Hate to do it, but the arrival of the holiday season demands our annual "naughty list." Please send any and all complaints to Buddy the Elf.
Arizona: The Wildcats (7-3) were No. 2 on the seed list when the season began, and they sit at what would have been an unthinkable No. 21 in mid-December. Their résumé is pockmarked by three losses in four days at the Battle for Atlantis -- NC State, SMU and Purdue -- and the Pac-12 might not be strong enough to propel the Wildcats back to a No. 1 seed by March.
Projection: Pac-12 regular-season title and No. 3 NCAA seed. Of course, freshman Deandre Ayton might be the best player in the country by then (if not already).Pac-12: All the overachieving in the world by Arizona State can't hide just how ugly the nonconference season has been. In addition to Arizona, USC, UCLA and Oregon have all underachieved. The rest of the conference has suffered losses to the likes of Eastern Washington, Portland State, San Diego, UC Riverside, Central Arkansas and UC Davis. And don't forget Chaminade, which at least was a "road" game.
Projection: Another four-bid season (Arizona, USC, Arizona State and one from among UCLA, Utah and Oregon).Florida: The Gators (6-3) were an optimistic No. 2 seed six weeks ago but trail both Texas A&M and Kentucky in the SEC pecking order. The question going forward is whether Florida belongs with those top two or instead sits with the league's second tier (Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama, Missouri). Fortunately for all parties, the SEC is deeper than at any point since expanding for the 2012-13 season.
Projection: SEC third place and No. 4 NCAA seed. In the meantime, the Gators need to find more shots for Chris Chiozza (.522 on 3-pointers, but only 23 attempts).Cincinnati: The Bearcats (8-2) have lost their only "up" games -- Xavier and Florida -- and don't seem ready to challenge newcomer Wichita State in the American. At least not yet. They also didn't schedule like an NCAA second-weekend team. Cincinnati almost has to win at UCLA on Saturday to have any real chance at a protected seed.
Projection: Second place in the American and No. 6 NCAA seed. Playing home games at Northern Kentucky isn't helping.Atlantic 10: This one hurts, but the reality is the A-10 is going to need some good fortune to avoid being a one-bid league for the first time since 2006. Rhode Island is very good, but NCAA regulars VCU and especially Dayton are subpar this season, and NCAA hopefuls St. Bonaventure and especially Saint Joseph's have been thwarted by injuries. The Bonnies are on the rebound, but the bottom half of the conference isn't lifting anyone else to likely at-large consideration.
Projection: With at least three bids (and as many as six) for the past decade, it's going to be a sad Selection Sunday for Atlantic 10 fans. Someone will need to knock off URI at the conference tournament to keep the league's multibid streak alive.Saint Mary's: The Gaels (8-2) were ranked to start the season and sat atop the West Coast Conference preseason coaches' poll. But a soft schedule has come back to bite them following unexpected losses to Washington State and Georgia at the Wooden Legacy. A potential top 50 game against Dayton has been scuttled by the Flyers being under .500. Without even a top 100 win to this point, Saint Mary's once again finds its NCAA hopes riding on the two or three times it will face Gonzaga in the new year.
Projection: The Gaels have one of the top players in the country in senior center Jock Landale, so look for SMC to somehow sneak into the NCAA tournament.