John Gasaway, ESPN Insider 3y

When Gonzaga and other unbeaten college basketball teams will lose

Men's College Basketball, Gonzaga Bulldogs, Baylor Bears, The Citadel Bulldogs, Boston Univ. Terriers, Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors, Drake Bulldogs, UC San Diego Tritons, Michigan Wolverines, Siena Saints, Alabama A&M Bulldogs, Winthrop Eagles

Thirteen active Division I college basketball teams are undefeated in 2020-21. If that number sounds a little high, keep in mind it includes the likes of American, Loyola (Maryland) and Merrimack, all of which have yet to play their first games this season.

As for the other 10 perfect records, here is when -- or perhaps if -- each of these undefeated teams will lose their first game.

The Citadel Bulldogs

  • Record: 7-0

  • First loss: Saturday vs. Chattanooga (ESPN+, 1 p.m. ET)

The Bulldogs needed a seven-point win at home against North Carolina A&T and a two-point victory at Longwood to remain undefeated to this point. Now, however, Duggar Baucom's team is about to begin play in the rugged Southern Conference.


Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

  • Record: 2-0

  • First loss: This weekend at UC Riverside

The pandemic has placed unique demands, to say the least, on a program located 2,500 miles away from the nearest Division I rival. To date, Hawaii has navigated this state of affairs by playing two games against conveniently located D-II opponents, namely Hawaii Pacific and Hawaii Hilo. This Hawaiian prelude is about to end, however. The Rainbow Warriors will set foot on the mainland for the first time this weekend, when they play back-to-back Friday and Saturday games at UC Riverside.


Drake Bulldogs

  • Record: 13-0

  • First loss: Monday vs. Loyola Chicago

If you're looking for a "national coach of the year so far," you could do worse than Darian DeVries. The former Creighton assistant has his team rocketing up the KenPom rankings to the point where the Bulldogs are verging on bubble territory. Outstanding shooting from both sides of the arc has carried Drake this far, and we now know that the season-opening win at Kansas State was no fluke. Back-to-back Sunday and Monday home games against Loyola Chicago will pit what appear to be easily the two strongest teams in the Missouri Valley Conference against each other. A two-bid Valley is a possibility until further notice.


UC San Diego Tritons

  • Record: 2-0

  • First loss: Jan. 15 at UC Santa Barbara

UC San Diego is still waiting to play its first ever game as a D-I program against a D-I opponent. The Tritons opened with two wins against Saint Katherine, only to have what were to be five subsequent games canceled against Cal Poly, Santa Clara and CSU Northridge. Now, Eric Olen's men are slated to play two road games at UC Santa Barbara next weekend, likely bringing the Tritons' undefeated reign to a close.


Michigan Wolverines

  • Record: 9-0

  • First loss: Jan. 16 at Minnesota (ESPN2, 2 p.m. ET)

As if Michigan's undefeated start wasn't impressive enough, the Wolverines might turn out to be even stronger than they've appeared. To this point in the Big Ten season, opponents have connected on better than 40% of their 3-pointers against UM. That hasn't been a problem for Juwan Howard's men, however, because they hit better than 60% of their 2-point field goals over that same stretch. Nevertheless, running the table in the Big Ten this season would be a tall task even for Gonzaga. Assuming the Wolverines successfully navigate home games against Minnesota and Wisconsin and a road date at Penn State, the return match against the Golden Gophers in Minneapolis next weekend could bring UM its first defeat.


Siena Saints

  • Record: 2-0

  • First loss: Jan. 22 vs. Saint Peter's

Multiple positive coronavirus tests meant that the Saints didn't play their first game until this past Sunday. Carmen Maciariello's team eked out a one-point win at home over Monmouth before recording a more convincing 14-point victory over the Hawks the following evening. The two home games the Saints will play against Saint Peter's later this month will represent the team's toughest test yet in its very young season.


Alabama A&M Bulldogs

  • Record: 2-0

  • First loss: Jan. 23 vs. Southern

A&M has been nothing if not clutch this season, recording a two-point win at Samford as well as a double-overtime victory at home against South Alabama. The home game against Southern later this month will be a challenge, but, should the Bulldogs prevail there, it's possible Dylan Howard's team could remain undefeated all the way to its road date at Texas Southern on the first day of February.


Baylor Bears

  • Record: 9-0

  • First loss: Feb. 2 at Texas

Baylor has been every bit as good as advertised in the preseason, while the rest of the non-Texas Big 12 might turn out to be a bit weaker than expected. Kansas and Texas Tech, for example, have both looked less than mighty at times, and West Virginia's ceiling is yet to be determined now that Oscar Tshiebwe has elected to enter the transfer portal. It's therefore possible the Bears could remain undefeated all the way to their showdown against the Longhorns in Austin next month. That promises to be one spectacular collision.


Winthrop Eagles

  • Record: 9-0

  • First loss: Feb. 11-12 at Radford

You likely haven't heard anything about it yet, but Pat Kelsey's team has a remarkably good chance to run the table in the regular season. On paper, Winthrop is the class of the Big South, and the Eagles will be spared road games against possibly their three most dangerous rivals: Gardner Webb, UNC Asheville and High Point. That leaves back-to-back road games at Radford next month as potentially the toughest challenge Winthrop will face. A perfect regular season is very much in play in Rock Hill.


Gonzaga Bulldogs

  • Record: 10-0

  • First loss: Not before the NCAA tournament, if ever

Statistically speaking, Gonzaga has an extraordinarily strong chance of running the table in the regular season. "Extraordinarily strong" here means about a 1-in-2 probability, by KenPom's lights, but a heads-or-tails shot at regular-season perfection should be rightly understood as an exceedingly rare opportunity in college basketball.

The Bulldogs' path to a perfect regular season reflects two coincidental factors. On the one hand, this might indeed turn out to be Mark Few's best team yet. (Though the 2017 and 2019 teams, to name two, were hardly chopped liver statistically.) At the same time, it's unclear to this point in the season whether the rest of the West Coast Conference will produce a clear at-large-quality rival.

Naturally, if the game scheduled for Dec. 5 against Baylor in Indianapolis had actually taken place, either the Bears or the Zags would be missing from this list. As it is, both the Zags and the Bears still have a shot at a perfect season.

We'll have to see an NCAA bracket before declaring on Gonzaga's chances to become the first undefeated team to win a national title since Indiana in 1976. Who knows, maybe the Bulldogs will be matched with one or two unusually dangerous and underseeded opponents in their own region. Or perhaps Gonzaga will reach a Final Four studded with fellow No. 1 seeds the way undefeated Kentucky did in 2015. One thing is already clear, however. Members of that 1976 group of Hoosiers should be paying very close attention to the Zags in 2021.

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