Andre Snellings, ESPN 6y

Fantasy NBA Daily Notes: Wizards who are shining without Wall

Fantasy NBA, Fantasy, NBA

The Washington Wizards won their fifth straight game without John Wall on Monday, toppling the Indiana Pacers 111-102. This just begs for the hot-take overreaction that the Wizards must be a better team without Wall, right?

Thankfully on the fantasy front we don't have to wade into the hot takes on team outlooks. However, we are interested in what the production changes look like when a primary player like Wall moves to the sidelines. In this case, Wall's absence has led to a general team-wide improvement that has lifted the squad to short-term success while also giving them more fantasy-relevant options. Monday's game was an example of this, so let's go through the current players of interest in Washington.

Starting at the top, All-Star Bradley Beal led the team with 21 points (9-16 FG, 2-2 FT) on Monday, also adding three assists, a rebound and a 3-pointer but with six turnovers. Though the scoring Monday was typical, he actually had a comparatively poor game overall. During his previous five games, he averaged 21.0 points (48.1 FG%, 90.5 FT%), 6.2 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 1.6 3-pointers and 1.4 steals -- slightly lower scoring numbers than his season averages but with more assists, as he's taken on more of an offensive creator role in the absence of Wall.

Otto Porter Jr. and Markieff Morris (50.2 percent available) have stepped up significantly in Wall's absence, giving the team solid secondary options to Beal on a regular basis. Both had relatively modest games on Monday, but during their past five games overall, Porter has averaged 18.4 points (55.7 FG%, 88.9 FT%), 5.2 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.6 3-pointers, 1.2 steals and 0.4 blocks, while Morris has produced 16.6 points (54.2 FG%, 92.3 FT%), 6.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.4 3-pointers, 1.0 steals and 0.4 blocks per game.

The remaining two starters feature veteran Marcin Gortat and Wall-replacement Tomas Satoransky (89.6 percent available), both of whom have been producing more modest, but still fantasy-relevant, numbers in Wall's absence. Gortat has been a nightly double-double threat, averaging 9.6 points (55.0 FG%, 100.0 FT%), 8.0 rebounds, 1.2 assists and 0.8 blocks during his past five games. Satoransky has held off Tim Frazier to maintain the starting job and has averaged 9.8 points (53.3 FG%, 100.0 FT%) with 5.8 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.6 steals and 1.2 3-pointers during the five games of Wall's injury.

The Wizards also got four double-digit scoring efforts off the bench on Monday. Kelly Oubre Jr. (78.9 percent available) produced 15 points (4-9 FG, 6-8 FT) with 7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block, 1 steal and 1 3-pointer on Monday, and he is the bench option most likely to produce on a semi-regular basis.

Ian Mahinmi scored 12 points (4-4 FG, 4-5 FT) with 7 rebounds, 2 steals and 1 assist before fouling out in 24 minutes on Monday, but that was only his second double-digit scoring effort and first effort with more than four rebounds during his past five games. Mike Scott (11 points, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 3-pointer) and Jodie Meeks (10 points, 3 assists, 2 3-pointers) were also in double figures on Monday, but their roles are small enough that, barring injury, they're unlikely to produce enough to warrant consideration, even in Wall's absence.

Monday recap

Box scores

Highlights:

Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons: 17 points (7-12 FG, 3-4 FT), 17 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 blocks, 1 steal, 4 TO

Rodney Hood, Utah Jazz: 30 points (12-14 FG, 2-2 FT), 4 3-pointers, 3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1 steal, 1 TO

Danilo Gallinari, LA Clippers: 28 points (9-13 FG, 6-6 FT), 5 rebounds, 4 3-pointers, 2 assists, 1 TO

Lowlights:

Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers: 6 points (2-5 FG, 2-2 FT), 5 rebounds, 1 block, 3 TO

Donovan Mitchell, Utah Jazz: 2 points (1-6 FG), 3 assists, 1 steal, 3 TO

Nikola Mirotic, New Orleans Pelicans: 5 points (2-8 FG, 1-2 FT), 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal, 2 TO

Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings: 7 points (3-7 FG, 1-2 FT), 6 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 TO, 5 PF, 17 minutes

Monday takeaways

  • The Miami Heat turned in several solid-to-strong fantasy efforts in a loss on Monday, led by Hassan Whiteside's 19 points (8-16 FG, 3-5 FT), 14 rebounds and 1 assist. Josh Richardson was the leading scorer with 20 points (8-13 FG, 4-5 FT), 2 assists, 2 rebounds and 1 steal. Justise Winslow (95.2 percent available) scored a season-high 16 points (6-10 FG, 4-4 FT) with 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block in his new role as a starter. Goran Dragic flirted with a triple-double with 13 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists, 1 3-pointer and 1 steal, while Tyler Johnson turned in 12 points, 4 assists, 3 rebounds and 2 3-pointers in 32 minutes off the bench. Bam Adebayo (96.9 percent available) stepped up with Kelly Olynyk injured (see below), turning in 18 points with 10 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 steal and 1 assist in 26 minutes off the bench.

