Fantasy Baseball
Todd Zola, Fantasy 6y

Daily notes: Pitcher and hitter rankings for Monday

Fantasy, Fantasy MLB, MLB

After a couple of smaller slates to kick off the past few weeks, the last Monday of June gives us 24 of the 30 clubs in action. It's a unique schedule with 20 scheduled starting pitchers posting a projected game score of 49 or higher. Keeping in mind that 50 translates to a quality start, this presents a problem unearthing both pitchers and hitters to fortify your vacant roster spots. Most of the day's starters are above the 50 percent-rostered threshold, while hitting is tough since there aren't as many weaker arms to pick on. 

Don't fret, though. After mining the data, we have still landed upon some options, all available in more than 50 percent of ESPN leagues.

Pitching

Pitchers to stream

Felix Hernandez (R), rostered in 36 percent of ESPN leagues, Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles: Hernandez's nickname is of course King, but perhaps he should be known as Felix the Cat, as it appears he has nine lives. Just as soon as you write him off, he goes on another run. To wit, the veteran is coming off a pair of solid efforts against the Yankees and Red Sox, fanning six with just one walk in each outing. Next up is another AL East club, though this one, at least by the numbers, isn't nearly as daunting as his last two foes. The Orioles are the fourth-worst team in terms of production versus right-handers, while fanning 25 percent of the time in those encounters.

Jonathan Loaisiga (R), 16 percent, New York Yankees at Philadelphia Phillies: Loaisiga's second start didn't go as well as his first, but he was more a victim of seeing-eye singles than poor pitching on his part. The Phillies sport an average wOBA versus righties with a generous 26 percent strikeout rate. With his first two outings having come in Yankee Stadium, Loaisiga shouldn't be fazed with a road start -- especially since he won't face a designated hitter.

Seth Lugo (R), 14 percent, New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: Not a lot has gone well for the Mets since their blistering start to the season. Among the positives early was Lugo's mound work coming out of the bullpen. His move to the rotation has been bumpy, though his underlying skills remain solid -- 20 strikeouts and just three walks over three starts, spanning 14 frames. Homers have been the main concern, with two blasts allowed to Arizona in the desert and another in Coors Field. By the numbers, this shouldn't be a concern facing the Pirates as their offense is among the poorest when it comes to home run percentage facing right-handers.

Bullpen

Zach Britton converted his first save of 2018 in Saturday night's interleague affair with the Braves. Even more noteworthy for Britton is the fact that Atlanta smacked him around the previous night, tallying four runs in just one-third of an inning. The quick chance at retribution is a strong indication that Baltimore wants to showcase Britton for suitors as the trade deadline approaches. His velocity is down from previous seasons and he's not as sharp, but the Orioles are obviously hoping he ramps it up over the next few weeks. It's plausible he will be dealt somewhere to handle closing duties, but he could also be acquired by a contender simply looking to fortify their collection of setup men.

Projected game scores

Hitting

Catcher

Robinson Chirinos (R), 3 percent, Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres (LHP Joey Lucchesi): Chirinos has been a batting-average liability so far, though he's been productive in terms of homers and run production. He profiles better for points leagues but, as a fill-in, he's also in play for roto scoring. As is usually the case, Chirinos' power benefits from the platoon advantage. On Monday, he'll face Lucchesi, a promising but still raw southpaw who has allowed nine homers in his previous 27.1 innings.

First base

C.J. Cron (R), 44 percent, Tampa Bay Rays vs. Washington Nationals (LHP Gio Gonzalez): Cron is in a big-time tailspin, though with a home run earlier in the week and a double on Saturday, perhaps he's turning things around. Cron will step in the box against a pitcher in a rut of his own as Gonzalez has surrendered four homers over his last three outings, totaling just 13.1 innings with only eight punch outs in the span. Historically, Cron hits lefties hard and, despite a down month, he's still carrying a hard-hit rate well above the league average.

