Football
Nick Said, Special to ESPN 6y

How many points are needed to win the PSL?

The two dropped points by Orlando Pirates on Wednesday night has thrown the Absa Premiership title race firmly back in the favour of Mamelodi Sundowns with five matches to play for the champions elect.

Sundowns are three points ahead of second-placed Pirates with a game in hand and a vastly superior goal-difference, which means it is now very much their title to lose.

If recent history is anything to go by, they likely need eight points from the remaining 15 available to secure the trophy, which would take their season tally to 57, though it could well be a lower amount.

In this feature, KweséESPN highlight what the total number of points needed to lift the Absa Premiership title has been since the league switched to a 30-game season in 2002/03, and only three times in the last 15 years has more than 57 points been required.

If you take the points haul of the second-placed side in each campaign and assume the champions would have a better goal-difference, then that gives you the number of points that were needed for success in each recent edition of the competition.

The most in a season was 63 in 2013/14 when Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs were locked in a two-horse race, with The Brazilians pipping second-placed Amakhosi by two points.

Chiefs needed 60 points in the 2004/05 season and Orlando Pirates the same total in 2010/11.

The last three campaigns have all seen the second-place side amass 57 points on each occasion, although Pirates cannot finish on that mark - the most they can get is 58 points with four wins from their remaining matches, or if they draw one of those, 56 points.

The average number of points gained by the second placed teams in the last 15 years is 56, although on five occasions fewer were needed to be champions.

The least number required was 51 when Sundowns lifted the title in 2006/07, while a year later SuperSport needed just 52.

In fact, between 2005 and 2009, the average number of points required was just 53, four seasons when the Absa Premiership was perhaps at its most competitive.

Latterly, in the four seasons between 2014 and 2017, an average of 59 points has been required, as fewer contenders have emerged and the likes of Sundowns, Chiefs and Wits have surged ahead as the three strongest sides pushing for the title.

As a slightly bizarre aside, only 17 of Sundowns' 49 points this season have come at home, with the other 32, almost double, being gathered on the road.

With only three more games at their own ground, they now cannot avoid becoming the side with the lowest number of home points to win the league title.

The previous lowest mark was 27 set by Pirates (2002/03), Sundowns (2005/06) and SuperSport United (2008/09), but the maximum The Brazilians will manage this season is 26.

Their 12 games to date have resulted in five wins, two draws and five defeats.

POINTS NEEDED TO WIN THE ABSA PREMIERSHIP

The below list shows the champions for each of the 30-game seasons of the South African Absa Premiership as well as the number of points they needed to reach top spot, assuming they had a better goal-difference than the second-placed side.

2002/03: Orlando Pirates - 55

2003/04: Kaizer Chiefs - 57

2004/05: Kaizer Chiefs - 60

2005/06: Mamelodi Sundowns - 54

2006/07: Mamelodi Sundowns - 51

2007/08: SuperSport United - 52

2008/09: SuperSport United - 55

2009/10: SuperSport United - 56

2010/11: Orlando Pirates - 60

2011/12: Orlando Pirates - 56

2012/13: Kaizer Chiefs - 56

2013/14: Mamelodi Sundowns - 63

2014/15: Kaizer Chiefs - 57

2015/16: Mamelodi Sundowns - 57

2016/17: Bidvest Wits - 57

Average number of points needed: 56

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