2024 NFL draft: Statistical comps for top six quarterbacks

When it comes to the NFL draft, we pretty much know two things. First, teams will overdraft quarterbacks, picking them far higher than what a more generic prospect rankings list would suggest they should. Second, a lot of these QBs will either bomb or won't be able to make their teams any better.

In the past five years, there have been 17 quarterbacks selected in the top 40 of the draft. Eleven of them have produced at least one season with a 50.0 Total QBR (equivalent to about top-20 in the NFL), which means more than one-third of them did not. Only six have had at least one season with a 60.0 Total QBR (equivalent to top-12), and only three of them -- Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert and Jordan Love, all entering their respective fifth seasons in the league -- ranked in the top 10 of the NFL's Total QBR in 2023, a list that included both five former top-10 picks and three picked 102nd or later.

Last year, the first two picks in the draft were QBs. They were almost inseparable from each other during the draft evaluation process. The top pick, Bryce Young, ranked 29th in Total QBR with a sub-60% completion rate, an 11-to-10 TD-to-INT ratio and a ghastly 62 sacks taken. The second, C.J. Stroud, produced a top-15 Total QBR, threw for more yards than more experienced former top picks like Trevor Lawrence and Matthew Stafford and even won a playoff game.

So yeah, projecting quarterbacks remains an epic crapshoot. Despite having all the data in the world at our fingertips, we aren't really any better at it than we ever were. There are just so many other factors -- the synergy between an offensive coordinator's playbook and a QB's strengths and weaknesses, the patience of the front office, the quality of the supporting cast, the culture of the organization -- that go into whether a player floats or sinks.

We could see five or six QBs picked in the first round on April 25, and at least a couple of them, maybe more, won't do much in the NFL. But if we can't project quality with much confidence, we can still use stats to tell us more about the styles, strengths and weaknesses of each of the top QBs in the draft class. What are their most unique traits? Who are they most similar to in the NFL (or from recent draft prospect lists)? What might that say about their chances of success?

Jump to a top QB prospect:
Daniels | Maye | McCarthy
Nix | Penix | Williams

Caleb Williams, USC Trojans

Ranking from Mel Kiper Jr.: No. 1 overall

Your consensus No. 1 pick has the most straightforward and impressive resume. Williams took over for Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma midway through his freshman year, generating a month of brilliance before running aground. He followed Riley to USC and barely faltered again. He won the Heisman in 2022 while throwing for 4,537 yards and leading a Trojans team, without a defense, to 11 wins. In 2023, his production trailed off a bit as the USC defense got even worse, and the team let go of the rope late in the season. Five of Williams' last six starts were losses, but USC still averaged 32 points per game in that span, and on a per-play basis he was just about as good as ever. He still finished the season 11th in Total QBR.

Most unique traits: Compared to all 331 college QBR-qualified quarterbacks from the past eight seasons, Williams nails most of the basics: He's ninth overall in Total QBR and 27th in yards per dropback. Most uniquely, however, his 1.3% interception rate ranks seventh, and his 6.6 TD-to-INT ratio (93 total TDs, 14 total INTs) ranks 10th. He makes safe choices and frequently throws very safe passes: 30.2% of his passes were thrown to targets at or behind the line of scrimmage, 47th out of 331.

There were basically two elements to a Williams' dropback. He would either throw quickly and safely to an open target, or he would improvise. Few college QBs have ever possessed the ability to so reliably escape the pocket and buy space to wait for a receiver to come open. Despite all of the quick and easy passes, it took him an average of 3.19 seconds to throw the ball. Out of the 167 QBs for which we have this data from 2016-24, only two took longer. Of recent draft prospects, only Kansas State's Skylar Thompson (3.02) and Pitt's Kenny Pickett (3.02) came anywhere close. This is by far Williams' most unique trait.

Best prospect comps: Zach Wilson and Sam Ehlinger. Williams' stats are better than both, but all three were stellar from the perspective of efficient and risk-free passes, and all three took at least 2.9 seconds per pass to throw. Williams was far more willing than Wilson to take the quick, easy passes when they presented themselves, and while Williams was a willing scrambler at times, he was more reserved than Ehlinger in this regard. But Wilson and Ehlinger were the closest to this unique recipe of patience and playmaking. If there's a reason for doubting Williams, it's that Wilson, the No. 2 pick in the 2021 draft, has never been able to turn the patience-and-playmaking thing into success at the next level. (Safe to say, neither has Ehlinger.)

