Fantasy Football
Andre Snellings, ESPN 5y

Fantasy football insights with Watson for Week 11

Fantasy NFL, Fantasy, NFL

Last season, IBM introduced IBM Insights, a tool that uses Watson AI to analyze thousands of fantasy articles, blogs, websites and podcasts and provide support data to assist with fantasy football decisions.

Watson outputs an estimated scoring range for each player and projects the chances that a player will exceed the upside estimate (e.g. "boom") or fall short of the low end estimate (e.g. "bust") in any given week.

For those who are looking for a tool to concentrate various web opinions into one location in order to help make roster moves, IBM offers Watson's Insights as an unsupervised, quantitative supplement to the more in-depth, personalized analysis that you would normally expect from an ESPN analyst.

The following article points out a few notable insights from Watson for Week 11 of the NFL season, as of early Friday afternoon.


Tight end decisions

There are 12 NFL games on Sunday and Monday this week, but due to byes and injuries there is a lack of front-end tight ends available. Rob Gronkowski, George Kittle and David Njoku are all on bye, while Jimmy Graham already played (and injured his thumb) on Thursday. The 20th-ranked tight end in this week's IBM Insights Weekly Rankings, Cameron Brate, actually ranks 248th overall in those rankings and thus wouldn't be expected to even be in lineups in most 10- or 12-team leagues. Let's probe through this week's available tight ends to find players that IBM Insights ranks as startable in a thin week.

Projections higher than rank

Jack Doyle, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

  • Weekly rank 110, 11th among eligible TEs

  • High projection: 15.9 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 5.0 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.21

  • Bust chance: 0.21

Doyle's high projection of 15.9 fantasy points is the sixth-highest among eligible tight ends this week, interestingly ahead of teammate Eric Ebron's 15.1. IBM Insights is predicting Doyle to have the better week of the Colts tight ends, though both have high boom and bust scores to indicate the volatility in a two-tight-end set in a high-powered offense where either or both could have big games in any given week.

Watson's Insight: Doyle is projected as one of the elite tight end options this week, but he is a bit of a risk as a boom-or-bust prospect.

Jeff Heuerman, Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Weekly rank 210, 17th among eligible TEs

  • High projection: 15.1 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 5.1 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.23

  • Bust chance: 0.21

Heuerman got off to a slow start this season with only 32 total yards and zero touchdowns through the first three games, but has 87 yards and two touchdowns during the last two weeks and looks like an early beneficiary of the Demaryius Thomas trade. Insights projects him in the top 12 among point totals for tight ends, despite still being ranked outside of the top 200 overall this season.

Watson's Insight: Heuerman has had a slow season but has picked it up of late and has been projected by Insights with starter totals this week.

Most likely to go boom/Least likely to bust

C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

  • Weekly rank 199, 16th among eligible TEs

  • High projection: 15.1 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 5.1 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.24

  • Bust chance: 0.06

Watson's Insight: Uzomah projects with solid upside, with a much better chance to exceed that upside than to fail to reach his floor projection this week, according to Insights.

Evan Engram, New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Weekly rank 116, 12th among eligible TEs

  • High projection: 15.3 fantasy points

  • Low projection: 4.8 fantasy points

  • Boom chance: 0.24

  • Bust chance: 0.09

Engram was drafted early by many who expected him to break out, but he has battled injury and not quite lived up to expectation. Nevertheless, he has at least 45 yards and/or a touchdown in three of his last five starts. This week he faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 31st in the NFL against opposing tight ends.

Watson's Insight: Engram has explosive upside this week against one of the worst defenses in the NFL, and IBM projects him to be worthy of a starting slot despite his struggles this season.

Insights provided by IBM Watson in partnership with ESPN

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