Second base

Jose Peraza (R), 36 percent, Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves (RHP Mike Foltynewicz): Stolen bases often come in bunches as a speedster has a series (or sometimes consecutive series) against batteries unable to control the running game. Peraza just took advantage of the Cubs with four pilfers and now embarks on a set with the Braves, one of the best teams to face for steals. On a side note, Peraza's playing time the rest of the season is far more secure since uber-prospect Nick Senzel was declared to be done for the season following surgery on his right index finger.

Third base

Jeimer Candelario (B), 31 percent, Detroit Tigers vs. Oakland Athletics (RHP Edwin Jackson): Like most of his teammates, Candelario's bat has been quiet recently. However, over the last week, his walk rate has increased. That's usually a harbinger of better things to come. To be fair, he did wear the golden sombrero on Saturday night. There are few pitchers better to get right against than Jackson, who will be pitching for his 13th MLB organization.

Shortstop

JT Riddle (L), under 1 percent, Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (RHP Shelby Miller): Analyzing pitching on any given day is hard enough. Throw in an inconsistent starter coming back from Tommy John surgery and anything can happen. He hasn't displayed it thus far in the majors, but while Riddle was recently down on the farm, he was more patient than usual. This is a good trait to have when facing a pitcher returning from such a long layoff, as control usually comes round later than velocity.

Corner infield

Johan Camargo (B), 3 percent, Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds (RHP Tyler Mahle): Unlike many of today's featured batters, Camargo has been hitting well late of late, producing a lot of runs despite hitting low in the order. To wit, Camargo has scored 14 times while knocking in 18 runs over the past month. That's not bad at all for someone usually hitting seventh or eighth in an NL lineup.

Middle infield

Daniel Descalso (L), 33 percent, Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins (RHP Dan Straily): The Diamondbacks continue to move Descalso around both the infield and outfield to keep his stick in the lineup with a righty on the hill. Straily missed a golden opportunity to fatten up on some lower-echelon clubs, facing the Giants and Padres in four of his last five starts (with the Diamondbacks being the other). Over this stretch, Straily posted a disappointing 7.20 ERA and 1.65 WHIP.

Outfield

Kole Calhoun (L), 7 percent, Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals (RHP Brad Keller): With two homers in his first three games after coming off the disabled list, Calhoun has increased his season total by 300 percent. He's hit safely in four of the five games since returning, even swiping a base. On Monday, Calhoun faces Keller, who started the season in the bullpen but has been stretched out to replace the injured Eric Skoglund. Keller has only allowed one homer in 41 frames, though while facing batters just once per appearance. In those 41 frames, Keller only fanned 24, giving Calhoun a good chance to put the ball in play.

Dustin Fowler (L), 4 percent, Oakland Athletics at Detroit Tigers (RHP Jordan Zimmermann): Zimmermann kept the ball in the yard against the White Sox in his return last time out but will be hard-pressed to repeat the feat against the homer-happy Athletics. Fowler is emerging from a slump, riding a modest four-game hitting streak into Sunday's action. He may not be as much of a threat to go deep as his teammates, but he has good on-base skills and can run if given the opportunity.

Ben Gamel (L), 1 percent, Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (RHP Andrew Cashner): ESPN Research Associate Kyle Soppe presents the case for Gamel, noting he is hitting an impressive .313 versus righties and has been productive in June, slashing .351/.415/.486 through Saturday night. Further, Gamel has stroked 11 of his last 12 homers off right-handers. Cashner is susceptible to lefty power bats, with 20 of his 40 hits allowed to left-handers going for extra bases. The icing on the cake is that Cashner has only fanned 18 batters over his last 26 frames.

Hitter matchup ratings

Hitter ratings account for the opposing starting pitcher's history (three years' worth) as well as ballpark factors. "LH" and "RH" ratings account only for left- and right-handed batters, respectively.

Weighted on-base average (wOBA) is the primary statistic used in the calculation. Ratings range from 1 to 10, with 10 representing the best possible matchup, statistically speaking, and 1 representing the worst. For example, a 10 is a must-start rating, while a 1 should be avoided (if possible); a 1-2 is poor, 3-4 is fair, 5-6 is average, 7-8 is very good and 9-10 is excellent. 

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