<
>

Analysis: How quick was Robert Kubica on his return?

play
Momentum with Ferrari as the break begins (1:18)

Gary Anderson looks back on an excellent end to the opening half of the season for Ferrari, and wonders if they can hold their advantage. (1:18)

HUNGARORING, Hungary -- After six and a half years away from the paddock, Robert Kubica's return to the cockpit of a modern F1 car was a remarkable story for the sport on Wednesday.

Forget suggestions that this was merely a PR stunt, Kubica completed a proper test programme with a mixture of long runs, short runs and a total lap count of over two race distances. Not only did Renault use the test to evaluate Kubica, the team also ran through aero tests to contribute towards its understanding of the R.S.17 ahead of the second half of the season.

From a run plan perspective, the test went to plan with no reliability issues and no major mistakes from inside the cockpit. Kubica got his biggest error out the way as he left the garage for the first time, clipping the wall as he exited the garage and knocking the sign displaying Nico Hulkenberg's name and face from above the garage door.

"The start of the day was not so easy, it was probably one of the biggest f--- ups in F1," he said. "To be honest, I was so concentrated on people in front of my garage, I forgot the cars are longer and wider. That was the only mistake I did so that's positive."

But it's the 142 laps that followed that are of real interest and -- based on a timing screen, a quick trip trackside and a window in the media centre -- it is those that are analysed below.

One-lap pace

Reading into testing times is always a tricky business. Kubica's fastest time of 1:18.572 was set on Pirelli's softest compound -- the ultra-soft -- and took place in the final hour of the test when track conditions should, in theory, be at their best. The temptation is to compare that lap with other times set by the Renault RS17 during the previous five days, but there are several pit falls.

The first, and most obvious, is that Saturday's qualifying times were set on the super-softs, at a different time of day and before a race-load of rubber had been laid on the track on Sunday. Other nuances to factor in are the car set-up and the exact fuel load compared to qualifying. But for the record, Nico Hulkenberg's Q3 time was a 1:17.468 on super-softs (good enough for seventh on the grid) and Palmer's Q2 lap was a 1:18.415 also on super-softs (good enough for 11th on the grid).

Kubica's fastest time on the super-soft compound was a 1:18.952 set on the first flying lap of a five-lap run at 16:26 in the afternoon. All Kubica's fast laps were set on five lap runs with an outlap, a first flying lap, a cool-down lap, a second flier and an in-lap, whereas Renault conducted its qualifying laps on Saturday with a simple out lap, fast lap and in lap to minimise the fuel load.

Comparisons with F2 driver Nicholas Latifi (who is Renault's official test driver and made his F1 debut on Tuesday) are also tempting but actually of even less use as his run plan was interrupted by an engine change and he missed out on his scheduled low-fuel runs on ultra-soft tyres. For the record, he set a 1:20.302.

When analysing Kubica's return it's worth treating it as if it was a rookie in the car. His previous experience in F1 between 2006 and the first test of 2011 would have been of little relevance and he said the 2012 car he tested earlier this year was much closer to the cars of the first part of his career than today's 2017 beasts. One of his main objectives was to not put the Renault in the wall, and from trackside he was leaving a visible margin of error that is likely to be worth a tenth or two.

"The current cars are even more demanding than previous cars, these cars are the fastest cars of the last 20 years," he said. "In the end the cars are even heavier, and this is the biggest difference and probably no-one is talking about it because they got used to it because every year or every two years there was minimum weight increments.

"For my side, when I last time drove the car the minimum weight was 620KG, to have 100KG [extra] bringing around the track... it makes a big difference. In a rally car when you put a 20KG spare wheel in a car which is weighing 1,300KG, you feel it. Imagine in a 600KG car adding 100KG!

"So there were quite big changes for me from what I knew and what I learned in the past so there was a lot of things to learn. But from psyical point of view, inside the car it is much better than it looks outside the car. That's what's most important."

With all that in mind, it's fair to say Kubica's single-lap times were impressive for a driver completing his first proper test in over six years. It was always unlikely he would come back and blitz the pace of Renault's regulars, yet his lap times on ultra-soft and super-soft tyres are proof that he is still able to hustle an F1 car round a demanding circuit like the Hungaroring.

Kubica finished the day saying he was not 100 per cent happy with his performance and believes there is more to come if he gets another opportunity. All of Kubica's fastest times were set after the lunch break and he believes that was down to taking some time to reflect on his performance out of the car. If he could test tomorrow, he is convinced he would go faster.

"Once I jumped out of the car I had a big break and I jumped back in at 2 o'clock and I felt like a different driver," he said. "The car felt much more familiar, it's a good sign. A lot of people think you improve only by driving, but you can improve also by thinking, and thinking where you can improve and this is what happened.

"For sure if I was driving tomorrow I'd have some idea where I can improve, and for sure I can feel more familiar with the car and everything will come easier and more natural which is the target."

Long runs

Kubica's long-run pace was also impressive but comes with many of the same, and some completely new, caveats when comparing to Sunday's race. Kubica went out on a series of long runs of roughly 16-17 laps before and after the lunch break and consistently set times in the 1:21s and 1:22s on soft tyres. These runs had no cool down laps like the ones on the softer compound tyres and were much closer to real-life race conditions. His average lap time over his run just after lunch -- the one where he felt reinvigorated by his time out of the car --was a 1:22.101. To offer a very rough comparison, the average lap time over Palmer's final stint on soft tyres on Sunday was a 1:22.480. Hulkenberg's was even slower than that after getting into a scrap with Kevin Magnussen and eventually retiring with gearbox and brake issues.

But a 17-lap run on a relatively empty race track in testing is quite a different proposition to Palmer's stint in a race, which is not only was longer at 23 laps but also involved getting stuck behind Daniil Kvyat towards the end, obeying blue flags and monitoring a power unit that is intended to last -- on average -- a quarter of a season. But what we can say is that Kubica's consistency was good and that if he had been dropped into Sunday's race to complete the final stint, he would have been competitive.

What next?

Importantly, nothing can be ruled out after Wednesday's test. Completing 142 laps in 34C heat and performing on a competitive level leaves the possibility of a return open. Physically, Kubica was up to the task and the only difference in how he operated the car was to make all gear changes with his left hand rather than using the left paddle for downshifts and right for upshifts. Much will depend on a team like Renault being willing to give him a chance, but Kubica himself seems up for the challenge.

"Nothing is impossible," he said on Wednesday evening. "Of course I have been the last six years through different periods and stages of my life mainly dedicated to my physical issues and injuries, then of course there was a lot going on in my head, which is normal I think, so my approach was very simple, anything can happen.

"If we see where I was four months ago compared to where I am now it is a big change and it happened very quickly. I think if in three months I did improve a lot and moved forward quite a lot, everything can happen in the future but we have to be realistic, nothing will be easy.

"For sure, my target is to get the kind of role in F1 if I can and if I will have a chance, but I don't know. One thing is sure, if it doesn't happen, I will not be disappointed because I am looking at this chance, this situation as very, very realistically.

"There is a lot to go, but it is far, far ahead so I would like to enjoy the moment and to have a think about what has happened today, because a lot of things happened whilst I was driving. If I get the chance to jump again in the car I will find it much easier, more familiar and it will come more naturally."

It would be a great shame for Kubica's F1 career to end now. He's come so far since 2011 and although the final step could still be the hardest, it would be more painful not to try at all.