Best pro comps: Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes. I looked for NFL QBs from 2014-23 who (a) took at least 2.7 seconds per pass, (b) produced at least a 3.0 TD-to-INT ratio, (c) threw at least 25% of their passes at or behind the line, (d) completed at least 63% of their career passes and (e) averaged at least 11.5 yards per completion. That's a pretty Williams-esque combination, and it gave us two of the best quarterbacks of the last decade. If there's a reason to make him the No. 1 pick, that's a pretty good one.

Jayden Daniels, LSU Tigers

Ranking from Kiper: No. 2 overall

Look at a given 2024 mock draft, and most of the names at or near the top of the list -- Williams, Drake Maye, Marvin Harrison Jr., Dallas Turner, Jared Verse, Olu Fashanu -- would have been atop mock draft lists a year ago, too. Daniels, however, was nowhere to be found on those lists. Now he's potentially going in the top two. The five-year starter was a consistent play-maker with his legs in three years with Arizona State and two with LSU, but in 2023 he reined in the downfield rushing just enough, kept his eyes downfield a little better and, with help from dynamite receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., lit college football aflame. In 12 games he averaged 318 passing yards and 103 non-sack rushing yards, a Kyler Murray-esque combination, and now he'll go near where Murray went in the 2020 draft.

Most unique traits: Even in an era of QB mobility, Daniels stood out. He scrambled on 14.2% of dropbacks (fourth out of 331), averaged 9.3 yards per scramble (20th) and finished his career with the most non-sack rushing yards (3,989) and scramble yards (2,416) in the sample. He also ran himself into trouble constantly. His 8.2% sack rate ranked 284th, and his 30.8% sacks-to-pressures ratio ranked 282nd. He indeed scrambled less in 2023, taking off a bit more selectively, and the results were obvious. But he was still among the scrambling-est QBs in college football, and that makes the college-to-pro translation a curious proposition.

Best prospect comps: Hendon Hooker and Justin Fields. I expected Kyler Murray to slot in here, but Daniels ended up aligning better with these two. Despite his extreme mobility, Murray stayed in the pocket more than Daniels and took far fewer sacks. Daniels' year-to-year progression mirrors that of Hooker to a degree: Both tamped down the rushing tendencies through the years, and both started seizing downfield opportunities in their final seasons. Hooker tore his ACL late in the 2022 season, pre-empting any Heisman chances, but those two QBs' progressions are pretty similar. And the similarities with Fields -- lots of rushing yards, high completion rate, lots of sacks -- are pretty obvious, too.

Best pro comps: It's really difficult to find good Daniels comparisons at the NFL level, especially since Hooker was seen as only so much of a prospect due to his knee injuries and his age. (He was already 25 when drafted last year.) What happens when you look at the 2014-23 NFL QBs who produced (a) a scramble rate of at least 8%, (b) a sack rate of at least 10% and (c) a completion rate of at least 60%? You get Justin Fields ... and Tommy DeVito. Turn those dials down to a 6% scramble rate and 8% completion rate, and you start getting into Deshaun Watson, Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick territory, but Daniels' tendencies were extreme. It could be said that every major prospect needs to land with just the right team and just the right offensive coordinator to succeed, but that's doubly true for Daniels.

Drake Maye, North Carolina Tar Heels

Ranking from Kiper: No. 7 overall

Maye is a far less unique prospect than Daniels, for all reasons better and worse. He stays in the pocket more, and his career stats have very few extremes: His 64.9% completion rate ranks 60th out of the 331 QBR eligible college quarterbacks dating back to 2016, his 7.5 yards per dropback ranks 62nd, and his 3.9 TD-to-INT ratio ranks 38th. That isn't necessarily elite, and his highs weren't nearly as high as Daniels', but if you're a scout or offensive coach, you're looking at the combination of stats and stature -- 6-foot-4, 223 pounds, two years of starting experience (not too many, not too few), built to star in a "prospect's pro day" environment -- and you're seeing one hell of a lump of clay to mold.

Most unique traits: Maye's overall stats grow more impressive when you consider that opponents blitzed him 32% of the time (44th-highest), and he was pressured on 34% of dropbacks (75th highest). That's far more than most other top prospects, and it forced him to prove his mobility at times. He scrambled on 11% of dropbacks (22nd) and averaged a solid 7.5 yards per scramble (97th), and unlike other prospects who trust their legs a little too much, his 20.6% sacks-to-pressures ratio was solid (145th). His mobility helps him buy time and avoid contact in a very helpful way.