  • Hood exploded in his second game back from injury, dropping 30 points in only 27 minutes off the bench. He is difficult to count on when everyone is healthy, though, as his production fluctuates wildly from game to game. Generally, Mitchell fills the high-volume wing scorer role for the Jazz, so unsurprisingly, Hood's huge game corresponded with a poor game from Mitchell. Meanwhile, Ricky Rubio continued his recent renaissance with 20 points, 11 assists, 3 rebounds and 1 3-pointer on Monday. His rise has seemingly corresponded with improvements in the production of the bigs, with whom he often runs the pick-and-roll game, and on Monday Rudy Gobert turned in 19 points, 10 rebounds, 1 block and 1 steal, while Derrick Favors was good for 19 points, 7 rebounds, 2 3-pointers and 1 assist.

  • Zach Lavine is back! Just ask Jakarr Sampson:

LaVine played 31 minutes, turning in 27 points (9-18 FG, 5-5 FT) with 4 3-pointers, 3 rebounds, 2 assists and 1 steal. This was his third straight game with more than 20 points scored, as he seems to finally be getting his legs all the way under him. Teammate Bobby Portis was also strong again in his third straight game without Lauri Markkanen and Mirotic, scoring 18 points with 14 boards, 4 assists, 2 steals and 2 3-pointers in 32 minutes. Mirotic is in New Orleans now, but Markkanen is expected back soon, which should send Portis back to the bench, though in a more prominent sixth-man role.

  • Dirk Nowitzki went over 50,000 minutes played on Monday, making him fifth in NBA history behind Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Karl Malone, Kevin Garnett and Jason Kidd. Congratulations to one of the greatest players in NBA history.

Injuries of note

  • Victor Oladipo sat on Monday with an illness, joining Darren Collison (knee) on the sidelines. Oladipo should be considered questionable for Wednesday's game against the Pelicans. With both Oladipo and Collison out on Monday, Bojan Bogdanovic (79.8 percent available) had a big game with 29 points (9-15 FG, 6-7 FT), 5 3-pointers, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 block and 1 steal. He now has four straight games with at least 18 points scored.

  • De'Aaron Fox sprained his left ankle in the third quarter of Monday's game and didn't return. X-Rays came back negative, but more tests are expected. The Kings don't play again until Friday, and Fox should be considered questionable for now,  but if he sits, then George Hill (78.1 percent available) would be expected to get a boost in value.

  • Aaron Gordon missed Monday's game with his hip injury and is expected to sit on Tuesday, as well, for a fifth straight absence. Mario Hezonja (97.1 percent available) started in Gordon's place on Monday and turned in a strong game with a  team-high 20 points (7-14 FG, 2-2 FT), 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 3-pointers, 2 steals and 1 block in 32 minutes.

  • Olynyk suffered a shoulder injury in the first quarter of Monday's game and was unable to return. The severity of the injury is unknown, so no timetable has been released, but he should be considered questionable for now.

Analytics advantage for Tuesday

The Phoenix Suns (30th, 112.2 points allowed per game) and Los Angeles Lakers (27th, 110.0 points allowed per game) are among the bottom-four defenses in the NBA in terms of points allowed. Both also play among the fastest paces in the league, with the Lakers playing the fastest at 100.8 possessions per game and the Suns the fourth-fastest at 99.6 possessions per game.

Thus, Tuesday's game should put a lot of points on the board. However, both teams are missing their starting point guards, which means that the expected production will be coming from different, perhaps underutilized sources, so this game makes an excellent hunting ground for stream options and/or DFS mining.

Top players to watch tonight

  • We've got another Russell Westbrook vs. Kevin Durant matchup on Tuesday, and those are always must-see TV. Especially with both the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder in a bit of a funk right now, it will be interesting to see if the bad blood rivalry is enough to jolt both teams back to action.

 

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