F1
Lewis Larkam 7y

Monaco Grand Prix: The biggest lottery of 2017 so far?

Formula 1, AutoRacing

Focus on... Can Ferrari hit back?

The 2017 season so far has been a tale of red versus silver. Mercedes -- the previously dominant force in Formula One -- together with Ferrari, have been dicing it out for victories in the opening five races. With two wins apiece, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton are separated by just six points following Hamilton's return to form in Barcelona. Mercedes, boasting just a single win more than Ferrari, leads the Scuderia by eight points in the constructors' standings after Mercedes' radically updated W08 helped the team gain an edge over Ferrari in Spain.

Even against the modified Silver Arrows, Vettel -- relatively unhappy with the balance of his car throughout the Spanish Grand Prix weekend -- still managed to take second and could well have won had a number of factors fallen his and Ferrari's way. Monaco is a race Mercedes has dominated in recent years, having won the last four grands prix. However, as has been the case in 2017, this year's race is likely to prove to be another tight scrap between Mercedes and Ferrari. Monte Carlo's twisty streets might also open up the chance for Red Bull to close the gap to its rivals, after failing to crack F1's new aerodynamic regulations so far this year. 

Adding to the intrigue is the element of Mercedes' longer wheelbase design and whether it will be a hindrance for the team around the tight Monaco track. Mercedes' 2017 challenger comprises of a wheelbase that is 166 millimetres longer than Ferrari's, with the intention of gaining an all-important aerodynamic advantage on straights, while creating a car that should be more stable in high-speed corners such as Eau Rouge or Suzuka's 130R.

Inevitably, such a design comes at the cost of having a longer and heavier car. Could it prove the difference at circuits such as Monaco and Singapore? Hamilton expressed initial concerns over cornering at Monaco following his win in China, while teammate Valtteri Bottas does not expect it to be a big factor, citing how Mercedes was the fastest car in the twisty final sector in Barcelona. In terms of whether it will make a significant difference or not, only time will tell but it will be a fascinating factor to look out for this weekend.

In need of a win

Red Bull faces the stark prospect of a winless season -- which would mark its first since 2015 and only its second in the last eight years. Daniel Ricciardo was on stellar form in Monaco last year, claiming a stunning maiden pole, only to be denied what looked like certain victory by a pit stop blunder. Ricciardo will no doubt have double the motivation to put that right this year, though realistically he may have to wait for a first win in the principality.

Monaco's twisty streets will provide Red Bull's best hope of reducing the deficit to Mercedes and Ferrari yet, but whether it will be able to close sufficiently enough to have a real shot of victory is another matter. While progress was made in Spain with a second podium of the season -- albeit a whopping 72s down on Hamilton -- it was not the step that had been hoped for. The RB13 has so far proven to be "unlucky for some" and in a season that could turn out to be a case of consolidating third in the constructors, a win would boost everyone at Milton Keynes ahead of an expected engine upgrade in either Canada or Azerbaijan.

In need of points

Monaco presents possibly the best chance for McLaren to finally get off the mark if it can capitalise on a track which is not dependant on outright power. Fernando Alonso's absence will be felt as he attempts to win Indy 500 at the first try, but Jenson Button's experience could be crucial in the cockpit of the MCL32 around the unforgiving streets of Monte Carlo. While neither McLaren driver has scored points thus far, Stoffel Vandoorne could do with a morale-boosting performance in Monaco to bounce back from his shocker in Spain, which ended in the gravel at Turn 1 following a clumsy collision with Felipe Massa. The Belgian remains the only driver on the grid who has failed to advance past Q1 this year and goes into this weekend's race with a three-place grid penalty hanging over him. 

Points would do nicely for Jolyon Palmer, too. The Briton has been outshone by new Renault recruit Nico Hulkenberg, who has convincingly out-qualified him at every round so far in 2017. The German has steered the Enstone-based team into the points in the last three races and has already amassed six points more than Renault achieved throughout the whole of last season. Renault's RS17 is certainly capable of regular points finishes and a top ten finish in Monaco would go a long way in easing the pressure on Palmer.

ESPN prediction

 

Hamilton is going for the fabled Monaco hat-trick and back-to-back wins following his triumph last season. He returned to form with an ominous display in Spain to recover from his uncharacteristic slump in Russia and when Hamilton is on top of his game he is very difficult to beat, but Ferrari has a point to prove having lost out on the top step of the podium last time out. We expect a close fight once again, but on this occasion we are tipping Vettel -- with his marginally shorter Ferrari -- to claim pole and take his second win at Monte Carlo, delivering Ferrari its first victory around the principality since 2001 in the process.

Betting

 

Hamilton is the bookies favourite for the win in Monaco at 5/4, followed by Vettel at 11/8. If you are backing Red Bull's Ricciardo to recover from last year's disappointment and claim victory, his odds are 14/1. Lance Stroll, Vandoorne and Button are all joint favourites to be the first retirement at 9/1, with Kevin Magnussen just behind at 10/1. 

Weather

Unlike last year's race, there is no forecasted rain for the race, or indeed the whole weekend in Monaco. A smattering of clouds and a temperature of 24C is expected for practice on Thursday, while temperatures are expected to steadily increase to highs of 26C come race day on Sunday. Thursday's clouds are expected to dissipate by Friday and be replaced with bright and sunny conditions for the rest of the weekend.

Tyre facts

Available compounds: Ultra-soft, super-soft, soft

The circuit from a tyre point of view, courtesy of Pirelli:

  • It's hard to overtake in Monaco, so a strong qualifying -- by unlocking the performance of the ultra-soft already in practice -- is vital.

  • Degradation will be very low: even the ultra-soft should be able to run long stints.

  • With the lowest wear of the year as well, the window for the sole pit stop is wide open.

  • Lowest average speed of the season and also the slowest corner: Fairmont hairpin.

  • Teams run the highest downforce possible to enhance the mechanical grip from tyres.

  • With no run-off area, it's impossible to get away with any mistakes: precision is vital.

Mario Isola, head of car racing, said: "The three softest compounds are the obvious choice for Monaco, but there is still plenty of scope for strategic variation, because wear and degradation is so low that the teams can more or less choose whenever they would like to make their single pit stop from ultrasoft to supersoft, which should be the standard choice for the race. This is the first Grand Prix that the drivers have been able to select their own tyre allocations, and as expected the nominations have overwhelmingly favoured the ultrasoft. This is the tyre that will be used the most in both qualifying and the race."

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