Fantasy Football
AJ Mass, ESPN Staff Writer 7y

Trade theory in fantasy football: Productivity vs. popularity

Fantasy NFL, Fantasy

In my first fantasy football draft, I spent a late-round draft pick on a rookie quarterback out of Washington State who had impressed me when I happened to see him play in person in a game at USC the previous season. I won the league championship that season, and as this was a dynasty league, I proceeded to celebrate by using my winnings to purchase a Drew Bledsoe jersey. Why wouldn't I? After all, he was a big part in helping me get that prize in the first place.

Since it was a dynasty league, there wasn't any worry that I wouldn't get Bledsoe in future seasons, but had it been a one-and-done redraft league, all of my leaguemates would certainly have known simply from my choice of apparel that the quarterback was someone I would put higher value on than perhaps most other fantasy football participants.

While it might not be logical, a person's fandom often skews their ability to properly evaluate the fantasy value of certain players. Certainly, you can take advantage of your observations and knowledge of your opponents' likes and dislikes on draft day. For example, you can roll the dice and wait until the snake comes back to you to take Dez Bryant if you know that the next guy who is due to pick hates the Cowboys and is wearing a T.Y. Hilton jersey -- and the Colts receiver is still on the board.

Now that the season is underway, you can still use "fandom" as a helpful tool when it comes to trade value. Knowing that a potential trade partner loves the Steelers and hates the Packers, you can feel more confident in trying to demand a greater package in return for Martavis Bryant than Davante Adams, regardless of their performance thus far in 2017. The heart will often outweigh the head in situations like this -- and the savvy fantasy football participant needs to take both into account to maximize success.

To that end, and in an effort to leave no stone unturned in our quest for as many fantasy football titles as possible, we're going to see what information can be gleaned from the collective fandom of the football-watching public. Jersey sale statistics in and of themselves aren't going to correlate with fantasy football value -- need I remind you of Tim Tebow? That said, seeing how a player's jersey sales ebb and flow over the course of a football season can definitely give you an inkling as to how the "wisdom of the crowds" perceives the current performance level of certain players.

Taking a look at the top-30 offensive players in terms of jersey sales over the past week, courtesy of Dick's Sporting Goods, we find a pair of Cowboys in the top-five overall (Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott) for the second straight week. Let's face it. Whatever your personal rooting interest may be in the team, Cowboys fans are as loyal as they get -- and widespread to boot. The guys with the star on their helmets are always going to overvalued in the eyes of their admirers.

But beyond that, you can actually intuit a lot about what actually took place on the field in Week 2. Case in point, Jameis Winston rose a whopping 58 spots from the end of Week 1, all the way up to No. 22 on the list. What changed in a week? Well, the Buccaneers were at home, so the huge uptick in the popularity of his "3" makes a lot of sense. Of course, the fact Tampa Bay won easily over Chicago was also likely to inspire the hometown fans to make some of these purchases.

Losing teams don't inspire a long-term commitment to sporting their garb -- so given Cincinnati's anemic Week 2 outing at home (a nationally televised 13-9 loss to Houston on Thursday) it's no wonder that A.J. Green dropped eight spots to No. 11 on the list and Tyler Eifert fell from No. 12 to No. 27. Again, it doesn't mean all Bengals players should be sent packing form your fantasy rosters, but it does give you a pretty good idea that if you do decide to deal away Green or Eifert right now, you may not be getting top value in return.

So, whose stock is rising? Carson Wentz (up five spots to No. 3 overall) after a 333-yard 2-TD effort on the road, Julio Jones (up 17 spots to No. 7) after a solid 5-108 in a blowout win that also saw Matt Ryan surge 41 spots to No. 16. It would be unwise to try to "buy high" from an Eagles or Falcons fan at the moment.

Taking a look at Baltimore, now 2-0 on the year, it is probably not surprising that Joe Flacco jumped 27 post to No. 18 on the list. However, up 37 spots to No. 13 overall is kicker Justin Tucker. When the kicker's jersey is the most popular on the team, you just know fantasy managers aren't likely to want anything to do with the Ravens right now.

After a fairly mediocre Monday night game, both Eli Manning (No. 17, down 14 spots) and Matthew Stafford (No. 19, down 10) have seem their jersey sales slump. While the dropoff of the Denver duo of Demaryius Thomas and Emanuel Sanders from Nos. 2 and 3 overall last week to their current Nos. 24 and 32 can easily be seen as an artifact of the Broncos going on the road following a MNF opener, Russell Wilson's 16-spot slide to No. 26 overall can't be dismissed as easily. Wilson was at home, and his Seahawks won -- but only 12-9 and 198 passing yards and 1 TD while getting sacked three times shows his market value is indeed way down. 

Is there anything predictive about these jersey sales in terms of figuring out which players you should drop and which ones you should try to snag in a deal? Not in terms of future performance, no. However, as a way to see which players might be currently surging in popularity or, conversely, falling out of favor by football fans at large, you may well be able to use this information as a supplementary tool to identify sell-high and buy-low candidates.

After all, you may not be able to read people's minds, but you may be able to get inside their head by seeing what they choose to wear below it.

Promotional consideration paid for by Dick's Sporting Goods.

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