Focus on... Which Mercedes will arrive in Baku?
After three years of one-team dominance, it is refreshing to come to each round of the 2017 season unsure whether Mercedes or Ferrari will grab pole and the win. The fact that is still the case as we approach the eighth race of the season is good news for Formula One fans and a good omen for a championship fight, which looks likely to be delicately balanced for much of the season.
While Mercedes' huge advantage often meant the opposite was true in the last three years, the team's inconsistency in 2017 has helped give this season a topsy-turvy feel to it. The qualifying head-to-head -- where Mercedes has five poles to Ferrari's two -- suggests the world champions still possess the fastest car on outright pace, but its wild inconsistency has been clear to see. Lewis Hamilton labelled the team's season a "rollercoaster" after his win in Canada, with the W08 -- the car team boss Toto Wolff recently labelled "a bit of a diva" -- able to lead the field one week and then struggle to find performance another.
The last four races are a perfect example of Mercedes' zig-zagging performance. Russia saw Ferrari lock out the front row as Mercedes struggled to get heat and performance to its tyres around Sochi's street-style circuit. A lightning start and flawless drive from Valtteri Bottas saw Mercedes beat the red cars and finish on the top step, but Hamilton's dismal weekend showed the team was far from the top of its game. Form returned in Spain, where Hamilton won, but disappeared again in Monaco, another street circuit, as he again failed to extract the maximum from Pirelli's softest compounds and finished off the podium. Mercedes took a dominant one-two in Canada -- a result helped by early drama for its main rivals, but capping a weekend which had seen the team take pole again.
By contrast, Vettel's Ferrari has been the most consistent scorer on the grid, helping him to an early championship lead. Canada looked set to be a scrap between the German and the two Mercedes drivers until he was hit at Turn 1 by Max Verstappen, but his drive through the field and superb overtake on Esteban Ocon shows he's operating at the peak of his game. If Mercedes slips up again, Vettel will be in prime position to re-establish a healthy championship lead over Hamilton and Bottas.
The fact Pirelli is not bringing the problematic ultra-soft tyre to Baku could save Mercedes plenty of headaches but it will be wary of another dramatic fluctuation on the softer compounds tipping the balance back in Ferrari's favour. The circuit is a mix between Monaco and Monza, with a tight and twisty first and middle sector followed by a long straight likely to benefit the slight advantage Mercedes still appears to have on outright power. With Wolff saying Mercedes worked 24/7 after Monaco to solve its car's diva-ish behaviour, Baku should give us a good idea of whether or not a long-term solution was found.
In need of a win
It is growing tiresome writing Kimi Raikkonen is in need of a win, so until he gets one assume he's here by default. Ordinarily we would give Red Bull the nod here given its pretty woeful start to the season but, given the power-dependent nature of the circuit and the limitations of the Renault engine, it would need a remarkable set of circumstances to unfold out in front.
Therefore, Valtteri Bottas gets this one as he looks to ease the "uncomfortable" situation team boss Wolff said he is in this year, with a contract running until the end of the season. Russia showed Bottas is more than capable of mixing it with the title contenders but, with Ferrari clearly ready to back Vettel all the way to a fifth world title, he will still be wary of letting the gap to Hamilton grow much bigger than his current deficit of 36 points.
A Force to be reckoned with?
Baku gave Force India a memorable podium through Sergio Perez last season. Force India emerged as Red Bull's closest on-track rival during the Canadian Grand Prix and could have knocked Daniel Ricciardo off the podium had it swapped its drivers at a crucial stage of the race. Baku and Austria, two power circuits, should favour the Mercedes customer and could see it again mixing it with the team that dominated the early 2010s.
Legitimately battling with Red Bull would be another indicator of just how well the modestly-funded Silverstone team operates and open up the possibility of another big haul of points for Perez and Esteban Ocon. If there is more drama ahead on Sunday, it could even present the opportunity of making up for its missed podium in Montreal.
ESPN prediction
Mercedes has made it clear its car issues are still not solved despite the win in Canada. The team's cursory approach suggests it is ready for more complications in Azerbaijan. Lewis Hamilton will be looking to avenge his disastrous error in qualifying last year but he seems to be particularly sensitive to any problems encountered with the W08 when it is struggling for grip.
With a question-mark hanging over Mercedes' form, it's hard to look past Ferrari and the current championship leader. Vettel 's run of first- and second-place finishes came to an end in Montreal and he will be determined to open up his championship lead over the chasing Mercedes drivers -- we're backing him to do so by beating them both to the top step this weekend.
Betting
Lewis Hamilton is favourite to win this weekend at 5/6, while you can find odds of 7/4 for Serbastian Vettel and 5/1 for Valtteri Bottas. Anyone excited about Force India's chances of grabbing a podium can back Sergio Perez at 9/1. Lance Stroll and the McLaren drivers are tipped to the be the first retirements at 10/1.
Weather
The only rain likely to fall is on the heads of cameramen, journalists and irritated drivers during Thursday's media day -- the next three days are forecast to be glorious sun and temperatures ranging from 27-29 degrees Celsius. Qualifying and the race take place in late afternoon-early evening, meaning temperatures for the sessions that matter are likely to be cooler, but there looks set to be little unpredictability about the conditions.
Tyres
Available compounds: Medium, soft and super-soft
Tyre facts, courtesy of Pirelli:
• The Baku street circuit is largely unchanged in layout from the inaugural race lastyear, with safety barriers having been altered in five or six corners, especially Turn 15.
• If Lewis Hamilton claims pole position in Baku, he will have broken the record of 65 poles established by Ayrton Senna and will be within touching distance of Michael Schumacher's all-time record of 68 poles this year.
• It's much more than possible that the lap record will be broken this year. Currently the fastest lap ever of Baku is 1:42.758s in qualifying and 1:46.485s in the race.
Mario Isola, head of car racing, said: "Following Monaco and Montreal, Baku is the third non-permanent, low-grip venue in succession, but it has a very different character. The lap is a lot faster, with more energy going through the tyres, and track temperatures could be very high, like last year.
"For these reasons, we've chosen a range of tyres in the middle of the spectrum, which worked well in 2016. Maybe a surprise back then was that there were no safety cars, despite predictions to the contrary, so this could be a factor to consider when formulating race strategy. With a combination of low-speed corners and long straights, it's quite hard to find the right balance, especially in terms of downforce."