Trusting the process in Philadelphia is finally bearing fruit. Fans of the 76ers endured seemingly endless ineptitude rife with heavy usage rates for players like Tony Wroten and continued reliance on borderline talent. Those loyalists and the league at large are now seeing that the comparisons between Hakeem Olajuwon and Joel Embiid appear entirely realistic, while Ben Simmons is posting a rich statistical slash that has been matched by only Magic Johnson and Fat Lever.
Former Sixers GM Sam Hinkie applied a contrarian view to a market that is often motivated by groupthink. Many NBA teams chase the handful of successfully progressive front offices, while results suggest only a few teams truly sustain success. However controversial Hinkie's game theory approach proved, I laud him for taking the unpaved path.
Last week, I focused on how navigating the trade market during these embryonic early weeks can prove rewarding, as it's never too early to assess what is and isn't working with our fantasy rosters. This week, the emphasis is on working the wire. The churning of talent Hinkie curated while with the Sixers eventually saw him identify some productive pros, namely pulling Robert Covington from the D-League and giving an undrafted T.J. McConnell regular burn when it wasn't even clear he was an NBA player. Since the infusion of the 3-pointer, no player in league history has averaged at least 16 PPG, 1.5 SPG, 3.5 3PG and 5.7 RPG over a season. Covington, however, is the lone player in the league maintaining this uniquely versatile batch of production.
Just like his approach to the draft process, Hinkie cast a wide net across the undrafted and undervalued population of professional basketball prospects. It's not that he knew Covington would be an impact perimeter force, nor did he know Wroten, a former first-round pick, would flame out so quickly. Embracing the uncertainty of such outcomes became a utility for Hinkie. The opportunity cost for Hinkie to deploy such liminal prospects wasn't prohibitive, given the lack of talent on those rosters, so it was a low level of risk with some realized rewards.
Tying this to fantasy basketball, I think we season-long managers too often stash unproductive or injured players instead of proving aggressive and progressive with free-agency and waiver claims.
Which is to say, you won't land the next Covington by waiting for Jabari Parker to begin ramping up workouts in February. Leverage the opportunity value of utility spots and bench space. I think you'll be surprised with how successfully you can curate a fantasy Frankenstein by streaming undervalued players amid hot streaks and/or set with ideal matchups. Leveraging fluidity with the end of your roster could create minor positive margins that tend to convert into winning close categorical battles in head-to-head leagues.
Applying a fantasy baseball approach to sifting for production over a long season, we should try to recognize and capitalize on hot streaks at the plate -- or on the court in this case -- as they unfold.
The simple way to sift for rising players is on the Player Rater. I love how the Player Rater reveals value over different samples; so, we can chase small samples of success over the past seven days. The Player Rater is a somewhat simple standard deviation model that rewards production that is stronger than average at each statistical category and with respect to positional scarcity and context.
Looping in the baseball comparison, .255 hitters can still dominate for multi-week stretches, which can prove invaluable if can recognize when successful benders begin (and eventually peter out).
The Hawks, for instance, have become a bastion for fantasy value as the market continues to dismisses the roster past Dennis Schroder. But consider that Taurean Prince of the Atlanta Hawks is 13th on the Player Rater over the past seven days, Dewayne Dedmon is 11th overall during this sample and Kent Bazemore is 16th.
We're seeing a similar surge from undervalued players in Utah, as Rodney Hood, Donovan Mitchell and Derrick Favors are all widely available and assuming greater usage and responsibility on a Jazz roster now looking to replace the elite production patterns of Gordon Hayward and Rudy Gobert. Both Hood and Mitchell rank in the top 22 on the Player Rater over the past seven days, while Favors is 31st on this value index over the past seven days.
Of course, these aren't top-20 or even likely top-50 contributors over a long view, but I think if you approach the utility spots as streaming for hot streaks, you'll net far more influential production than trusting the same replacement level players throughout the season.
Matchup ratings are based upon a scale from 1 (poor matchup) to 10 (excellent matchup). These are calculated using a formula that evaluates the team's year-to-date and past 10 games' statistics, their opponents' numbers in those categories and their performance in home/road games depending on where the game is to be played. The column to the left lists the team's total number of games scheduled as well as home games, and lists the overall rating from 1-10 for that team's weekly schedule.
The week ahead
The holiday this upcoming week is far more friendly for fantasy football than on the hardcourt, as the league is off entirely on Thursday, and on Tuesday we net just a single game between the Chicago Bulls and Los Angeles Lakers.
This wonky schedule means the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets and Lakers all endure two-game schedules. Managers with heavy shares of the Rockets, for example, will want to load on up on quality options from teams with four-game slates, such as the Hawks and Bulls.
Maximizing games played during a unique week can differentiate you from the competition, as you can gain an edge via sheer volume.
Matchup metrics
I'm always hunting for intel that can improve my management acumen in fantasy hoops. One enduring resource I've relied on over the years is an under-the-radar site, Hoops Stats. In breaking down defensive efficiency by position, the site offers a quick appraisal of the best matchups to target with our streamers and daily fantasy selections, while also revealing the toughest positional scenarios around the league.
For example, it probably won't surprise you that the teams with the least stability at point guard, or at least a lack of consistency in the rotation pattern, are among the most porous defensive teams facing point guards.
The Phoenix Suns, New York Knicks, Bulls and Denver Nuggets all have taken somewhat patchwork approaches to fielding the point guard position this season, and this is reflected in all of them being ranked among the six most generous matchups for point guards.
Peruse the different positional allowance indexes for a helpful macro view of matchup metrics.