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Rumours rated: Aubameyang-Arsenal, Dzeko-Chelsea, Fred-Man City

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Giroud-Auba swap not a win-win for Arsenal and Dortmund (2:09)

Amid speculation Arsenal will send Olivier Giroud to Dortmund for Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Steve Nicol explains why Giroud could end up as the happiest of the four parties. (2:09)

With one week to go in the transfer window, David Amoyal sorts through the speculation and rates how likely the rumoured moves are to take place.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang to Arsenal: 60 percent

The Gabonese striker has agreed to terms on a contract through 2021 with an annual salary of 10 million net. Borussia Dortmund would prefer to keep him until the end of the season but will likely accept an offer of around 60 million. To lower the asking price, Arsenal could insert Olivier Giroud into the deal, although it appears the German club's preference is to sign Chelsea's Michy Batshuayi.

Michy Batshuayi to Borussia Dortmund: 35 percent

With Aubameyang's move to Arsenal progressing, BVB have made the recruitment of Batshuayi a top priority. The Belgian international is open to the move -- he sees Dortmund as the ideal place to relaunch his career -- but Chelsea are still trying to use him as an asset in the Dzeko deal. As an alternative, Dortmund have also made an inquiry for Sampdoria's Duvan Zapata.

Edin Dzeko to Chelsea: 70 percent

Chelsea are negotiating the details of this transfer and Dzeko could join Antonio Conte's squad with Roma teammate Emerson Palmieri for a fee of around 50m euro. Chelsea would like to include Batshuayi in the deal but Roma aren't particularly interested in him; their preference is to acquire more of a back-up type so that Patrik Schick has no significant competition as the starting central striker.

Fred to Manchester City: 65 percent

The Premier League leaders are focused on giving Pep Guardiola another option upfront. Fred has already agreed to terms and is pushing for the move to take place in January; while Shakhtar would prefer to keep him at least until the summer, given they're in the Champions League Round of 16, the deal will likely be reached before next Wednesday's transfer deadline for around 40m euro.

Aymeric Laporte to Manchester City: 55 percent

City had previously considered signing Laporte in 2016 and, considering the recent changes to the valuation of top defenders, his 65m euro exit clause appears much more reasonable especially when you consider he's still only 23 years old. The Etihad Stadium side are strongly considering triggering that clause this month to give their manager a player he covets.

Daniel Sturridge to Inter: 45 percent

Inter have already reached an agreement with the England foward, but are far apart from Liverpool regarding the option-to-buy on the loan deal. Sturridge's contract expires in 18 months and, while the Italian club have offered around 25 million, the Reds want 40m. Roma could also become a factor since they could look to Sturridge as a potential replacement for Dzeko.

Malcom to Tottenham: 15 percent

Spurs have an opening after Arsenal pursued other priorities but the odds of them landing the talented Brazilian attacker in January decreased significantly once Bordeaux appointed Gustavo Poyet as manager. He demanded that his new club keep their most talented player until the end of the season and, at the moment, it looks like Bordeaux will grant his wish.

Mario Balotelli to Juventus in summer: 10 percent

Balotelli's contract with Nice expires at the end of the season and Juventus have signed many a free agent down the years, but the odds of him joining the Serie A champions are low considering their stance toward eccentric players. Balotelli's agent Mino Raiola has a great relationship with Juventus, but even that likely won't be enough to get his client to Turin.

Jack Harrison to Stoke: 40 percent

Having impressed with New York City FC and been capped at Under-21 level by England in October, Harrison could have an opportunity to play in the Premier League with the club from the city of his birth. A bid of around $3m was rejected but Stoke have increased their offer to $4.5m and a deal could be completed before the transfer window closes.

Eder to Crystal Palace: 35 percent

Palace sporting director Dougie Freedman travelled to Italy earlier this week to negotiate with Inter and a deal could be reached as either a straight sale or a loan with option to buy, set at around 10m euro. However, Eder has turned down transfers in the past and has some rich proposals from China, so the biggest hurdle will likely be getting him to agree personal terms.