And these players have exceeded their OFP by the largest margin and are thus candidates to see a dip in fantasy production moving forward:
Will Falcons QB Matt Ryan repeat his incredible 2016 season? He's certainly well on his way. In 2016, Ryan posted a ridiculous 124 FORP (430 fantasy points, 306 OFP). Through Week 6 this season, he's "on pace" for a 120 FORP (403 points, 283 FORP). Obviously we can't count on this level of efficiency moving forward, but even with a return to earth statistically, Ryan's OFP ranks sixth at the position. Fantasy's No. 2 scoring quarterback can afford some regression to the mean and will still carry QB1 value.
Dolphins WR Albert Wilson is fantasy's No. 20 scoring wide receiver despite seeing the field on only 61 percent of the Dolphins' pass plays this season. His OFP ranks 52nd at the position. As boom or bust as they come, Wilson has finished 37th or worse in four of six outings (50th or worse in three), but top-10 in the other two games. He has four touchdowns, but a 0.7 OTD (that 3.3 gap is fourth-largest in the league). Wilson's receiving touchdowns have required post-catch runs of 24, 43, 72 and 78 yards, which is as hard to believe as it is unsustainable. The total OTD on those three plays was ... 0.03. Incredibly, he's seen one target inside the opponent's 13-yard line. This is one of the easiest regression-to-the-mean calls in a decade, though Wilson will be on the flex radar if the Dolphins trade DeVante Parker.
Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett is another wide receiver unlikely to come close to sustaining his current production. Lockett sits 56th at wide receiver in OFP, but five touchdowns have him sitting 19th in fantasy points. The 3.4 gap between his touchdown total and OTD (1.6) is third largest in the league. Lockett has hauled in all three of his end zone targets, but has seen only one additional target inside the opponent's 10-yard line. His other scores required runs of 10 and 25 yards. Lockett entered 2018 with a grand total of 10 offensive touchdowns in three NFL seasons, including four the past two seasons. The No. 2 target in an extremely run-heavy offense who is limited to a 19 percent target share, Lockett is a player to try to trade this week.
Deep dive
Bears WR Taylor Gabriel was discussed in this column prior to Chicago's Week 5 bye, but this past Sunday is yet further evidence that he's arguably the most underrated asset in fantasy. Gabriel cleared 100 receiving yards for the second consecutive game and is now handling a 22 percent target share for the season (7.0 per game). Mitchell Trubisky's No. 2 target has at least five targets and four receptions in each of Chicago's five games. Available in nearly two-thirds of ESPN leagues, he should be scooped up and considered a fringe WR3 option against New England.
Colts RB Marlon Mack was finally healthy for a full game on Sunday and that was enough to allow him to easily lead the Indianapolis backfield in carries (and efficiency). Mack carried the rock 12 times for 89 yards and was targeted twice. Mack's strong effort figures to solidify his role as the top ball carrier in an offense averaging a very strong 3.0 touchdowns per game this season. Note that while Nyheim Hines was limited to three carries and three targets, he did out-snap Mack 29 to 23 and will continue to play a sizable role in passing situations. Mack is available in 74 percent of ESPN leagues. Scoop him up and consider him a flex option against the Bills this week and going forward.
Cowboys WR Cole Beasley broke out for nine catches, 101 yards and two touchdowns on 11 targets against Jacksonville in Week 6. QB Dak Prescott admitted after the game that the team planned to attack Jaguars' slot CB Tyler Patmon and the plan obviously worked. Despite the strong effort, Beasley shouldn't be considered a reliable weekly starter just yet. He totaled 17 catches for 193 yards and no scores on 24 targets during Weeks 1-5, which was barely off a 2017 target pace that led to 36 catches on 62 targets for 314 yards and four scores in 15 games.
Needless to say, the Redskins' passing game has been a disappointment. Alex Smith posted an 11th-place fantasy outing in Week 1, but hasn't notched a finish better than 16th in four games since. Paul Richardson (best weekly finish is 38th), Jamison Crowder (33rd) and Josh Doctson (67th) have all been busts. Backs Chris Thompson and Adrian Peterson and tight end Jordan Reed are the only players from this offense worth considering for your lineup most weeks.
Snap attack
Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny registered nine carries and two targets on Sunday, but only played 13 snaps. His upside makes him a worthwhile bench stash, but nothing more with Chris Carson (24 snaps) and Mike Davis (23 snaps) more involved.
Panthers TE Greg Olsen was on the field for 58 of the Panthers' 59 offensive snaps against Washington in Week 6. It was Olsen's first action since he went down with a leg injury on his 14th snap of the season back in Week 1. Olsen's massive role and his seven-target effort put him right back in the mix as a midpack TE1.
