The Detroit Pistons pulled off a blockbuster with the LA Clippers early Monday evening, acquiring Blake Griffin in a multiplayer deal. Here are the details:
Pistons get: Blake Griffin, Willie Reed, Brice Johnson
Clippers get: Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, first-round pick, second-round pick
Here's what it means from a fantasy perspective:
Lob City moves to Motown
The Pistons' offense now revolves around Griffin and Andre Drummond, a big man combo with a lot of similarities to what we saw out of Griffin and DeAndre Jordan for the Clippers. Both Drummond and Jordan are huge, athletic, traditional centers that operate out of the paint and dominate the boards. This season, Jordan is averaging 22.5 rebounds per 100 possessions (6.6 offensive rebounds, 15.9 defensive rebounds), while Drummond is averaging 22.9 rebounds per 100 possessions (7.5 offensive rebounds, 15.4 defensive rebounds). And like Jordan, Drummond is excellent at finishing lob passes with dunks, so Drummond and Griffin can re-form Lob City in the Motor City.
However, Drummond is a more dynamic offensive player than Jordan ever has been.
Jordan is excellent at being a garbage man, finishing lobs, putbacks or pick-and-roll dives to the rim with dunks; but he's not someone the Clippers have ever run their offense through. Jordan has little back-to-the-basket game on offense, and he also isn't much of a passer (1.8 assists to 2.6 turnovers per 100 possessions). This makes Jordan an efficient finisher but not much of an individual threat.
Meanwhile, Drummond is a key offensive cog for the Pistons, netting 5.8 assists to 4.2 turnovers per 100 possessions as one of the main decision-makers in the offense. Drummond also is a more dynamic defensive player, at least as far as being active around the rim and in the passing lanes, averaging 2.3 steals and 2.1 blocks per 100 possessions, as compared to Jordan's 0.7 steals and 1.5 blocks.
Put this together, and the new-look Pistons' front line is actually more dynamic than what we saw with Lob City in L.A. Drummond will continue to vacuum the glass, which means that Griffin is unlikely to improve much on his 7.9 rebounds per game (11.2 rebounds per 100 possessions) that he was averaging for the Clippers. Griffin also is a proven decision-maker and offensive cog; however, he currently is averaging 5.4 assists per game (7.7 assists per 100 possessions) from the power forward spot. This tells me two things about the Pistons' new offense:
Griffin and Drummond should be able to play the two-man game, running a lot of high-low action, with each drawing attention and facilitating for the other off the pass.
The Pistons' perimeter players will have less playmaking responsibility than ever before, meaning that they can get positive minutes from 3-and-D wings and/or scoring combo-type lead guards without needing as much floor generalship.
This is important, because with Harris and Bradley being sent to L.A., the Pistons are now full of 3-point shooting wings and combo lead-guard types. Reggie Bullock (1.5 3PG, 44 3FG%, available in 98.5 percent of leagues), Stanley Johnson (1.0 3PG, 28 3FG%, available in 98.8 percent of leagues), Anthony Tolliver (1.7 3PG, 40 3FG%, available in 99.5 percent of leagues) and rookie Luke Kennard (1.1 3PG, 43 3FG%, available in 98.3 percent of leagues) are now the four most tenured wings on roster, and all of them have the 3-ball as a big part of their games.
All four of them likely will take on larger roles, and the three shooting 40 percent or better from behind the arc all have reasonable upside to knock down more than two treys per game moving forward. Barring more moves, the Pistons' wings suddenly look to be solid sources of 3-pointers as fantasy role players.
This also frees up Ish Smith and Reggie Jackson (when he gets healthy) to be what they truly are: scoring guards in point guard bodies. Smith will have a bit of trouble taking advantage of these extra opportunities because he's not a shooter, but Jackson has made at least one 3-pointer at between 33 percent and 36 percent from behind the arc five times in his career. Jackson averaged almost 19 points in 2015-16, his first full season in Detroit as a score-first guard in a role that he might be able to reprise with the new-look Pistons.
Griffin also is strong at running the pick-and-roll/pop game. Per Second Spectrum, he has set 561 direct picks that have generated 0.934 points/direct pick this season, a volume and scoring efficiency that rivals new teammate Drummond (876 direct picks, 0.971 points/direct pick) but dwarfs any other Pistons player (none other set more than 258 direct picks, and no rotation player's picks produced more than 0.903 points/direct pick). Jackson, meanwhile, is very adept as the ball handler in the pick-and-roll/pop game, producing 0.985 points/direct pick as the ball handler on 666 direct picks. Smith is less so, but he is still effective at 0.909 points/direct pick on 518 direct picks.
Combine all this and, barring further trades, the fantasy news out of Detroit is good with this move. Griffin's numbers should look similar to what we saw in Los Angeles, with perhaps a slight uptick in scoring opportunities (minus a dominant teammate scorer like Lou Williams) but similar rebounding and assist numbers. Drummond's numbers also likely won't change much, though the attention that Griffin draws and the high-low game could lead to more efficient scoring opportunities for the big man. The wings on the team all project to potentially rosterable 3-point role players, while Smith and, eventually, Jackson should see an uptick in scoring, a possible downtick in assists but an overall more effective offensive game with more ability to run their preferred pick-and-roll/pop game and better scoring opportunities.
Uncertainty in La La Land
After the trade, if no other moves were made, the Clippers would likely start Milos Teodosic, Bradley, Harris, Montrezl Harrell and Jordan, with Williams as the All-Star-caliber sixth man. Danilo Gallinari and Austin Rivers also have to be factored into the primary playing time mix when healthy, with Wesley Johnson and Tyrone Wallace hanging around the fringes, ready to contribute in case of injury. Marjanovic would be the big question mark, as he only played in 19 games for Detroit this season but did show some intriguing upside when playing.
Considering that Griffin missed a big chunk of this season due to injury, on paper that team likely has an output level similar to what we've seen from the Clippers for most of the season. Harris and Bradley likely would have the space to contribute numbers very similar to what they did in Detroit, Williams would revert back to the primary option on the team off the bench, Jordan would continue his nightly double-doubles and the team would play to their level.
Harrell (available in 92.6 percent of leagues) would likely be the biggest winner of this deal in the short term, as he went through a nine-game stretch in January when bigs were out with injury during which he averaged 14.9 points, 63.5 FG%, 6.1 rebounds and 1.7 combined steals/blocks in 24.8 minutes per game. On this team, he would get the chance to see if he could continue that level of production and perhaps even increase it, with more available minutes.
But the Clippers are reportedly still shopping Williams and Jordan, and any subsequent move would completely change the forecast. For now, outside of Harrell and Williams, everyone projects to similar value. But moving forward, there's just no way to know.