Fantasy Sports
Kieran Darcy, ESPN Staff Writer 6y

Being a flexible ESPN Fantasy Soccer manager is the key to success

Fantasy, Fantasy Soccer

In my first Tuesday strategy column for ESPN Fantasy Soccer last week, I urged you to not just focus on goals and assists.

So, naturally, this week I'm going to write about ... goals and assists!

More specifically, I'm going to write about Eden Hazard's hat trick in Chelsea's 4-1 win over Cardiff City, and Ryan Fraser's two goals and an assist in Bournemouth's 4-2 win over Leicester City. The play of these players is the biggest reason why I lost my first game in our ESPN Premier League "Experts" fantasy league.

I wasn't shocked that Hazard had a big day against Cardiff -- in fact, I recommended him at the Tier 1 Midfielder position and had him on my team. The problem was that I didn't captain him. When a player goes off like that, and your opponent has him captained but you don't, you're in deep trouble.

Hazard accumulated 45.6 fantasy points this past week. When you double that haul and make it 91.2 points from one player alone, it's an extremely difficult -- if not impossible -- hurdle to overcome.

My captain, Sergio Agüero, did just fine. He had an assist and accrued 15.0 fantasy points, despite coming off in the 54th minute due to a knock. It just goes to show how important your captaincy decision can be.

But also, don't overthink it -- there's always going to be an element of good luck involved, especially in a sport like soccer, where so few goals are scored. This was only Hazard's second hat trick since he joined Chelsea in 2012. Agüero has had nine hat tricks with Manchester City -- the second-most in Premier League history -- including one already this season.

The more interesting situation involves Fraser, who had the second-highest fantasy point total in the Premier League this week. Fraser finished with 34.7 points, yet was only a Tier 3 Midfielder -- if you had him on your team, you also had a huge edge.

Avid Premier League watchers would have known Fraser was certainly capable of scoring a goal. In fact, he scored in Bournemouth's 2-0 win over Cardiff in the opening weekend of the season. But a brace, plus an assist, was extremely fortunate. Fraser only had five goals and three assists in 26 league games for Bournemouth last season, and three goals and five assists in 28 games the season before.

Still, I obviously wish I had given him more consideration when setting my lineup. Fraser was clearly in good form, also picking up an assist in a 2-1 win at West Ham in the second week of the season. I went with a more conservative choice, selecting Wolves' Ruben Neves as my Tier 3 Midfielder -- a player who also had a goal and an assist in the first four games of the season, but also one who is much less attack-minded than Fraser.

Neves is a central midfielder who will generally complete lots of passes but not be one of his team's chief goal threats. Fraser plays out wide, and his primary purpose is to create chances and score goals.

It wasn't a terrible decision. Neves put up a decent score (10.0 points) and actually had five chances created -- tied with Bernardo Silva for the most in the league this week.

However, I played it safe and paid for it, especially given that I had also selected Jorginho as my Tier 2 Midfielder -- another central operator who's not much of a threat to score goals. Jorginho continues to be the league leader in passes completed, but he amassed a relatively meager 8.1 fantasy points against Cardiff.

The lesson here, for me, is don't play it too safe. Yes, Tier 2 and Tier 3 Midfielders probably aren't going to score a lot of goals. I wouldn't be surprised if Fraser's points haul this past week ends up being the best by a Tier 3 Midfielder all season.

But you probably don't want to go with safe choices in both those spots in any given week. Roll the dice in at least one of those positions and pick a more attack-minded player going up against a relatively easy opponent.

This also brings to mind another piece of advice. Don't be afraid to make changes to your lineup over the course of the weekend, depending on how your matchup is going.

I had a bit of a dilemma this past Sunday. I was down pretty big in my matchup, thanks to Hazard. But my opponent's players all had played on Saturday, and I still had one spot open in my team -- my Tier 3 Midfielder, since I was planning to go with Neves and Wolves' game was on Sunday.

Given that I had to make up a large deficit, I thought about switching from Neves to another player who was more of a goal threat. Unfortunately, my options were pretty limited. I was choosing from Tier 3, there were only three games remaining, and all the top teams had already played on Saturday.

The best option, in my mind, was pivoting from Neves to one of his teammates, Diogo Jota. Jota had done very little fantasywise in Wolves' first four games of the season, but he did score 17 goals for them in the Championship last year. Neves only scored six goals last season.

In the end, I decided to stick with Neves -- Jota was never going to accumulate enough points to overcome my deficit. And I still had a good chance to finish in the top half of my league this week, in terms of total fantasy points. Remember, you get three points for a win, but you also get a point for finishing in the top half of your league each week, and those bonus points could be very important in the standings come the end of the season.

I did get that bonus point, but the lesson still applies -- don't be afraid to make changes. If you ever find yourself in a situation like I was in, where your opponent is ahead, but you have a chance to catch him and you still have open slots in your team -- think about switching to a more likely goal scorer, if there is one available.

That goes the other way, too. If you're ahead in your matchup, you might want to switch to a more conservative choice in one of your tiers to try to preserve your lead. 

That's one of the cool things about ESPN Fantasy Soccer -- the flexibility. You don't just have to set your roster before the first game of the week begins and then cross your fingers and hope for the best. You can check the lineups an hour before each game and make adjustments if need be -- whether it's because someone is a surprise omission from the starting XI, or because you need to make up a deficit or protect a lead.

Being a flexible fantasy manager is the key to success.

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