Durant had a slight advantage in PER and a small advantage in fantasy points per game, that translated to more than 400 more fantasy points during those first two seasons.
Advantage Durant.
However, there are parts of the game that the box scores don't measure. How much does a player warp a defense to open space for teammates? How much offense does a player's playmaking create for teammates? How much does a player's picks, or use of a teammates' picks, create mismatches and two-man opportunities for the team?
Questions like these won't be answered in the box score stats of the individual, but they do often show up in their impact stats. And of course, the state-of-the-art impact stat used by ESPN is real plus-minus (RPM). And in this comparison, RPM tells a much different story than the box score stats:
During both of their seasons together, Curry has finished with the better RPM score, among the top scores in the league. These results would estimate that over the past two seasons, Durant's presence on the court has correlated to about a 4.7-point improvement in the Warriors' scoring margin for every 100 possessions, while Curry's presence on the court has correlated to about a 7.1-point improvement per 100 possessions.
Curry's unique brand of high efficiency shooting out to 30 feet, mixed with strong ball-handling and an unstoppable pick-and-roll/pop pairing with Draymond Green has all types of outstanding positive effects on the Warriors' offense. Durant could arguably be the more productive individual player, but Curry's on-court impact on the fortunes of his team dominates even his MVP-caliber teammate.
Put it all together, and it appears that I was correct in telling Rachel, TMac and Pierce that Durant should be ranked slightly higher than Curry.
Their two-season association backs that up: Durant has the slightly higher fantasy scoring average thus far this season, and Curry is currently on the shelf while Durant is healthy.
In a fantasy draft, you likely pick Durant first. But if you want to build an NBA team around one or the other, Chef Curry is the pick even over The Durantula.
Rest-of-season points-based rankings breakdown by position
Point guard
Kyrie Irving has definitely gotten his legs under him, and is settling into his role surrounded by a lot of talent. He has averaged 24.0 PPG (52.1 percent FG, 95.0 percent FT), 3.9 3PG and 1.9 SPG during his past seven games after managing only 14.0 PPG (39.1 percent FG, 69.2 percent FT), 1.2 3PG and 0.8 SPG during his first six contests this season.
Rajon Rondo and Lonzo Ball continue to be on a mission of mutual fantasy destruction, because they play so similar of a role on the same team. Each has taken turns playing well this season, and they are now reaching a steady state where their season-long averages are getting so close to each other that my most recent projections place them next to each other in my rest-of-season rankings.
Derrick Rose has taken advantage of Jeff Teague's ankle injury to put together a throwback run of excellence to get back on the fantasy landscape. Rose has averaged 24.3 PPG (49.1 percent FG, 100 percent FT), 4.7 APG, 4.0 RPG and 3.7 3PG during his past three contests after returning from a minor injury, and in the game before the injury, he dropped 50 points on the Utah Jazz. Teague will return soon, but with Jimmy Butler traded for forwards, the Timberwolves may still need to rely on Rose's ability to create shots moving forward.
Shooting guard
Zach LaVine is the only player in the NBA to score 20 or more points in every game this season. He has settled in as the superstar on the injury-depressed Bulls and is showing that he can carry the team's production on a night-in/night-out basis.
Buddy Hield seems to have really found himself as a shooter/scorer this season, playing well off the increased (young) talent on the Kings. He is currently in the midst of a nine-game streak of scoring double figures, during which he has averaged 21.1 PPG (47.0 percent FG, 88.9 percent FT), 6.4 RPG, 3.0 APG and 2.7 3PG.
Rodney McGruder is coming off scoring a season-high 22 points in his last outing, despite playing a season-low 27 minutes. He clearly seems to be established in his current role, and with the Heat missing out on the Jimmy Butler sweepstakes, it seems more likely that he'll be able to hold onto this role for the foreseeable future.
Small forward
Danilo Gallinari has played consistent, high-impact ball all season. He moved up in these rankings because I adjusted how much I would penalize his current averages based on his injury history. He still should be considered an injury risk, but with the way he's playing, he deserved to move up the rankings.
Jae Crowder has averaged 16.9 PPG (49.4 percent FG, 57.9 percent FT), 5.4 RPG and 2.7 3PG during his past seven games. He seems fully acclimated into his role with the Jazz and is playing some of the best ball of his career.
Brandon Ingram has been in a bit of a funk for the past five games, averaging only 13.2 PPG (43.3 percent FG, 70.6 percent FT), 4.6 RPG and 2.4 APG in 32.2 MPG during that stretch. I did a couple radio shows in Los Angeles last week, and there's a bit of a buzz among the fans and talking heads that the Lakers' best lineup is Ball, Josh Hart, LeBron James, Kyle Kuzma and a big man (Tyson Chandler or JaVale McGee), and that perhaps Ingram's best role might be off the bench. The team hasn't adopted that policy, but it's worth keeping an eye on.
Power forward
Domantas Sabonis has consistently outplayed teammate Myles Turner all season and shows no signs of slowing down. As such, they have essentially swapped places in the rankings with Sabonis established as clearly the best big on the team.
Pascal Siakam joins teammate Serge Ibaka as big forwards who are playing excellent basketball in the current regime. Siakam is a young talent who seems to be coming into his own this season.
Taj Gibson and Dario Saric are both worth keeping an eye on, now that the Butler trade is complete. Both have starting-caliber talent, but there's only one starting power forward job in Minnesota. Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau has always rocked with Gibson, but Saric has the talent to give the Timberwolves a floor-stretching, volume-scoring forward they've lacked during the Karl-Anthony Towns era.
Center
KAT has been in the midst of an awful season, but closer examination shows that he actually played poorly only alongside Butler. With Butler out of town, Towns would seem likely to start living up to his draft status moving forward.
Hassan Whiteside has produced three straight double-doubles, and five in his past six games. During those three games, he has averaged 18.3 PPG, 18.0 RPG and 5.7 BPG to earn himself a promotion in the rankings.
McGee has been playing very good ball this season, but the Lakers just brought in Chandler to help man the position. It is worth watching to see if Chandler starts to eat into McGee's production, and to see which of the two eventually settles in as the lead center on the team.
Methodology
I calculated preseason projections for more than 320 players to feed the fantasy draft kit, and we now have in-season player data to give feedback on how players are actually performing. The rest-of-season rankings are influenced by my projections, current player performance, injury, and player situation factors to quantitatively estimate the rest-of-season rankings with more precision.
Also, our rankings include arrows to indicate whether a given player made a notable move up or down the rankings since last week. This helps keep you up to speed with how player values are changing during the course of the season.
Note: These rankings reflect the expected player value for the remainder of this season.
