Ready for some predictions about the upcoming Big East men's basketball season? We assembled four basketball experts and asked them three questions. They've got answers.
1. How much of a step back does Villanova take without Jalen Brunson, Miles Bridges, Donte DiVincenzo and Omari Spellman?
Jeff Borzello: The Wildcats will undoubtedly take a step back, but they're still the heavy favorites in the Big East. Jay Wright always seems to have a long list of breakout players in his back pocket, and veterans Eric Paschall and Phil Booth are going to take big steps forward. Paschall could be in store for an All-American-type season, while Booth is going to become a go-to guy in the backcourt. Incoming five-star freshman Jahvon Quinerly is one of the most dynamic guards we've seen come through Villanova in several years, and there's a host of returning role players. Keep an eye on Albany graduate transfer Joe Cremo, too. He'll bring some toughness and experience. Wright told me recently that roles are up for grabs besides Paschall and Booth, so it might take a few weeks (or months) for Villanova to really hit its stride.
John Gasaway: In retrospect, I can't believe a team as good as Villanova was last season went "just" 14-4 in the Big East and didn't win the regular-season conference title. So, sure, this season's team can come close to that record and possibly improve on that finish, but the reality is you don't lose four guys who were subsequently taken in the first 33 picks of the draft and not take a measurable step back in terms of NCAA tournament potential. Booth and Paschall will keep the Wildcats on an even keel, and maybe Jahvon Quinerly will shine as a true freshman. Villanova has a very high floor as a program, and that's a tribute to Wright, but that floor is where the Cats will likely be, relatively speaking, in 2019.
Myron Medcalf: Well, it's Villanova. Any team not named Kentucky, Duke or Kansas should drop from the top-25 rankings after losing three first-round picks and the Wooden Award winner. But Jay Wright will turn the remnants of that squad into a contender again. Eric Paschall is the next All-American from Villanova. Phil Booth and Collin Gillespie should blossom with bigger roles. And Jahvon Quinerly is a five-star guard and perhaps the new catalyst for this team. Villanova will be great again.
Jordan Schultz: A step back, yes, but not a leap for the defending national champs. Why? Because even though Villanova lost its top four scorers, Jay Wright has done an incredible job of both player development and replenishment of his stock. Five-star point guard Jahvon Quinerly is a maestro with the basketball, capable of breaking down any defense with his smooth handle and tremendous quickness. Quinerly will rely on the two-man game with multidimensional freshman Cole Swider (ranked 34th in the ESPN Top 100) and senior Eric Paschall. Still just 21 years old, Paschall is ready to assume a similar role to that of Omari Spellman, popping out to the 3-point line, banging on the block and rebounding. The Big East is not especially deep in 2018-19, so don't expect anything less than another conference title for Nova Nation.
2. What will we see from the defending Big East champion Xavier Musketeers and new head coach Travis Steele?
Borzello: It worked with Sean Miller and Chris Mack, so when Mack left for Louisville, Xavier's decision to promote longtime assistant Travis Steele seemed like an obvious call. Steele has something of a rebuild on his hands, with Trevon Bluiett, J.P. Macura, Kaiser Gates and Sean O'Mara all departing. But he got to work quickly, landing graduate transfers Ryan Welage, Zach Hankins and Kyle Castlin. Meanwhile, a touted recruiting class in 2017 is now a talented sophomore class led by potential breakout stars Naji Marshall and Paul Scruggs. Will Xavier win the Big East again? No. Are the Musketeers the biggest competition for Villanova? Again, no. But they are still a likely NCAA tournament team, and Steele's early success on the recruiting trail shows that there won't be much of a prolonged drop-off from the Mack era.
Gasaway: We'll see a year that Steele will refer to in the future as the time when players learned their roles and paid their dues. In other words, a second consecutive Big East title is a stretch, and, in fact, getting into the NCAA tournament is the more pressing matter. The things the Musketeers were great at last season -- namely, getting to the line and cleaning the defensive glass -- largely went away with the departing players, at least on paper. Steele has a clean slate to work with at a program with an outstanding pedigree.
Medcalf: We'll see a team trying to regroup after losing its head coach and two stars, Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura. Quentin Goodin is back, but this is a team that will have to fight to finish in the top third of the league.
Schultz: Xavier cannot expect to replace Trevon Bluiett, one of the most accomplished players in program history. In fact, first-year head coach Travis Steele, 36, sees his top three scorers from last season's tournament team all gone. Paul Scruggs is a tough guard who defends and rebounds well for his position. How Steele's first season with the Musketeers goes will be determined by Scruggs' ability to become a focal point of the offense. Despite his averaging just 4.9 points as a freshman, his shooting has drawn rave reviews during camp, and he possesses the physical tools to finish at the rim. Even still, Xavier's 17th NCAA tournament trip in 19 years appears vulnerable.
3. It seems like we hear this every few years, but is St. John's about to take a big step up?
Borzello: Given that I put St. John's in my preseason top 25, I sort of hope so. The Red Storm's talent level has not been in question the past few seasons, but they just haven't been able to put it together consistently. Last year's season was a microcosm of that: consecutive wins over Duke and Villanova immediately following an 0-11 start in the Big East. With Auburn transfer Mustapha Heron eligible, Chris Mullin will have one of the most dangerous backcourts in the country with Heron, Big East Player of the Year favorite Shamorie Ponds and versatile Justin Simon. St. John's has its usual assortment of talented newcomers, so this will come down to whether they figure it out on the offensive end on a nightly basis. Too often last year, the offense boiled down to Ponds or Simon or someone else going one-on-one and hoping for the best. The talent is certainly top-25-worthy, though.
Gasaway: Ponds can play for my team any day of the week, Heron's a big addition, and anyway, the Johnnies are due for naturally occurring "improvement," assuming the Big East no longer hits 40 percent of its 3s against these guys. So why am I having to talk myself into buying the hype? Two concerns: St. John's was drop-dead awful on the glass at both ends of the floor in conference play last season, and Mullins' guys won't be confused with Villanova anytime soon in terms of accuracy from the floor. You can work around either of those issues, but when you carry both of them throughout the season, well, it's a concern.
Medcalf: I'm not sold on it. Heron made 33 percent of his 3-point attempts, and St. John's was one of the worst 3-point-shooting teams in America last season. And Heron didn't have a dramatic impact on Auburn's defense when he was on the floor, per hooplens.com. I think he's a phenomenal scorer. But St. John's had five double-digit scorers a year ago. I'm not convinced that Heron is the player who turns that program around.
Schultz: Yes, this is the breakthrough year for St. John's, thanks in large part to the electric Ponds, whom I watched more than hold his own this summer against prominent NBA players. Ponds, who last season led the Big East in scoring at 21.6 PPG, is the best guard in the country nobody knows about. Don't forget about him torching Duke for 33 points last season. Better yet, he has more help now, thanks to Heron, who led Auburn with a healthy 16.4 PPG scoring average last year. Heron and Ponds form the most dynamic backcourt not just in the league but perhaps in the entire country. They are the main reason Mullin will have the Johnnies dancing for the first time since 2015.