His other unique trait, one that might not help him all that much in the pros: He is far more effective against zone defenses than against man. His career raw QBR against zone was 86.9 (11th overall), but his QBR against man was just 63.1 (107th). He wasn't blessed with USC's or LSU's receiving corps -- and obviously you need man-beating receivers to beat man coverage -- but with players like Josh Downs (in 2022) and Tez Walker (in 2023) he wasn't exactly lacking options either.

Among 126 QBR-eligible quarterbacks in 2023, Maye ranked 10th against zone and 105th against man. That is a unique and, considering he'll face more man coverage in the pros, not entirely encouraging combination.

Best prospect comps: Jake Browning and Jordan Ta'amu. As a prospect, he obviously grades out better than both of these players -- he is far more athletic than Browning, and Ta'amu was far more of a statue in the pocket -- but from a purely statistical standpoint, these are the guys who most closely match Maye's combination of efficiency, pressure avoidance and zone over man preferences. This is discouraging in one way -- if you're drafting a guy with a top-five pick, you'd like a higher ceiling than this. However, Browning was successful filling in for Joe Burrow with the Bengals in 2023, and Ta'amu has seen success in both the XFL and USFL. If Maye is a much more high-ceilinged version of that QB profile, there are worse comps in the world.

Best pro comps: Russell Wilson and Jalen Hurts. That's what you get when you filter for (a) a scramble rate of 7% or higher, (b) a pressure rate of 25% or higher, (c) a completion rate of 60% or higher, (d) 11.5 yards per completion or higher and (e) a better QBR against zone than man. If "Browning and Ta'amu" threw you off the scent, I'd say "Wilson and Hurts" should put you right back on it.

J.J. McCarthy, Michigan Wolverines

Ranking from Kiper: No. 14 overall

McCarthy is the Rorschach test of the 2024 draft. When you look at him, do you see a QB with absurd efficiency levels (68% career completion rate, the 15th-best career Total QBR dating back to 2016) and elite decision-making (4.5 TD-to-INT ratio, 23rd)? Or do you see a game manager who was barely asked to do anything for a team with an elite defense and brilliant run game? Whatever you see, you might be right.

Most unique traits: McCarthy was outstanding at virtually everything he was asked to do, and he had one of the easiest jobs in college football. His completion rate ranks 24th in this 331-QB sample, his Total QBR was indeed elite, and he proved extremely mobile when asked to do so (9.0 yards per scramble, 7.3 yards per non-sack carry and a well-above-average 16.6% sacks-to-pressures ratio). But he also averaged a paltry 25.8 dropbacks per start, 312th among 331 QBs.

McCarthy ran only about three times per game, and his blocking was so good that it took opponents an average of 2.95 seconds to generate pressure, just about the lowest you'll ever see for a pro prospect. None of this has to be damning, mind you -- it just results in an incomplete picture. He finished his career with 791 career dropbacks; Bo Nix had 2,115.

Best prospect comps: Stetson Bennett and Tua Tagovailoa. I wasn't looking specifically for players with great defenses (and big leads) at their disposal, but Tagovailoa and Bennett are excellent versions of guys who produced massive efficiency numbers (they're second and eighth out of 331, respectively, in Total QBR in this sample) from fewer than 29 dropbacks per game. McCarthy was basically a lower-risk version of these two, averaging fewer yards per completion but with lower interception rates and better rushing averages. His physical traits (6-foot-2, 219 pounds) are much closer to Tagovailoa's than Bennett's, and he'll be a first-round pick because of it, though the lower-risk stats perhaps suggest a higher floor and lower ceiling than what Tagovailoa brought to the table.

Best pro comps: Indeed, we'll see if higher risk and higher pressure look good on McCarthy, but a safe profile can work in the pros. What happens when you filter for (a) a 2.5 TD-to-INT ratio or higher, (b) a scramble rate under 5% and (c) a completion rate over 65%, all from (d) fewer than 35 dropbacks per game? You get Brock Purdy and a late-career Tony Romo. You can obviously win games with such a QB, at least as long as you surround him with the type of quality he had at Michigan. What happens if McCarthy lands on a bad team that asks him to throw 40-plus times per game? We have absolutely no idea.

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Bo Nix, Oregon Ducks

Ranking from Kiper: No. 5 QB

From a prospect with an incomplete sample, we now move to two of the prospects with the largest samples imaginable. Oregon's Bo Nix and Washington's Michael Penix Jr., threw 3,621 combined passes for 29,093 yards and 209 touchdowns in college, each changing their career trajectories with instant-impact transfers out west.

