solid, everyday-type catcher, but I didn't see 23 homers in 104 games coming last season, particularly as he was hit unlucky on top of that. With some growth in pitch selection and an expected increase in games caught behind the plate, I think we'll see an increase in his WAR figure, making him an easy inclusion on next year's list. Cristian Javier is a solid bounceback pick and Hunter Brown a solid breakout pick, but Chas McCormick arguably should've been on this list already, so another 3.8 WAR season should get him there.


Texas Rangers

Wyatt Langford, LF

Jacob deGrom is an easy choice here because he's one of the best pitchers in baseball when healthy, and he's on track to return this summer. Even looking like 65% of his normal self in late 2024 may be enough to make next year's list, but I've learned to not take pitcher injury recovery timetables as gospel. In addition, I think Langford is a slam-dunk addition to next year's list as well as a Rookie of the Year frontrunner this season, so I'll give him the nod here. In my mind, he's a better bet to land higher than deGrom, even if narrowly. There's a solid depth to the various candidates here, with veterans such as Nathan Eovaldi or Max Scherzer, breakout picks such as Jonah Heim and Leody Taveras or a prospect such as Justin Foscue.


Seattle Mariners

Bryce Miller, RHP

Miller is sporting a new splitter this spring and that may be the different look he needs to level up once more and join the young arms from the M's on next year's list. Bryan Woo is another young arm that hasn't quite broken through all the way to the top 100 in all of baseball, but he could do that this season. On the position player end, J.P. Crawford seems to be gaining steam while the Mariners farm system has two premium infielders in Colt Emerson and Cole Young, who are more candidates for 2026 than 2025 in my mind.


Los Angeles Angels

Zach Neto, SS

The recent run of high picks from the Angels getting to the big leagues quickly populates this potential breakout list with young players. I think Neto is the best of the bunch, but Nolan Schanuel and Reid Detmers are also good picks, with Ben Joyce more of a longshot and the other recent picks fitting more as role players. The return in the Brandon Marsh trade was Logan O'Hoppe, and he's another leading candidate should he be the primary catcher for the whole 2024 season.


Oakland Athletics

Zack Gelof, 2B

The A's didn't have anyone make the list, and while that isn't super surprising, there are a lot of young players lingering around the big leagues with breakout potential. I'll pick Gelof, as posting a 2.9 WAR in 69 games last season was a nice big league debut without that much luck baked in. Joe Boyle (command as a starter over a long season) and Mason Miller (health) are fireballing righties with electric stuff but who have a clear issue to solve in 2024 to make next year's list, while prospect righty Luis Morales may be a year away from debuting. For the position player long shots, the list is Lawrence Butler, Darell Hernaiz, Denzel Clarke, Shea Langeliers, Esteury Ruiz and Tyler Soderstrom.

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