Football statistics are extremely hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.
From 2007 to 2016, there were 128 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 50-plus offensive touches one season before getting 50-plus touches again the very next season. In those cases, 89 players (69.5 percent) ended up scoring more touchdowns in that subsequent season.