Nix played almost two completely different careers. In three years at Auburn, Nix was a bit of a YOLO-ball specialist, throwing 23% of his passes outside the pocket, averaging a relatively aggressive 8.2 air yards per pass attempt and 2.8 seconds to throw. He completed only 59% of his passes with a decent-not-great 69.1 Total QBR. He was capable of pretty moribund droughts. He was also capable of, well, this.

In two years at Oregon, everything was different. In an efficiency-heavy system (with a great run game at his disposal), Nix became the best nibbler in college football.

Nix averaged just 6.4 air yards per attempt and 2.6 seconds per pass in 2022-23, and he completed 75% of his passes with an outstanding 87.3 Total QBR. The combination of a new offensive system and further maturation made him a completely different quarterback. Nix's career numbers, then, will only tell so much of a tale.

Most unique traits: Nix's Oregon numbers were extreme enough that, in terms of career averages, he ended up with particularly low figures in terms of average air yardage (7.4, 300th out of 331) and downfield pass attempts (12.4% thrown 20 or more yards downfield, 269th), average pressure (24.0%, 69th) and sack rates (3.0%, 25th), and especially average interception rate (1.3%, 10th). The hero ball side never goes away, but this is most likely what you're going to get at the pro level, too.

Best prospect comps: Bailey Zappe and Trevor Lawrence. Heh, I would say that describes Nix's range pretty appropriately. Both threw at least 29% of their passes at or behind the line of scrimmage (Nix was at 31%), both got the ball out of their hands quickly (like Nix at Oregon), both escaped pressure with quick passing, and both were safe from an interceptions perspective. The difference between those two, of course, is upside. Nix's measurables aren't Lawrence's (6-2 vs. 6-6), but they're better than Zappe's, so we'll see if there's a high ceiling to match the likely high floor.

Best pro comps: Mike White and Tyson Bagent. Yeah, you need upside to survive in the pros -- you can't just nibble -- so in looking for players with Nix's profile, we don't find much. White and Bagent were the two players who came up when looking for QBs with (a) under 7.0 air yards per attempt, (b) a 62% completion rate or higher, (c) a 4.0% interception rate or lower and (d) solid escapability numbers in the form of a 20% sacks-to-pressures ratio. Again, it will come down to whether Nix can be safe and steady most of the time but deliver raw upside on occasion.

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Michael Penix Jr., Washington Huskies

Ranking from Kiper: No. 6 QB

Penix has lived an even longer football life than Nix, and his career trajectory changed even more with a 2022 transfer. He came from the same 2018 recruiting class as Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields and suffered season-ending injuries three times (including multiple ACL tears). After a dire final season at Indiana (five games, 54% completion rate, 4-7 TD-to-INT ratio), he reconnected with former offensive coordinator Kalen DeBoer at Washington and ignited. He threw for 9,544 yards and 67 touchdowns in two seasons, finished second in the 2023 Heisman voting and led Washington to the national title game thanks in part to a pair of wins over Nix's Oregon. His list of injuries is extensive, and he will turn 24 a couple of weeks after he is drafted. He also has just about the best pocket awareness you'll see from a college quarterback, and when healthy, his arm is incredible. You'll rarely find a prospect with more obvious quality traits and more obvious red flags.

Most unique traits: Penix has certainly lived a couple of football lives, like Nix, but his pressure avoidance defined a good portion of his career. His 1.9% sack rate ranks fifth out of 331, and his 6.7% sacks-to-pressure ratio ranks second. He almost never runs downfield either (his 1.8% scramble rate ranks 290th). In fact, he was one of the most likely quarterbacks in college football to turn a dropback into an actual pass.

That said, he knows how to maneuver in the pocket and/or escape it with ease. And the almost total lack of negative plays turns solid passing numbers - 103rd in completion rate (63.3%), 110th in yards per completion (12.9), 100th in TD-to-INT ratio (2.82) -- into something far stronger.

Best prospect comps: Drew Lock and Ryan Finley. Two players who also put together lengthy (and relatively up-and-down) careers as collegiate starters, took few sacks with even fewer scrambles and kept their eyes downfield and made occasional big plays. Penix's stats at UW were stronger, however, which gives you hope that he might have a higher ceiling than what either Lock or Finley have shown at the pro level. The full-career numbers, however, were awfully similar to both players.

Best pro comps: Here's another fun floor-and-ceiling pair for you: Matt Barkley and Patrick Mahomes. Both quarterbacks have produced sack rates under 4.5%, scramble rates under 6%, a strong sacks-to-pressures ratio under 15% and a success rate over 40%. One of them has shown just a little bit more upside than the other, but hey, they have combined to win three Super Bowls and two league MVPs! Solid company!