The fantasy blocking breakdown series reviews the impact that run and pass blocking have on fantasy football performance, using methodologies detailed here.
This week's fantasy blocking breakdown reviews why Oakland's passing game could get a boost in the near future, how the Saints' rush defense can turn any opponent's running backs into starting caliber fantasy prospects and whether fantasy managers will be able to trust Arizona's veteran running back down the stretch.
Concern for Carr?
Derek Carr's fantasy managers had some hope that things were getting better for him of late. He came into the Week 11 contest against the New England Patriots having thrown for 300 or more yards in three straight games and was only a couple of games removed from having posted 30.2 points against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 7.
Unfortunately, Carr didn't build on that performance, as he averaged only 13.1 points in the two contests that followed the Chiefs' matchup.
Things didn't change for the better against a much-improved New England defense, as Carr managed to throw for only 237 yards and tallied only 13.5 fantasy points against the Patriots.
So what is the problem? A big part of it is subpar pass blocking. Oakland ranked 21st in Week 11 in ESPN Stats & Information's pass pressure rate (PPR) metric that measures how often a defense gets pass rush pressure on a quarterback. The Raiders allowed that to happen on 36 percent of Carr's dropbacks in this contest. This issue was even more pronounced on vertical passes (aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield), as New England had a 52.9 percent PPR on those attempts.
What makes this matter even more concerning is the Patriots got pressure on 33.3 percent of dropbacks where they didn't send a blitzer, so this was a matter of New England's defense getting a pass rush with its defensive linemen.
The good news for Carr's fantasy managers is this might not be as much of an issue over the next three weeks thanks to a favorable schedule. Denver's pass rush has fallen off tremendously of late, as the Broncos 22.2 percent PPR against Cincinnati in Week 11 was an atrocious showing versus an offense that ranked 25th in PPR allowed in Weeks 6-10 (32.0 percent). The Giants and Chiefs don't fare much better here, as Big Blue ranks 20th in PPR over the past five weeks (27.9) and Kansas City ranks next to last in PPR (19.2).
This may mean something of a turnaround is in order for Carr, so fantasy teams looking for a low-cost trade option headed into the fantasy playoffs should consider making a trade offer for Carr before the upcoming deadline.
Running around the Saints
Washington's rushing game came into Week 11 on a downward trend, as in Weeks 6-10 this platoon ranked last in the league in rush yards per carry before first defensive contact (YBCT) (1.1). They also ranked next to last in this time frame in my good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) metric that measures how productive ball carriers are when given quality run blocking.
Those trends ran into a highly favorable matchup against New Orleans, as the Saints ranked 30th in YBCT allowed (2.9) and 29th in GBYPA allowed (9.1) in Weeks 6-10.
The combination of those weaknesses ended up working in Washington's favor, as Jay Gruden's team posted a 48.3 percent mark in my good blocking rate (GBR) metric that gauges how often an offense gives its ball carriers quality run blocking. That was the second-highest GBR Washington has posted this season. The 7.9 GBYPA Washington posted against the Saints was also the second-highest total they have tallied this year in that category.
These metrics were the foundation for sold performances by Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson. It could also bode very well for running backs due to face the Saints in upcoming weeks, a group that includes Todd Gurley in Week 12, Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart in Week 13, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman in Weeks 14 and 16 and Bilal Powell, Matt Forte and Elijah McGuire in Week 15. Fantasy managers should be sure to either get these players into the lineup during those weeks or consider making reasonable trade offers to acquire them in time for the late fantasy regular season and playoff stretch.
Should Peterson be on your bench?
Adrian Peterson has been a standout performer on two occasions since joining the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, as he posted 25.4 points in his first game with the Cardinals and then tallied 16.5 points against San Francisco in Week 9.
The problem for fantasy managers is Peterson has posted fewer than five points in each of the other three contests. What are the odds that he turns this situation around and becomes a more consistent point producer?
To figure this out, let's step back and get an idea of exactly the type of impact Peterson had on the Arizona rushing attack.
After Week 5, the Cardinals ranked tied for 25th in GBR (36.1) and ranked last in GBYPA (5.3). Their GBYPA was so bad that it was just under a yard lower than the team ranked 31st in that category (Green Bay).
Arizona's GBR really hasn't improved by much since then, as the club has posted a 38.4 percent GBR since Peterson arrived. Peterson has also done a lot to improve the GBYPA, as the Cardinals have posted a 7.5 GBYPA since he his arrival.
The problem for Peterson's fantasy managers is twofold. First, a 7.5 GBYPA is actually lower than the league average of 7.8 GBYPA, so it isn't exactly a feather in the proverbial metric hat.
The second issue is Peterson has posted a 7.7 GBYPA that is slightly lower than the team total in that metric and he has a GBYPA of 5 or fewer yards in the three aforementioned games where tallied fewer than five fantasy points.
What this indicates is Peterson should now be considered a back whose value stems from quantity rather than quality and thus most of his upside will be driven by matchups. That may turn out to be a plus over the next couple of weeks against Jacksonville and the Los Angeles Rams, as both of those clubs have struggled at stopping the rush at times this season, so keep Peterson in the flex start conversation for those contests.