Browns WR Damion Ratley stepped up with six catches and 82 yards on eight targets on Sunday. Injuries ahead of him on the depth chart helped the 2018 sixth-round pick to a career-high 62 snaps against the Chargers. He was on the field for 45 of the team's 50 pass plays. With Rashard Higgins expected to miss more time and Rod Streater done for the year, Ratley is expected to work as the team's No. 3 wide receiver against a struggling Tampa Bay secondary this week. He's a sneaky play in deep leagues.
Patriots WR Josh Gordon has been unleashed. The former Brown (they could really use him these days) was on the field for 35 of New England's 37 pass plays on Sunday night, registering nine targets in the game. The production wasn't great (five catches, 42 yards), but better days are ahead with Gordon now playing a full complement of snaps in one of the league's best offenses. He's a WR3 against Chicago this week.
Eagles running backs: Week 6 marked the Eagles first game with Jay Ajayi on injured reserve. Corey Clement was limited but still played 25 snaps, handling 11 carries and three targets. Wendell Smallwood led the unit with 42 snaps and 18 carries, adding a pair of targets. Josh Adams was active but did not play a snap. We should expect a similar dynamic moving forward, though Clement figures to take on more work when healthy and Darren Sproles will chip in significantly in passing situations once he returns from a hamstring injury. Smallwood and Clement are flex options against Carolina this week.
Bengals WR Tyler Boyd has been on the field for 84 percent of the Bengals' snaps, including 88 percent of the pass plays this season. He's handling a 23 percent target share and sits 19th at the wide receiver position in OFP (79) and 12th in actual fantasy points (107). Boyd is enjoying a third-year breakout and should be locked into weekly lineups.
Lions RB Kerryon Johnson has been on the field for 40 percent of Detroit's snaps, has run a route on 29 percent of the team's pass plays, is handling 45 percent of the carries and has accrued a seven percent target share. Johnson entered the Week 6 bye 35th at the position in OFP. The rookie remains in a rotation in Detroit and is no more than a shaky flex until he takes on a larger role.
Saints WR Cameron Meredith was on the field for a season-high 59 percent of the Saints' pass plays and also hit a season-best with five targets when the Saints were last on the field against Washington in Week 5. Meredith has emerged as the team's top slot target, but needs a bit more playing time and target volume to make him a consistent flex option. Nonetheless, he should be on benches.
Burning questions
Can I start either Titans' running back with confidence right now? No -- the Titans' offense is a mess. Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis combined for an atrocious 40 scrimmage yards on 15 touches against Baltimore on Sunday. Henry has yet to produce a top-40 fantasy week and Lewis has two in six tries. Lewis' 15 percent target share keeps him in the flex discussion, but he's a shaky play with the Titans' offense averaging an almost-unbelievable and league-worst 1.0 touchdowns per game. Henry is trailing Lewis in carries and is a non-factor as a receiver, which means he's barely worth a roster spot in 10-team leagues.
Is 49ers WR Marquise Goodwin a weekly fantasy starter? I'd consider the matchup, but yes. QB C.J. Beathard is an obvious downgrade from Jimmy Garoppolo, but the second-year passer has been better than expected. The Packers' secondary has struggled, but Goodwin proved healthy on Monday night, seeing the field on 95 percent of the team's snaps while also using his world-class speed to break loose for several big gains, including a pair of touchdowns. His big-play ability and Beathard's competent play position Goodwin as a weekly flex option.
Is Falcons TE Austin Hooper now a TE1? If not, he's close. Hooper has caught nine passes in back-to-back games, handling 22 targets during the span. He's turned the heavy workload into a pair of 70-plus receiving yard efforts and one touchdown. Granted, both Ridley and Sanu were injured in Sunday's game, but considering how injury-plagued the tight end position has been, Hooper is on a short list of players you can feel somewhat confident in right now. He's a fringe top-10 play against the Giants in Week 7.
Has Cardinals WR Christian Kirk worked his way into the WR3 discussion? Despite some strong efforts as of late, I wouldn't go that far. Kirk has cleared 76 receiving yards during three of his past four games and is fantasy's No. 31 scoring wideout during the span. The problem is that the Arizona offense is struggling badly and Kirk's average of 6.0 targets per game isn't enough to allow consistent fantasy numbers when touchdown opportunities are so far and few between.
Is Packers WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling worth rostering through the bye? Outside of dynasty leagues, no. The fifth-round rookie has been impressive, but Packers NFL Nation reporter Rob Demovsky agrees that he will return to fourth on the depth chart once Randall Cobb and Geronimo Allison return from injury (likely in Week 8). Valdes-Scantling has 10 catches for 171 yards and a score on 16 targets over the past two games, but is no more than the rare notable handcuff at the wide receiver position.