The Big Bash League this season has entered a phase with eight of the remaining nine league games likely to have a bearing on the semi-finals match-ups. No team has secured a guaranteed place in the last four yet. However, Adelaide Strikers and Perth Scorchers are placed well to qualify for the semis. At least two places are up for grabs with Hobart Hurricanes, Melbourne Renegades and Brisbane Heat vying for two of the spots in the final four. While Sydney Thunder have an outside chance to qualify, Sydney Sixers and Melbourne Stars have been knocked out of the tournament. Here is what the teams need to do to secure their places in the last four.
Adelaide Strikers
Yet to play: Renegades, Scorchers
How they can qualify: Strikers will make their third appearance in the knockouts of the BBL if they win their match against Renegades. Should they lose both their matches, they can still qualify if Renegades beat Heat in the last league match. In that case, only four teams will end up on 12 or more points.
Most likely scenario and straight qualification - Strikers beat Renegades
Perth Scorchers
Yet to play: Hurricanes, Strikers
How they can qualify: The defending champions will qualify if they win one of their remaining two matches. They could also qualify on just 12 points if Renegades lose to Strikers, since in that case only four teams will end up with 12 or more points. But if Renegades manage to beat Strikers, Scorchers will have to qualify on net run rate if they fail to win both their remaining games. In that case, their chances improve if they don't lose either of their remaining matches by big margins.
Most likely scenario and straight qualification - Scorchers beat Hurricanes
Hobart Hurricanes
Yet to play: Scorchers, Stars
How they can qualify: Hurricanes could make their first knockouts in four seasons if they win both their remaining matches. They could also qualify just on 12 points if they win only one of their remaining two matches, and if Renegades lose to Strikers since in that case only one out of Renegades or Heat can end up on 12 points. With their negative net run rate, Hurricanes are in a disadvantageous position if they are tied on 12 points with the other teams.
Most likely scenario - Hurricanes beat Stars, Renegades lose to Strikers
Straight qualification - Hurricanes beat Scorchers and Stars
Melbourne Renegades
Yet to play: Strikers, Thunder, Heat
How they can qualify: They are the most likely team to go through to the semis among teams that are on 8 or fewer points as they have three matches left. They will qualify if they win all their remaining games. They could also qualify with just 12 points if they beat either Strikers or Thunder and then beat Heat in their last game. Qualification on net run rate is also possible if they don't beat Heat in their last match, but then they have to win their other two matches. They could qualify with 10 points on net run rate too if they manage to beat Heat by a big margin and don't lose their other matches by big margins. However, it will be difficult for them to qualify with 10 points if they don't win their match against Heat.
Most likely scenario - Renegades beat Thunder and Heat
Straight qualification - Renegades win all their remaining matches
Brisbane Heat
Yet to play: Sixers, Renegades
How they can qualify: They will qualify if they win both their remaining matches and Renegades lose against Strikers as in that case only three other teams will end up with 12 or more points. They could also qualify on net run rate on 12 points even if Renegades beat Strikers in their next match. For that to happen, they would have to thump their opponents in the remaining matches. They could also qualify on just 10 points on net run rate if other results pan out in their favour.
Most likely scenario and straight qualification - Renegades lose to Strikers, Heat win both their remaining matches
Sydney Thunder
Yet to play: Stars, Renegades
How they can qualify: With only six points and two games left to play, their chances of qualifying are remote. To start with, they will have to win both their games. Hurricanes are on 10 points and one of their remaining matches is against the bottom-placed Stars, and are likely to finish ahead of Thunder with 12 or more points. So, practically, Thunder can only hope to qualify ahead of Renegades and Heat. Their best chance will be to qualify on net run rate ahead of these two teams and so they have to win their remaining matches by huge margins. Since Heat play the Sixers, Thunder have to hope that Renegades lose to Strikers (by a huge margin) but beat Heat (by as close a margin as possible). This will result in a three-way tie on 10 points between Thunder, Renegades and Heat with the team with the best net run rate going through to the semis.
Most likely scenario - Renegades lose to Strikers (big margin) and beat Heat (small margin)