Football
Graham Parker, U.S. soccer writer 7y

New York Red Bulls season, playoff run could pivot on winning U.S. Open Cup

The New York Red Bulls have a date with history this week as they attempt to lift their first trophy in knockout play. Nobody's doubting what winning the U.S. Open Cup would mean to an organization whose two Supporters' Shields in three years remain an underrated achievement, but never mind the broader historic symbolism: This Wednesday's final against Sporting Kansas City (9 p.m. ET, ESPN2) has the potential to send the Red Bulls' current season in one of two directions.

As if to illustrate how finely balanced New York's destiny looks right now, the team is coming into the final on the back of four straight draws, including score draws on the road with FC Dallas and Chicago Fire, the first draw in a New York derby and Sunday's frustrating attempts to get past Philadelphia's inspired goalkeeper, Andre Blake.

Looked at in one light, the run shows a team grinding out results against some tricky opponents -- Chicago in particular has been great at home this year -- having lost only one game in its past six and advancing to the Open Cup final with a gutsy win from 2-0 down on the road in Cincinnati. Or, looked at another way, the team's only win in its past seven MLS games came against a faltering Orlando at Red Bull Arena and now it is grinding its gears right at the point when teams need them to be meshing for postseason runs.

A loss Wednesday could turn a difficult sequence into a fatal spiral.

The cup final could come down to a single scoring opportunity. Chances are that, even against a tight Sporting KC defense, the Red Bulls will have a decent chance at some point in the first half at Children's Mercy Park. If Bradley Wright-Phillips scores, for example, the team's confidence in their own character could carry them through. But if he or another key player misses that chance, as Sacha Kljestan missed an early penalty in the second leg of last season's playoff series against Montreal, there's a long seam of disappointing historical memories to afflict the Red Bulls. Though it far predates the current crop of players, it's been passed on as something of a MetroStars birthright.

That said, Jesse Marsch has built a certain resourceful toughness into his team, different from the pure cussedness Mike Petke once instilled in a famously flaky side. They've needed it this year, too. Without Dax McCarty's constant in-game tuning of the midfield engine, the other players have had to dig deeper and the coach has had to rethink his system. Even when the team has looked like a fluent force, like when it won all five games (MLS and Open Cup) in July, it has looked like the result of hard-won experience rather than smooth peak efficiency. And frankly, in a Cup game or a playoff run, the former might serve them better.

Wednesday will be important, then, but perhaps when the story of this season comes to be written for New York, there'll be another inflection point to consider, potentially just as important as the semifinal comeback or the final at Children's Mercy Park. And just as last year's regular season pivoted on the first-ever loss to NYCFC, a result that kick-started an unbeaten run for the remainder of the year, a loss against New York's rivals across the river may have changed the trajectory of the season decisively.

On Aug. 6, the Red Bulls lost a 3-2 thriller at Yankee Stadium. It was chiefly memorable for a BWP brace being outdone by David Villa's first MLS hat trick, but it also saw Daniel Royer leave the field with what initially looked like a season-ending injury. Royer had come into the game as a player of the month and as one of the key catalysts of New York's attack in its new 5-3-2 shape. He'd given the Red Bulls another angle of attack, one that looked to be setting them up nicely for the playoffs, where recent history has had them struggling when Plan A fails. When he went down, it was back to a more attritional and predictable New York attack that tried to overwhelm opponents who'd learned to play the odds against them and wait for counters.

That was the story again Sunday, as the Union weathered the New York storm before producing some dangerous counters in the second half. New York should have won easily but could easily have lost; in both shape and outcome, the game had something of the feel of their more frustrating playoff adventures. The big players were rested with Wednesday in mind, but even so, it was easy to see how New York missed the extra dimension of Royer.

The mixed news for New York is that Royer could be back for the final, though the likelihood of Marsch starting a player so short of match fitness seems remote. In fact, if Royer appears in any capacity, the chances are it's because something has gone wrong and Marsch is making a Hail Mary pass.

But it's not impossible. New York is coming into this game with its fortunes finely balanced, after all, and one finish or one decisive substitution could tip its destiny decisively not just in this game but for the remainder of the season.

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