Fantasy Sports
Kevin DeVries 5y

Diagnosing Tottenham's fantasy soccer struggles this season

Fantasy, Fantasy Soccer

Looking at the table, you'd hardly know anything was amiss at Tottenham. They currently occupy fourth place in the Premier League and are just one point off their best-ever Premier League start.

That's even more impressive when you consider that nine of Tottenham's 12 World Cup players have suffered injuries this season and that Spurs failed to add a single player in the summer transfer window. The job manager Mauricio Pochettino has done this season begins to look nigh miraculous when you consider all of the context.

Naturally, the style of play at the club has had to change to counteract these issues. Gone are the days of the high-tempo, high-press football that has been the trademark of the Argentine since his arrival in North London. With players seemingly taking turns being injured, Pochettino has had to make loads of formation and personnel adjustments just to field a competitive side every week.

To that point, Tottenham have already used as many different formations (five) as they used all of last season! Just in attack there have already been eight different combinations of players used directly behind Harry Kane through their 12 league matches. This constant shifting and rotation has made it difficult for players to get comfortable in their role and/or position which has negatively impacted their communication, style, and quality of play.

These problems are the most troubling and apparent in the final third. Tottenham have created just 105 chances this season, which is not only the sixth worst in the league, but also their worst as a club through 12 matches in the Pochettino era. While it would be easy to chalk those issues up to the injuries and absences of Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli, it's actually more troubling than that.

Eriksen and Alli, who have so helped to define Tottenham's attack in recent seasons, have both posted club-lows in both goals and assists per 90 minutes thus far, and have contributed to just three total goals this season (one goal and two assists). For context, last season Eriksen had a goal and two assists after just four weeks. Without these two delivering their usual creative influence for Tottenham this season, the club turned to Lucas Moura to fill the creative void.

In real life, Lucas has been a dynamic addition in attack but in fantasy ... not so much. Lucas is the only Spurs midfielder to have played in every match, yet he's failed to register a single assist. He has provided four goals, but aside from that, the Brazilian has done precious little, ranking outside the top 25 in literally every other scoring category. All in all, these three Spurs midfielders have the three lowest point per game averages in their tier, which should tell you all you need to know about their fantasy potential at the moment.

Because of these midfield issues, star striker Harry Kane has had to drop back in the formation in order to be even moderately involved in play. This deeper role has it's advantages as he's seen a significant increase in passes and touches compared to last season, but the percentage of those touches in the box has fallen by nine percent.

Naturally, the less you're in the box, the less likely it is that you score, and that's exactly what we've seen from Kane thus far. Despite finally managing to score in August, his six goals are actually behind his goal tally after week 12 last season (eight). His total shots are down as well, which you could chalk up to his change in role, but here's where things start to get interesting.

While his shots on target are similarly down compared to previous seasons, he actually leads the league in them at the moment with 20. Also, his 50 percent shot accuracy is higher than he's finished in any Premier League year save for 2016-17. So, while Kane is indeed taking fewer shots, his shot selection has actually improved this year ... which is promising, but also necessary due to the reduction in service provided to him.

The limited amount of chances created and the knock-on effect of Kane scoring fewer goals goes a long way to explaining why Tottenham are off to their worst start in goal scoring since ... last year. In other words, Tottenham as a whole aren't struggling to find the net ... but their fantasy stars are.

Last season, just seven players had directly contributed to a goal at this stage in the season. This year, that number has doubled to 14. So, while the club is still scoring at the same rate as last season, the halcyon days wherein Kane, Eriksen, or Alli took part in nearly every goal, are seemingly over. This is further evidenced by the fact that this season those three have been involved in just 50 percent of Tottenham's goals, after having been a part of a staggering 154 of the previous 160.

The theme of rotation, regression, and injuries to star players continues on into the defense as well. Despite that, Spurs continue to perform well at the back on the whole. Pochettino has been forced to use five different center back combinations already, but Tottenham have worked themselves into the top five in both goals allowed (10) and clean sheets (five). The recent return to the 4-2-3-1 has certainly improved things as Tottenham have conceded in just two of their past five matches but, unfortunately, defenders don't earn points for clean sheets in the ESPN game. With that avenue to points closed, Spurs do not have a single defender in the top 50 of the ESPN game. Yes, Trippier included.

The English right back saw a massive boost in popularity after his efforts at the World Cup this summer, but his name recognition is currently far greater than his fantasy value. While Trippier does lead Tottenham in assists, chances created, and tackles, he sits 15th or worse at each of those statistics when compared to the rest of the league. Considering he fails to make a blip in any of the other defensive metrics, it's of little surprise that he boasts the joint-worst point per game tally at his position (10.7). Oh, and the player he's level with? None other than teammate Toby Alderweireld.

Eight of the top ten defenders in our game are center backs, yet Alderweireld is the lowest scoring central defender in his tier, and would only be fourth-best if he dropped to Tier 2. Like Trippier, the Belgian leads the club in several statistics, but being solid in four scoring categories at the expense of the other 11 does not an elite fantasy player make. He is consistent, having scored 10 or more points seven times this season, but he lacks the upside to warrant his selection over the likes of Marcos Alonso or Aymeric Laporte on a weekly basis.

There is one Tottenham player whose star shines just as bright as it has in recent years, though: Hugo Lloris.

While he makes the odd error here or there, he has consistently been a top-level goalkeeper for the past three seasons. While obviously very talented, he also greatly benefits from his situation at Spurs. Unlike other top clubs, Tottenham's defense allows enough shots through for Lloris to pad his save numbers, while also being solid enough to earn a respectable amount of clean sheets. Despite the revolving door of players in front of him, this trend has continued in 2018-19 to the effect of Lloris boasting the best points per game average among goalkeepers to make more than two starts (15.8) and the fourth-best overall! So, if you were to trust any Tottenham player in fantasy, it should be Lloris.

As for the outfield players, we need to take a wait-and-see approach. The club is overperforming compared to a lot of its underlying numbers, but is somehow right in line with the rate of goals scored and conceded since Pochettino arrived.

So, is it more likely that Tottenham's positive results regress to their current performance level, or will the performances rise and match the standard set by the coach during his successful spell in charge? It's hard to say for now and, until things become more clear, it's probably best to avoid Tottenham players in fantasy.

^ Back to Top ^